Today in the 6th at Parx Racing we get a great Maiden Special Weight ($45,000) angle. The race is over the dirt for 3YO's and the field of ten is going seven furlongs. The action will go to Alan Goldberg's #3 Mezzano ML 5/2. He actually should be 3/2 or better based on his first effort over the Parx course finishing 2nd and posting a 71 Beyer. It looked like the only thing preventing him from winning off the pace was room, I'm sure with Elliott taking over you'll see a different race. If we got 5/2 on him I would consider playing him as the favorite.
Thinking 5/2 won't hold on Mezzano, I'm looking at the #3 Wise Guy Charlie ML 5/1 as the play of the day. The angle is solid for today's race. Shipping in from Gulfstream Park after two efforts and heavily bet on. He gets a new trainer in the always dangerous, Chad Brown, were he wins 32% with first timers under his tutelage. He cuts him back in distance from his last race, a mile to seven furlongs, and jockey switch to Carmouche, who is winning 25% of his mounts. He likes to get out on the lead, and see no one else really challenging him out there. Toss in four solid workouts, one being a bullet, and he looks ready to graduate today. I have him as my second pick behind Mezzano at 7/2. So anything above that and he is a solid for the action.
Showing posts with label Horse Racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Horse Racing. Show all posts
Monday, May 7, 2012
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Saturday Night Special: Charles Town 8th Race 4/28/2012
On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish. Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show. His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80). Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three. They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Saturday Night Special: 6th Race Penn National 4/21/12
At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira, our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20. This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20! So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National. It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.
I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1. This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime. He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two. Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76. We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs. He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts. Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready. There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them. If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward. No matter is should be an interesting race.
I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1. This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime. He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two. Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76. We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs. He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts. Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready. There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them. If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward. No matter is should be an interesting race.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012
We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification. There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically. With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race. In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him. What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable. Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5. With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense. Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race. We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day. So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.
Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf. Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse. In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat. He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth. Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today. She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group. The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money. So the final question is to play or lay?
So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa? There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1. In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck. She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile. I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses. If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.
Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1. She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style. Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs. The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price. She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass. The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse. He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.
Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Play of the Day: 4th at Penn National 4/18/2012
We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1. He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return. That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race. It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's. The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Play of the Day: 12th at Sunland Park 4/17/2012
Yesterday in the 6th at Beulah Park, our horse Raise the Bounty went off at 4/1 which is what I penned in as his fair value. However, he ran his usual race of rating off the pace and he was too late in getting in gear. I felt Lumpkins had to rate him closer but then U Ben Thunderstruk did take off. This is one of those races we handicapped it right, got the value, but the result left us $12 out.
Today’s race is the 12th at Sunland Park, it’s the AAmigoCIH40K for 3YO+, the claiming price is $12,500. The field of eight will be going a mile and a quarter over the dirt for a purse of $40,000. The one that appeals to me the most would be the fourth favorite, #5 Catch the Bean ML 5/1.
What makes this 8YO gelding so attractive is that he is razor sharp winning two in a row and actually picked up his speed in his last outing. He has fared well at Sunland winning eight of twenty-four, with a total of fifteen times in the money. He competed in this event last year finishing fifth with a mild rally. Yes, Tricky Causeway finished third in that race, but it looks to me like Catch the Bean was fading in his form cycle. Jim Boss took him over seven races back and he has won three and has four places all in routes. Boss is a steady trainer winning 15% of his opportunities and keeps Arboleda on board, who has won two of three times riding him. Like yesterday, the big challenge for him will be the pace, for it looks like a pace less race. He has shown the ability to get forward but he prefers to stalk, the interesting point is that Arboleda doesn’t let him fall to far back. He has won two in a row in the past, but each time he went for the third there was either a layoff or a change of trainer, so this will be the first time trying without an interruption. They are bringing him back just over two weeks rest, telling me he is ready to go (or starting to roll over on his cycle but he is worth the risk). His morning line is 5/1 and that looks fair for this race. If some reason he drops below it then we pass on him and just watch.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/15/2012
Well I would have to say last week was rank. Two scratches, and only one real play. So were do we stand?
Monday: Scratched
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday: Scratched
We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.
A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80. Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night. What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski. He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.
Monday: Scratched
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday: Scratched
We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.
