Derby Special: Gemologist

Early last week I had some business issues that needed attending to and I decided to take the week off from handicapping as a result. Today over at horseplayersassociation.org I blogged the analysis of the Derby today. I thought I would post it here today as well.

The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby.  In fact, I took the entire week off from blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the temptation to pick the winner.  Before I begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race, and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will happen.  So let’s dive in ….

Contenders:

#15 Gemologist ML 6/1

He is five for five and seems to get better in every race.  Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here at Churchill and has no problem with the distance.  His running style fits this bunch, he can lay off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants.  Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to find anything to go against him.  You could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole to win the Kentucky Juvenile.  

#14 Hansen ML 10/1

When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question.   He does like to get out front and with the other speed in this one, it might work against him.   But then again, Dominguez is no fool and pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he breaks and how up close he gets.  Michael Maker has him primed and ready.

#4 Union Rags ML 9/2

After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch uneven over the last three.  What I do like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back.  His tactical running style fits perfectly for this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance.  The only concern might be if he stays back on the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside.  Leparoux is red hot right now and have to believe he has a plan for him.

Dark Horse:

#11 Alpha ML 15/1

Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and looks poised to go all out today.  The angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh.  Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load?  If he can, I look for him to get into a nice mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch. 

#5 Dullahan ML 8/1

Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting since he has never won a turf race.  Yes, his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth.   He has raced in big fields before and will be set up for a great closing rush.  He is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.

Bombs Away:

#2 Optimizer ML 50/1

I liked him the day he won his first outing at Saratoga.  Since then he is zero for 8 and has shown flashes of his potential.  Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that is what makes him so dangerous.   His breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a closer, it could set up perfectly for him.  If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of them.  When fields get tangled up at the top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it done.  If he is there at the turn, then it’s his for the asking.  

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/29/12

Last night at Charles Town, Raven Terms got the price but sadly we didn't get the result. Our second choice, #4 Ok Listen Up got the job done and paid a nice $9.60 return.  I will admit he was an underlay at the final odds, so would have passed on him.  If you took him, congratulations!  So we had an interesting week, one winner, Phil Dancer on Tuesday for a good payoff and a third at Calder with Goldsome at 48 to 1.

Monday:  Checkandbalances at Beulah OUT (-$12)
Tuesday:  Phil Dancer winner at Parx, net profit of $73.20
Wednesday:  Lefty's Legacy finished third at Hawthorne, no play.
Thursday: Woodford Belle, second at Keeneland  OUT (-$12)
Friday:  Goldsome third and paid a net profit of  $19.80
Saturday:  Ravens Terms at Charles Town OUT (-$12)

We started the week with a profit of $94.80.  The final tally this week was $93.00 net profit, subtracting the three outs of $36 we end up with a new net profit of $57.  That gives us a total net profit of  $151.00.

Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012

We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne.  The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play.  Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it.  I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.

So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off.  There are no listed scratches at this time.

The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace.  We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass.  When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1.  She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events.  Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3).  She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now.  I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price.  Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.

Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/13/2012

Yesterday in the Madison, Home Sweet Aspen totally tanked after the start and Ariana D finished strong for show. The odds were right for both of them so would have played $2 win, $4 place on Home Sweet Aspen and $6 show on Ariana D. So for our $12 play we would have gotten back $18.60 (Ariana D paid $6.20 to show) for a profit of $6.60.

Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000.  Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it.  If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.

He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida.  Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on.  It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise.  At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/7/2012

Yesterday in the Transylvania none of my selections did anything.  Silver Max gunned out and never looked back, I lay that race on the other jockey's underestimating Silver Max.  It looked like they all thought the speed was going to come back to them and when it didn't they were done.  We got the odds we wanted, and I would have played $6 to win on State of Play and $2 place/$4 show on Wayward Sailor. The result was a bust out.  So where does that leave us for the week?

Monday: Pharo's Gold got up for show and returned a net profit of $13.80
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday:  No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: out $12

That leaves us a net profit of a $1.80 for a cumulative total net profit of $73.80.  Today I blogged over at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/  on the Bayshore (G3) at Aqueduct.  Later this afternoon, I will post here a Saturday Night Special.

Have a great Holiday everyone!

Play of the Day: Transylvania G3 @Keeneland 4/6/2012

There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet.  Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland.  It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass.  A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one.  There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.

#1 State of Play ML 3/1

First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2.  He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park.  He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting.  The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.

