Today in the 6th at Parx Racing we get a great Maiden Special Weight ($45,000) angle. The race is over the dirt for 3YO's and the field of ten is going seven furlongs. The action will go to Alan Goldberg's #3 Mezzano ML 5/2. He actually should be 3/2 or better based on his first effort over the Parx course finishing 2nd and posting a 71 Beyer. It looked like the only thing preventing him from winning off the pace was room, I'm sure with Elliott taking over you'll see a different race. If we got 5/2 on him I would consider playing him as the favorite.
Thinking 5/2 won't hold on Mezzano, I'm looking at the #3 Wise Guy Charlie ML 5/1 as the play of the day. The angle is solid for today's race. Shipping in from Gulfstream Park after two efforts and heavily bet on. He gets a new trainer in the always dangerous, Chad Brown, were he wins 32% with first timers under his tutelage. He cuts him back in distance from his last race, a mile to seven furlongs, and jockey switch to Carmouche, who is winning 25% of his mounts. He likes to get out on the lead, and see no one else really challenging him out there. Toss in four solid workouts, one being a bullet, and he looks ready to graduate today. I have him as my second pick behind Mezzano at 7/2. So anything above that and he is a solid for the action.
Showing posts with label Play of the day. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Play of the day. Show all posts
Monday, May 7, 2012
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Derby Special: Gemologist
Early last week I had some business issues that needed attending to and I decided to take the week off from handicapping as a result. Today over at horseplayersassociation.org I blogged the analysis of the Derby today. I thought I would post it here today as well.
The first Saturday in May has arrived and I had promised
myself that I wasn’t going to handicap the Kentucky Derby. In fact, I took the entire week off from
blogging at my site to avoid it, and when all said and done, I can’t resist the
temptation to pick the winner. Before I
begin, I will say that most of the entrants have the ability to win this race,
and as we know, when you have fields this big (20) anything can and will
happen. So let’s dive in ….
Contenders:
#15 Gemologist ML 6/1
He is five for five and seems to get better in every
race. Pletcher’s 3YO has won twice here
at Churchill and has no problem with the distance. His running style fits this bunch, he can lay
off the pace or take it to the wire if he wants. Workouts have been solid and it’s hard to
find anything to go against him. You
could say the post position is a bit troubling, but he came off the ninth hole
to win the Kentucky Juvenile.
#14 Hansen ML 10/1
When he won the BC Juvenile here in November he beat eight
other entrants today. Distance and speed are not in question. He does like to get out front and with the
other speed in this one, it might work against him. But then again, Dominguez is no fool and
pressed in the Gotham and won it, so it will be interesting to see how he
breaks and how up close he gets. Michael
Maker has him primed and ready.
#4 Union Rags ML 9/2
After winning three in a row he has shown to be a touch
uneven over the last three. What I do
like is whenever there has been a break in his racing he wins coming back. His tactical running style fits perfectly for
this race and I see no issue with his speed or going this distance. The only concern might be if he stays back on
the break he could get jammed up with the pack coming in from the outside. Leparoux is red hot right now and have to
believe he has a plan for him.
Dark Horse:
#11 Alpha ML 15/1
Since the BC Juvenile he has really found a nice groove and
looks poised to go all out today. The
angle here is that he is improving, McLaughlin has a real strong record with
second off a layoff and we get a jockey switch to Maragh. Now the problem will be can Maragh keep him
steady in the gate while waiting for the others to load? If he can, I look for him to get into a nice
mid pack position and pounce on the pace entering the stretch.
#5 Dullahan ML 8/1
Everybody says he is a turf horse, which is interesting
since he has never won a turf race. Yes,
his wins are over synthetic and for me that has no bearing on today. His two
races as a 3YO have been at a mile and an eighth. He has raced in big fields before and will
be set up for a great closing rush. He
is a mystery horse and would call him dangerous in this situation.
Bombs Away:
#2 Optimizer ML 50/1
I liked him the day he won his first outing at
Saratoga. Since then he is zero for 8
and has shown flashes of his potential.
Today there is no pressure, for no one expects anything of him, and that
is what makes him so dangerous. His
breeding says he can nail this distance and with this big field and being a
closer, it could set up perfectly for him.