A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80. Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night. What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski. He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/13/2012
Yesterday in the Madison, Home Sweet Aspen totally tanked after the start and Ariana D finished strong for show. The odds were right for both of them so would have played $2 win, $4 place on Home Sweet Aspen and $6 show on Ariana D. So for our $12 play we would have gotten back $18.60 (Ariana D paid $6.20 to show) for a profit of $6.60.
Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000. Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it. If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.
He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida. Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on. It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise. At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.
Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000. Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it. If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.
He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida. Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on. It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise. At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/12/2012
Our choice yesterday, Silent Thunder went off at 6 1/2/1, not quite where we would have liked but close enough if the show pool was good enough for a decent payout. Regardless, he finished 7th after a good start and was in the hunt till the stretch and then faded badly. So we are off the board this week so far and today's race is no easy one either. Today we go to Keeneland for the 8th Race, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares 4YO+ going 7 furlongs on the synthetic. The purse is $300,000 and we have a field of 10 sprinting for it.
I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it. We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices. The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.
My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.
John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January. She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total. Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot. There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts. Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.
The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1. We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it. She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily. The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today. Those elements make her an interesting play. The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's). So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire? On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price. Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.
The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1. This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end. Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board. No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.
I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it. We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices. The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.
My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.
John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January. She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total. Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot. There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts. Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.
The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1. We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it. She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily. The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today. Those elements make her an interesting play. The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's). So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire? On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price. Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.
The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1. This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end. Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board. No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Parx Racing 4/9/2012
We got a tidy score with Race for Urga in the Wait A While Stakes at Gulfstream yesterday, she paid $6.40 for the win. I didn't expect her to go off as the favorite but at 2+/1 to win, she would have been a nice bet. Today we return to where we had our last big win, Park Racing for the 7th race. It's a claiming event for 3YO+ which have never won two races. Claiming price is $16,000 (16-14) and they are running 7 furlongs for the $26,000 purse.
There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact. The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.
This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed. There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action. Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70. I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.
It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players. Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.
There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact. The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.
This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed. There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action. Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70. I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.
It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players. Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Saturday Night Special: 4th @ Santa Anita (Matinee Special)
I took a long look at the night races across the country and nothing really popped for me, so I took the 4th at Santa Anita to play for a Matinee Special. Its a Maiden Special Weight event for 3YO for $56,000 and we are going to look outside on this one.
#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1
He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's. Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively. There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo. Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady. At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.
If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1. This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season. Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.
#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1
He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's. Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively. There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo. Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady. At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.
If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1. This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season. Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/7/2012
Yesterday in the Transylvania none of my selections did anything. Silver Max gunned out and never looked back, I lay that race on the other jockey's underestimating Silver Max. It looked like they all thought the speed was going to come back to them and when it didn't they were done. We got the odds we wanted, and I would have played $6 to win on State of Play and $2 place/$4 show on Wayward Sailor. The result was a bust out. So where does that leave us for the week?
Monday: Pharo's Gold got up for show and returned a net profit of $13.80
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: out $12
That leaves us a net profit of a $1.80 for a cumulative total net profit of $73.80. Today I blogged over at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ on the Bayshore (G3) at Aqueduct. Later this afternoon, I will post here a Saturday Night Special.
Have a great Holiday everyone!
Monday: Pharo's Gold got up for show and returned a net profit of $13.80
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: out $12
That leaves us a net profit of a $1.80 for a cumulative total net profit of $73.80. Today I blogged over at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ on the Bayshore (G3) at Aqueduct. Later this afternoon, I will post here a Saturday Night Special.
Have a great Holiday everyone!
Friday, April 6, 2012
Play of the Day: Transylvania G3 @Keeneland 4/6/2012
There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet. Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland. It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass. A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one. There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.
#1 State of Play ML 3/1
First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2. He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park. He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting. The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.
#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1
This would be my price play. I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance. There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max? As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help. Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.
#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2
You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out. The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations. I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value. This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.
So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.
Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon. I would like to wish all a great Holiday weekend.
#1 State of Play ML 3/1
First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2. He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park. He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting. The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.
#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1
This would be my price play. I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance. There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max? As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help. Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.
#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2
You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out. The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations. I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value. This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.
So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.
Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon. I would like to wish all a great Holiday weekend.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012
We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On. First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say. Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race. It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass. It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Play of the Day: Ist Race @ Aqueduct 4/4/2012
Last night at Mountaineer, our choice Holiday Dreaming got up for a show finish, but she went the wrong way on the tote board. Morning line of 8/1 and out of the gate at 6/1. There was no value at 6/1 so there would be no play . Today, we go to Aqueduct to play one of my horses from my virtual stable.
It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th. The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.
#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1
She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2. Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability. Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia, let her gallop around and wait for another day. I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations. Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board. Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.
It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th. The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.
#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1
She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2. Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability. Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia, let her gallop around and wait for another day. I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations. Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board. Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Play of the Day: 9th Race at Mountaineer Park
I complained about getting no action last week, so what happens? We get two live ones yesterday at Turf Paradise. Southern Sculptor, has a morning line of 5/1 goes off at 11/1 and Pharo's Gold, our second choice starts at 6/1 and goes out of the gate at 16/1. I hope you played Southern Sculptor for the payoff was outstanding, maybe you split the bet between them? Still a good result, or if you followed my advice and took Pharo's Gold because of the higher odds, you still made out okay, $12 stack bet gets you a $25.80 return for a $13.80 profit. Bottom line we got them in the money and off to a good start for the week.
Today, we head to Mountaineer Park, and will look at the 9th race, for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs. It's an Allowance race for non winners of 2, and no other conditions apply, purse of $20,200.
The value play here will be the #6 Holiday Dreaming ML 8/1. She broke her maiden last out, and I know that it's a big risk playing her right back again. Several angles to play here, she is shipping in from Laurel, moving right into an Allowance race of N2 and they put Pereira in the irons. There is also a minor key race angle, the race on Feb24th, the 7th and 8th place horses have since won. The 8th place finisher has actually won two in a row with an improved Beyer of 41. The last angle is Susan Clooney , she does well in Allowance/sprint races. This fillies only bad race was at a mile, and believe with the change of scenery she will make a big improvement tonight. Big test for her, but like her hitting the board if not winning it outright. Now let's see if we can get value for her over 8/1, would like her at 12/1+.
Today, we head to Mountaineer Park, and will look at the 9th race, for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs. It's an Allowance race for non winners of 2, and no other conditions apply, purse of $20,200.
The value play here will be the #6 Holiday Dreaming ML 8/1. She broke her maiden last out, and I know that it's a big risk playing her right back again. Several angles to play here, she is shipping in from Laurel, moving right into an Allowance race of N2 and they put Pereira in the irons. There is also a minor key race angle, the race on Feb24th, the 7th and 8th place horses have since won. The 8th place finisher has actually won two in a row with an improved Beyer of 41. The last angle is Susan Clooney , she does well in Allowance/sprint races. This fillies only bad race was at a mile, and believe with the change of scenery she will make a big improvement tonight. Big test for her, but like her hitting the board if not winning it outright. Now let's see if we can get value for her over 8/1, would like her at 12/1+.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Play of the Day: 6st Race @ Turf Paradise 04/02/2012
We hit a nice one yesterday with Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap at the Fair Grounds. He went off at 10/1 and paid $20.60. Since I blogged that pick over at horseplayersassociation.org I don't count it as part of this blog, but still an nice pick. Coupled with Hit It Rich winning the Orchid on Saturday, it was a real good weekend.
Now back to reality, today we are catching some rays down at Turf Paradise. This is an interesting condition. Maiden Optional Claiming ($30,000) going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass for 3YO and upwards. There are two possibles here, but the challenge is do we get the value we need? Last week we didn't get too much action, and I fear in this race we might get shut out, but let's take a shot.
#5 Southern Sculptor ML 5/1
The angle here is shipping in from Santa Anita, with three consecutive hammerings in his 4YO season. Jeff Metz takes over as trainer, were he scores 16% on 1st timers, not a bad stat. A jockey switch and cut back in distance. His running style says this won't help, but Metz may throw a curve and have Medina take him out. His second and third back showed a bit of speed and toss in two decent works he might be ready to fire. To get any value here he would have to float up to 9/1, otherwise I would move to the next one.
#6 Pharo's Gold ML 6/1
This will be the fourth start for this 5YO colt. This will be his second try under Whitehouse's tutelage, and Wilton's record is zero for 14. What I do like is that Whitehouse is razor sharp with dirt to turf and turf races. The angle here is that he improved in his last, gets a bit more distance that might help and the Whitehouse/Lopez connection hits 29% of the time for $4.05 ROI. If the tote takes him to 9/1 or better I would play him over the #5.