#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1

This would be my price play.  I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance.  There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max?  As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help.  Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.

#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2

You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out.  The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations.  I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value.  This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.

So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.

Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon.  I would like to wish all  a great Holiday weekend.

Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012

We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On.  First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say.  Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race.  It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass.  It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.

The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1.  She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today.  Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance).  Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with  ...

#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1

She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings.  Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her.  Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill.  The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look.  I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event.  She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.

It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.  

Play of the Day: Ist Race @ Aqueduct 4/4/2012

Last night at Mountaineer, our choice Holiday Dreaming got up for a show finish, but she went the wrong way on the tote board. Morning line of 8/1 and out of the gate at 6/1. There was no value at 6/1 so there would be no play . Today, we go to Aqueduct to play one of my horses from my virtual stable.

It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th.  The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.

#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1

She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2.  Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability.  Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia,  let her gallop around and wait for another day.    I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations.  Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board.  Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.

Play of the Day: 9th Race at Mountaineer Park

I complained about getting no action last week, so what happens? We get two live ones yesterday at Turf Paradise. Southern Sculptor, has a morning line of 5/1 goes off at 11/1 and Pharo's Gold, our second choice starts at 6/1 and goes out of the gate at 16/1.  I hope you played Southern Sculptor for the  payoff was outstanding, maybe you split the bet between them? Still a good result, or if you followed my advice and took Pharo's Gold because of the higher odds, you still made out okay, $12 stack bet gets you a $25.80 return for a $13.80 profit.  Bottom line we got them in the money and off to a good start for the week.

Today, we head to Mountaineer Park, and will look at the 9th race, for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs. It's an Allowance race for non winners of 2, and no other conditions apply, purse of $20,200.

The value play here will be the #6 Holiday Dreaming ML 8/1.  She broke her maiden last out, and I know that it's a big risk playing her right back again. Several angles to play here,  she is shipping in from Laurel, moving right into an Allowance race of N2 and they put Pereira in the irons.  There is also a minor key race angle, the race on Feb24th, the 7th and 8th place horses have since won. The 8th place finisher has actually won two in a row with an improved Beyer of 41.  The last angle is Susan Clooney , she does well in Allowance/sprint races. This fillies only bad race was at a mile, and believe with the change of scenery she will make a big improvement tonight.  Big test for her, but like her hitting the board if not winning it outright.  Now let's see if we can get value for her over 8/1, would like her at 12/1+.

Play of the Day: 6st Race @ Turf Paradise 04/02/2012

We hit a nice one yesterday with Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap at the Fair Grounds. He went off at 10/1 and paid $20.60.  Since I blogged that pick over at horseplayersassociation.org I don't count it as part of this blog, but still an nice pick. Coupled with Hit It Rich winning the Orchid on Saturday, it was a real good weekend.

Now back to reality, today we are catching some rays down at Turf Paradise. This is an interesting condition. Maiden Optional Claiming ($30,000) going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass for 3YO and upwards. There are two possibles here, but the challenge is do we get the value we need? Last week we didn't get too much action, and I fear in this race we might get shut out, but let's take a shot.

#5  Southern Sculptor ML 5/1

The angle here is shipping in from Santa Anita, with three consecutive hammerings in his 4YO season.  Jeff Metz takes over as trainer, were he scores 16% on 1st timers, not a bad stat. A jockey switch and cut back in distance.  His running style says this won't help, but Metz may throw a curve and have Medina take him out. His second and third back showed a bit of speed and toss in two decent works he might be ready to fire.  To get any value here he would have to float up to 9/1, otherwise I would move to the next one.

#6 Pharo's Gold ML 6/1

This will be the fourth start for this 5YO colt. This will be his second try under Whitehouse's tutelage, and Wilton's record is zero for 14.  What I do like is that Whitehouse is razor sharp with dirt to turf and turf races.  The angle here is that he improved in his last, gets a bit more distance that might help and the Whitehouse/Lopez connection hits 29% of the time for  $4.05 ROI.  If the tote takes him to 9/1 or better I would play him over the #5.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/1/2012

In the Orchid at Gulfstream yesterday, we had Hit It Rich and she won paying $7.20 and then the Saturday Night Special we pegged For Real Too at Penn National. She came in third at 4/1, honestly not sure if I would have played her, but even with a $12 stack bet, the show payout of $4 broke us even. What is even more strange about that race is the live longshot gets bet down to the favorite!  

So last week we started out with a profit of $53.60 ...