If the pace gets heated and the stalkers falter, he could blow by all of
them. When fields get tangled up at the
top of the stretch it’s the one that swings wide off the pace that can get it
done. If he is there at the turn, then
it’s his for the asking.
Monday, April 30, 2012
No Play of the Day: Monday and Tuesday
Due to some business obligations I will not be blogging today or tomorrow. Will return on Wednesday.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Saturday Night Special: Charles Town 8th Race 4/28/2012
On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish. Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show. His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80). Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three. They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Play of the Day: 5th Race at Calder 4/27/2012
In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose. Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.
There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1. He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start. His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it. He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed. Adding Jara only helps the cause.
The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park. He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more. Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today. Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board. In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F. The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.
The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1. This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race. First off we get a stretch out and surface change. Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers. In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today. Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will. He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.
Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!
There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1. He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start. His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it. He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed. Adding Jara only helps the cause.
The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park. He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more. Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today. Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board. In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F. The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.
The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1. This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race. First off we get a stretch out and surface change. Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers. In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today. Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will. He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.
Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012
We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne. The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play. Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it. I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.
So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off. There are no listed scratches at this time.
The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace. We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass. When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1. She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events. Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3). She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now. I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price. Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.
So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off. There are no listed scratches at this time.
The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace. We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass. When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1. She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events. Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3). She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now. I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price. Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Play of the Day: 6th Race at Hawthorne 4/25/2012
At Parx yesterday our selection, Phil Dancer got the odds we wanted and more importantly we got the result too! He ran an excellent trip and scored a $14.20 winning ticket. With a $12 win bet that would have been a $85.20 return for a net profit of $73.20. Today we head back to Chicago to Hawthorne for the 6th race. It's an Allowance event ($35,000N1X) for state bred fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards going a mile on grass.
This is one of those fields you could call lesser of evils, for no one here looks like a clear winner. I'm leaning towards #2 Little Frances ML 5/2 (should be more like 3/1). I normally don't like first time starters on grass but its hard to ignore her winning longer here at Hawthorne back in November. This also will be her second start as a 4YO and under Michael Reavis, who is an outstanding trainer here in the Midwest. She has held her own in this level on dirt, her running style works well here and Thornton is on board again. You can also add in the "blinkers off" and you have an interesting opportunity. The issue will be the odds, she will get bet down with the #5 Prima Donna Pirate ML 2/1 and that will take care of that.
For this race, I'll go outside. #4 Lefty's Legacy ML 10/1 (that's a fair price) will be my pick. Taking a maiden winner is always risky but she broke her maiden at this distance on grass at Hawthorne a week back. Frank Kirby spins her right back in her first non winners of one and she showed big improvement in her speed fig's. Kirby is one of the better trainers and to wheel her right back shows she has more in the tank. She is the lone speed here and could find herself going wire to wire against this crowd.
Now if you want to go for a real dark horse and a big price, I'll take the #7 Live Today ML 20/1. This 5YO has had a rough go the last two years racing in dirt sprints outside of Illinois. Going back to her 3YO career she won at this distance on grass at Arlington under Christine Janks, who she rejoins with again today. This mare showed promise back then and sadly got lost in the claiming shuffle. So there is a big angle here with a new trainer (who had done well with her in the past), jockey switch, surface/distance change and adding blinkers. Janks has been working her steadily and could get up for a piece of the action. I'll be rooting for her to find her way back, hoping the past two years didn't destroy her confidence or heart for racing.
This is one of those fields you could call lesser of evils, for no one here looks like a clear winner. I'm leaning towards #2 Little Frances ML 5/2 (should be more like 3/1). I normally don't like first time starters on grass but its hard to ignore her winning longer here at Hawthorne back in November. This also will be her second start as a 4YO and under Michael Reavis, who is an outstanding trainer here in the Midwest. She has held her own in this level on dirt, her running style works well here and Thornton is on board again. You can also add in the "blinkers off" and you have an interesting opportunity. The issue will be the odds, she will get bet down with the #5 Prima Donna Pirate ML 2/1 and that will take care of that.
