Sunday in Curragh, a needed change of pace

After the debacle I suffered in the Breeders Cup Qualifier on Saturday. Barely staying alive in the Survivor At The Shore at Monmouth, Friday and Saturday. I decided Sunday would be international day.

If you read my international pick of the day for Sunday at Hollywood Park, Ashtar, you will see I had the right continent but the wrong country. Ashtar came from Chile and looked sharp for half the race, then folded up and came in last. It was all “hunch” and should have gone with the Brazlian, Imponente Purse, the second choice at 5/2. The eventual winner.

But before all that happened, I jumped over to Ireland and played four races. I will admit it was more luck than handicapping for their forms and past performances are quite different. All in all, I picked 3 of 4 and all paid nice prices. It started off with the Irish Oaks, and went with Blue Bunting. I will spare you my written details and let you just enjoy the race.



Then onto the Survivor tourney at Monmouth, there things recovered nicely and had two winners and a second. With five weeks to go, denting the leader board is unlikely so now it is like running a marathon; just finish it without getting knocked out.

For this week, I have had two nice scores: yesterday at Parx in the 8th race. It was on turf for 5f, Optional Claimers 25K/2nl. These are difficult races for me to handicap, for the field is wide open and can make a good case for two or three. I went with Bounding Bi for three reasons, she raced on turf twice and speed figures really jumped up 84 and 82, won last out on grass placed second back in September. The deal sealer was she had a win and place at Parx. So went with the “horses for courses” angle, good grass speed and recent winner. She paid $7.60 to win.

Today, in the 8th race at Delaware Park, Maiden Claimers $30000 going 7.5f on grass. Like most of these types of races, one or two look like they are ready, but in reality, who knows, throw a dart. The favorite, and deservedly sot was President Eaton. Lightly raced 3 y/o, finished third on turf going a mile and 70. Good jockey and trainer connection, best speed of the group at 66, good workouts, and cutting back in distance, was on the lead at this distance. Then I reminded myself, maiden claimers are like women, they can look damn pretty and still break your heart, so went I digging.

I came up with a 3 y/o gelding named Circus. I will admit this was a stretch play. Good jockey in Rose, decent trainer, and used the key race angle liberally. What did catch my eye, was that it looked like the previous trainer was trying to figure out how to run him. The past performances looked jumbled and the last three races were on off courses. He did show flash of speed in two, and all previous races were at a mile. The pp’s showed him up close at the first and second call so used the cutting back in distance idea, throw in good works, and said at 5/1 m/l why not? The new trainer, Triola, has a good record with first timers under his tutelage and turf record. Circus hit the board for a $9.60!

So it proves that when you think things can’t get any worse, a change of venue can make a huge difference. Luck of the Blarney, maybe, but will take it every time.

Going international in the Sunset Hcp (G3)

There is no doubt that the Sunset Handicap (G3) is a wide open affair, with Acclamation out. You can take four of the entrants and make a strong case for each of them. The safe choice, and on that is deserved, would be to take Celtic New Year. You could debate Falcon Rock, Restless Soul and Imponente Purse having a shot at the board too. All four have placed well in graded company, even though none have won a graded event.

Taking that into consideration, and looking for a price play, am going to go International and take first time starter, Ashtar. The prevailing wisdom is to let South American turf stars get one under their belt before jumping on the bandwagon. Normally I would follow that advice. So why now? Good question.

When I look at the four serious contenders, I don’t see horses that are winners. They place well but for some reason can’t get the job done consistently, that makes them vulnerable. Ashtar is a Grade 1 and 3 winner in South America, decent pedigree, has won at this distance, good workouts at Hollywood Park and first time lasix.

One other interesting point, while I’m not one to take too much credence in weights, she is going into the Sunset with a 12 pound weight drop. Lastly, he has more wins lifetime than the rest of the field. Call it a hunch play, morning line is 8-1 and believe he will go off much higher.

With this race will say good bye to Hollywood Park and head to Del Mar!