Now back to reality, today we are catching some rays down at Turf Paradise. This is an interesting condition. Maiden Optional Claiming ($30,000) going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass for 3YO and upwards. There are two possibles here, but the challenge is do we get the value we need? Last week we didn't get too much action, and I fear in this race we might get shut out, but let's take a shot.
#5 Southern Sculptor ML 5/1
The angle here is shipping in from Santa Anita, with three consecutive hammerings in his 4YO season. Jeff Metz takes over as trainer, were he scores 16% on 1st timers, not a bad stat. A jockey switch and cut back in distance. His running style says this won't help, but Metz may throw a curve and have Medina take him out. His second and third back showed a bit of speed and toss in two decent works he might be ready to fire. To get any value here he would have to float up to 9/1, otherwise I would move to the next one.
#6 Pharo's Gold ML 6/1
This will be the fourth start for this 5YO colt. This will be his second try under Whitehouse's tutelage, and Wilton's record is zero for 14. What I do like is that Whitehouse is razor sharp with dirt to turf and turf races. The angle here is that he improved in his last, gets a bit more distance that might help and the Whitehouse/Lopez connection hits 29% of the time for $4.05 ROI. If the tote takes him to 9/1 or better I would play him over the #5.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/1/2012
In the Orchid at Gulfstream yesterday, we had Hit It Rich and she won paying $7.20 and then the Saturday Night Special we pegged For Real Too at Penn National. She came in third at 4/1, honestly not sure if I would have played her, but even with a $12 stack bet, the show payout of $4 broke us even. What is even more strange about that race is the live longshot gets bet down to the favorite!
So last week we started out with a profit of $53.60 ...
Monday: We hit a place finish and had a net profit of $24.40
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: Itchy fingers cost us $6
That would have left us a profit of $18.40 for a combined profit of $72.
The challenge is that I'm not gleaning through 100+ races a day to find that perfect play, I'm taking the DRF race of the day or letting my mouse do the walking, so we never know what we get. The point is that you don't have to hit everyday to grind it out. The key is to hold to what is the value for that horse and race, if you don't get it, then pass. Hopefully this week we gets some action. Today, will be reviewing the New Orleans Handicap at FG over at horseplayersassociation.org. That is one loaded race, and I'm still scratching my head on it.
See you all tomorrow!
So last week we started out with a profit of $53.60 ...
Monday: We hit a place finish and had a net profit of $24.40
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: Itchy fingers cost us $6
That would have left us a profit of $18.40 for a combined profit of $72.
The challenge is that I'm not gleaning through 100+ races a day to find that perfect play, I'm taking the DRF race of the day or letting my mouse do the walking, so we never know what we get. The point is that you don't have to hit everyday to grind it out. The key is to hold to what is the value for that horse and race, if you don't get it, then pass. Hopefully this week we gets some action. Today, will be reviewing the New Orleans Handicap at FG over at horseplayersassociation.org. That is one loaded race, and I'm still scratching my head on it.
See you all tomorrow!
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Saturday Night Special: Penn Natl 4th Race
I was scanning the entries this afternoon and found an interesting spot play. It's the 4th race at Penn National, an Allowance race($36,000N1X) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going a mile on the dirt. Most like the #1 for the live longshot play, and she is interesting, however when I look deeper into the lineup I found the ...
#9 For Real Too ML 8/1
The attraction is this 4YO filly, is lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row. She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth. You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66. Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins. What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races. In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey. Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!
#9 For Real Too ML 8/1
The attraction is this 4YO filly, is lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row. She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth. You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66. Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins. What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races. In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey. Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!
Friday Recap and blogging today
I admit I got itchy fingers yesterday and played Saratoga Yankee at 12/1. I know I said 15/1 or better but was getting tired of no action the last couple of days. He broke slowly and then had to swing off the rail to drive for a decent effort 4th. I played a small $2 to place and $4 to show, so only a small set back.
Today I am blogging at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org I focused on the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park. I will do my weekly update tomorrow and then get ready for Monday. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend and cash plenty of tickets!
Today I am blogging at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org I focused on the Orchid (G3) at Gulfstream Park. I will do my weekly update tomorrow and then get ready for Monday. I hope all of you have a wonderful weekend and cash plenty of tickets!
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