For this race, I'll go outside. #4 Lefty's Legacy ML 10/1 (that's a fair price) will be my pick. Taking a maiden winner is always risky but she broke her maiden at this distance on grass at Hawthorne a week back. Frank Kirby spins her right back in her first non winners of one and she showed big improvement in her speed fig's. Kirby is one of the better trainers and to wheel her right back shows she has more in the tank. She is the lone speed here and could find herself going wire to wire against this crowd.
Now if you want to go for a real dark horse and a big price, I'll take the #7 Live Today ML 20/1. This 5YO has had a rough go the last two years racing in dirt sprints outside of Illinois. Going back to her 3YO career she won at this distance on grass at Arlington under Christine Janks, who she rejoins with again today. This mare showed promise back then and sadly got lost in the claiming shuffle. So there is a big angle here with a new trainer (who had done well with her in the past), jockey switch, surface/distance change and adding blinkers. Janks has been working her steadily and could get up for a piece of the action. I'll be rooting for her to find her way back, hoping the past two years didn't destroy her confidence or heart for racing.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Play of the day: 6th Race at Beulah 4/23/2012
The DRF tossed up a low level claiming race today. I normally don't handicap them and thought it would be a neat challenge to take a crack at this one. It's for 3YO and upwards going six furlongs on dirt. The conditions are non winners of two since April 23, 2011, claiming price is $3500. One other condition that horses entered for races of $2500 or less, those races are excluded. That's why you see a couple of runners today with two wins and one of them recently.
Seven have entered and I've got it down to four, I'm going to start with my pick.
#6 Checksandbalances ML 3/1
I have gone back and forth between this 6YO and the #1 High Intellect. The reasons I'm leaning to him is that he has really been running well at Beulah since shipping from PA. He has won two for four at this distance, and the other two he was close in both on off tracks. The angle today is that he gets a new trainer in Juan Aguirre, who is one of the top trainers at Beulah. In fact, he wins 42% with first timers. He won at the $4000 level back at Penn National and is trying this group after almost winning one in the mud. His speed is comparable to the rest, likes to press close to the pace and can go wire to wire. Aguirre keeps Hernandez in the irons, were they hit 38% of the time. 3/1 is a decent price but would like 7/2 or better.
#1 High Impact ML 5/2
Here is another one that found his level after shipping in from the West Coast. Since Charlie Lawson took over this 7YO has won two straight at the $2500 with improving speed. He has been on a short break and posted a bullet work, Lawson wins 21% of the time with layoffs. He likes to stalk the pace, and with no speed this could be an issue, if he stays close he could get it done.
#4 Frantic Domer ML 2/1
He has won two of seven in 2012, his last being a $5000N4L. So that would give him the class edge but his form cycle seems to be short. His last two efforts were at the $3500N2y and $35003y both ending in place finishes. His past Beyer's have never been above 52 and would need a big improvement to beat some of these salter competitors. He likes to press the front and with seven of nine on the board at Beulah you can't ignore him. Just not sure as the morning line favorite is worth the risk/reward.
#5 Atswhatisaid ML 6/1
Won at this level two back in the mud, then stepped up to non winners of three and finished fifth on a late rally. He is the closer in this crowd which makes him dangerous and Joe Poole does well in claiming races with a 21% win record. So dropping back down a level might suit him today. The concern I have is that he has only won once at six furlongs in ten attempts. But then again with little speed in this race he could blow right by them if the pace doesn't grind him down. 6/1 is a fair morning line but would be more interested if we got 8/1 or better.
In the end, unless there is a real swing in the odds somewhere, I will take my chances on #6 Checksandbalances.
Seven have entered and I've got it down to four, I'm going to start with my pick.
#6 Checksandbalances ML 3/1
I have gone back and forth between this 6YO and the #1 High Intellect. The reasons I'm leaning to him is that he has really been running well at Beulah since shipping from PA. He has won two for four at this distance, and the other two he was close in both on off tracks. The angle today is that he gets a new trainer in Juan Aguirre, who is one of the top trainers at Beulah. In fact, he wins 42% with first timers. He won at the $4000 level back at Penn National and is trying this group after almost winning one in the mud. His speed is comparable to the rest, likes to press close to the pace and can go wire to wire. Aguirre keeps Hernandez in the irons, were they hit 38% of the time. 3/1 is a decent price but would like 7/2 or better.