Monday:  We hit a place finish and had a net profit of $24.40
Tuesday:  No play
Wednesday:  No play
Thursday:  No play
Friday:  Itchy fingers cost us $6

That would have left us a profit of $18.40 for a combined profit of $72.

The challenge is that I'm not gleaning through 100+ races a day to find that perfect play, I'm taking the DRF race of the day or letting my mouse do the walking, so we never know what we get. The point is that you don't have to hit everyday to grind it out. The key is to hold to what is the value for that horse and race, if you don't get it, then pass. Hopefully this week we gets some action.  Today, will be reviewing the New Orleans Handicap at FG over at horseplayersassociation.org.  That is one loaded race, and I'm still scratching my head on it.

See you all tomorrow!    

Saturday Night Special: Penn Natl 4th Race

I was scanning the entries this afternoon and found an interesting spot play.  It's the 4th race at Penn National, an Allowance race($36,000N1X) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going a mile on the dirt.  Most like the #1 for the live longshot play, and she is interesting, however when I look deeper into the lineup I found the ...

#9 For Real Too ML 8/1

The attraction is this 4YO filly, is  lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row.  She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth.  You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66.  Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins.  What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races.  In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey.  Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!

Friday Recap and blogging today

I admit I got itchy fingers yesterday and played Saratoga Yankee at 12/1. I know I said 15/1 or better but was getting tired of no action the last couple of days.  He broke slowly and then had to swing off the rail to drive for a decent effort 4th. I played a small $2 to place and $4 to show, so only a small set back.

Today I am blogging at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org  I focused on the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park.  I will do my weekly update tomorrow and then get ready for Monday. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend and cash plenty of tickets!

Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012

We are having a tough week getting any action going.  Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.

Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita.  It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill  turf for 4YO+.  Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races.  I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.

#8  Red Defense ML 3/1

There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so.  He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record.  His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board.  I like the cut back in distance  and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.

The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1

What is this our third layoff in a row?   After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.  

Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park 03/29/2012

The 5th at Hawthorne yesterday was a repeat of Tuesday. Captain Jack raced well and got a third, but he never wavered off his 5/1 morning line, so he was a no play.  That race was highly contentious, and the money got spread evenly among all the contenders, spoiling any chance for an overlay. Today there is no such problem, in fact, there maybe too many choices.

It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event.  There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".

I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.

#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1

 She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful.  You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim.  It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.

#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1

Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.

#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1

I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help.  This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.

Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1

She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances.  Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.

I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.

Play of the Day: 5th Race at Hawthorne 3/28/2012

Last night at Charles Town, Stop the Bull came in second on a dead heat. Unfortunately, he went off at his morning line of 5/1, and we needed a lot better than that to take the risk.  The selection worked but the value didn't. So in the end he would have been a no play.

Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne.  It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.

This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year.  The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72.  In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value.  The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back.  Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.

I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.

Play of the Day: 7th at Charles Town 03/27/2012

Yesterday at Turf Paradise we got King of the Sky at 14/1 off a ML of 6/1 and he finished second. He paid $9.80 for place and $5.60 to show.  With a $12 investment, the return was $36.40 for a net profit of $24.40. A good start top the week.

Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.

Where does that leave us?  the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.

There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter.  We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters.  He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.

With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned.  So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.

This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012

So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way.  Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race.  It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile.  At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it.  I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better.  The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.

The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.

This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all.  The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.

If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?  

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/25/12

Friday at Santa Anita we got our odds but like Thursday we didn't the result. The interesting thing is at the track, I shifted my entire play to the #5 Tones(IRE) ML 4/1.  When looking at the PP's he was a good looking horse, but at 4/1 there was no strong value. However, at race time he moved to 10/1 and that is an overlay. I played him with a stack bet and he came in second returning, $10.40 for place and $5.40 for show a total of $37 on a $12 investment. Sadly, that is not what I wrote, so it is a big zero for the day.

For the week we had a place and a win. We invested a total of $42, returned $65 for a profit of $23.20. The carryover from the week before was a positive $30.40 bringing our grand total so far to, $53.60.  At this pace I can buy a tank a gas! Today, I will be doing the analysis on the Sunland Derby at horseplayersassociation.org.

See you all tomorrow!

Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012

Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.

It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse.  This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it.  I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.

The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass.  Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass.  Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.

Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1.  We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher.  He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help.  Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one.  It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one?   His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.

Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1.  Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher.  The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share.  So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch.  Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall.  I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the  mix.

So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.

Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.