#1 High Impact ML 5/2
Here is another one that found his level after shipping in from the West Coast. Since Charlie Lawson took over this 7YO has won two straight at the $2500 with improving speed. He has been on a short break and posted a bullet work, Lawson wins 21% of the time with layoffs. He likes to stalk the pace, and with no speed this could be an issue, if he stays close he could get it done.
#4 Frantic Domer ML 2/1
He has won two of seven in 2012, his last being a $5000N4L. So that would give him the class edge but his form cycle seems to be short. His last two efforts were at the $3500N2y and $35003y both ending in place finishes. His past Beyer's have never been above 52 and would need a big improvement to beat some of these salter competitors. He likes to press the front and with seven of nine on the board at Beulah you can't ignore him. Just not sure as the morning line favorite is worth the risk/reward.
#5 Atswhatisaid ML 6/1
Won at this level two back in the mud, then stepped up to non winners of three and finished fifth on a late rally. He is the closer in this crowd which makes him dangerous and Joe Poole does well in claiming races with a 21% win record. So dropping back down a level might suit him today. The concern I have is that he has only won once at six furlongs in ten attempts. But then again with little speed in this race he could blow right by them if the pace doesn't grind him down. 6/1 is a fair morning line but would be more interested if we got 8/1 or better.
In the end, unless there is a real swing in the odds somewhere, I will take my chances on #6 Checksandbalances.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/22/2012
We finished off the week with our fourth win in a row with Sleeping Tiger winning at Penn National last night. Not real excited about the odds of 3/1 but with the scratches it would have been a fair price in the end. So we had a week of two thirds for no return and four winners! Three of them paid a nice net profit, the other did as well but I got greedy and ended up making almost nothing, well sixty cents is really nothing.
Monday: Raise the Bounty finished third, no play
Tuesday: Catch The Bean finished third, net loss $3.00
Wednesday: Becca's Run, winner and net profit of $19.20
Thursday: Datatthespa winner, bet on Firehouse Red and he finished fourth, net profit $.60
Friday: Shakeria winner, net profit $37.20
Saturday: Sleeping Tiger winner, net profit $40.80
The assumption is a $12 win bet. The exceptions are Dayatthespa where I played $6 to win and a $6 show bet on Firehouse Red, and Catch the Bean where I spread the $12 over win, place and show. Net profit means monies left after taking back our initial wager. We started the week with a positive bank roll of $80.40 and this week netted $94.80 for a new balance of $175.20.
Monday: Raise the Bounty finished third, no play
Tuesday: Catch The Bean finished third, net loss $3.00
Wednesday: Becca's Run, winner and net profit of $19.20
Thursday: Datatthespa winner, bet on Firehouse Red and he finished fourth, net profit $.60
Friday: Shakeria winner, net profit $37.20
Saturday: Sleeping Tiger winner, net profit $40.80
The assumption is a $12 win bet. The exceptions are Dayatthespa where I played $6 to win and a $6 show bet on Firehouse Red, and Catch the Bean where I spread the $12 over win, place and show. Net profit means monies left after taking back our initial wager. We started the week with a positive bank roll of $80.40 and this week netted $94.80 for a new balance of $175.20.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012
There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday. Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change. Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!
Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning. Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.
The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5. She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December. Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today. So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.
Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1. The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP. The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride. She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart? The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim. He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play. Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.
On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable. She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race. You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow. Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off. She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.
From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1. She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race. I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.
Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning. Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.
The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5. She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December. Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today. So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.
Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1. The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP. The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride. She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart? The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim. He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play. Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.
On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable. She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race. You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow. Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off. She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.
From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1. She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race. I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012
We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification. There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically. With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race. In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him. What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable. Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5. With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense. Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race. We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day. So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.
Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf. Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse. In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat. He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth. Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today. She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group. The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money. So the final question is to play or lay?
So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa? There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1. In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck. She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile. I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses. If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.
Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1. She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style. Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs. The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price. She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass. The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse. He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.
Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Play of the Day: 4th at Penn National 4/18/2012
We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1. He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return. That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race. It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's. The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Play of the Day: 12th at Sunland Park 4/17/2012
Yesterday in the 6th at Beulah Park, our horse Raise the Bounty went off at 4/1 which is what I penned in as his fair value. However, he ran his usual race of rating off the pace and he was too late in getting in gear. I felt Lumpkins had to rate him closer but then U Ben Thunderstruk did take off. This is one of those races we handicapped it right, got the value, but the result left us $12 out.
Today’s race is the 12th at Sunland Park, it’s the AAmigoCIH40K for 3YO+, the claiming price is $12,500. The field of eight will be going a mile and a quarter over the dirt for a purse of $40,000. The one that appeals to me the most would be the fourth favorite, #5 Catch the Bean ML 5/1.
What makes this 8YO gelding so attractive is that he is razor sharp winning two in a row and actually picked up his speed in his last outing. He has fared well at Sunland winning eight of twenty-four, with a total of fifteen times in the money. He competed in this event last year finishing fifth with a mild rally. Yes, Tricky Causeway finished third in that race, but it looks to me like Catch the Bean was fading in his form cycle. Jim Boss took him over seven races back and he has won three and has four places all in routes. Boss is a steady trainer winning 15% of his opportunities and keeps Arboleda on board, who has won two of three times riding him. Like yesterday, the big challenge for him will be the pace, for it looks like a pace less race. He has shown the ability to get forward but he prefers to stalk, the interesting point is that Arboleda doesn’t let him fall to far back. He has won two in a row in the past, but each time he went for the third there was either a layoff or a change of trainer, so this will be the first time trying without an interruption. They are bringing him back just over two weeks rest, telling me he is ready to go (or starting to roll over on his cycle but he is worth the risk). His morning line is 5/1 and that looks fair for this race. If some reason he drops below it then we pass on him and just watch.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/15/2012
Well I would have to say last week was rank. Two scratches, and only one real play. So were do we stand?
Monday: Scratched
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday: Scratched
We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.
A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80. Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night. What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski. He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.
Monday: Scratched
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday: Scratched
We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.
A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80. Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night. What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski. He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/13/2012
Yesterday in the Madison, Home Sweet Aspen totally tanked after the start and Ariana D finished strong for show. The odds were right for both of them so would have played $2 win, $4 place on Home Sweet Aspen and $6 show on Ariana D. So for our $12 play we would have gotten back $18.60 (Ariana D paid $6.20 to show) for a profit of $6.60.
Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000. Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it. If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.
He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida. Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on. It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise. At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.
Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000. Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it. If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.
He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida. Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on. It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise. At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/12/2012
Our choice yesterday, Silent Thunder went off at 6 1/2/1, not quite where we would have liked but close enough if the show pool was good enough for a decent payout. Regardless, he finished 7th after a good start and was in the hunt till the stretch and then faded badly. So we are off the board this week so far and today's race is no easy one either. Today we go to Keeneland for the 8th Race, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares 4YO+ going 7 furlongs on the synthetic. The purse is $300,000 and we have a field of 10 sprinting for it.
I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it. We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices. The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.
My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.
John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January. She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total. Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot. There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts. Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.
The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1. We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it. She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily. The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today. Those elements make her an interesting play. The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's). So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire? On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price. Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.
The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1. This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end. Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board. No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.
I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it. We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices. The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.
My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.
John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January. She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total. Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot. There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts. Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.
The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1. We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it. She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily. The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today. Those elements make her an interesting play. The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's). So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire? On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price. Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.
The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1. This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end. Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board. No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Play of the Day:7th Race @ Aqueduct 4/11/2012
Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20. The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely. You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20. Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.
Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile. The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).
There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle. Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.
He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga. His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off. His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form. He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today. The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now. 5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.
Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile. The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).
There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle. Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.
He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga. His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off. His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form. He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today. The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now. 5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Charles Town 4/10/2012
Okay, so I checked TVG this morning and there were no scratches for the 8th Race tonight at Charles Town. It's an Allowance race for fillies and mares 3YO+ for non winners of 2 or which have broken their maiden at Charles Town or for a claiming price. The purse is $26,000 and they are going 41/2 furlongs in this sprint.
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
Monday, April 9, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Parx Racing 4/9/2012
We got a tidy score with Race for Urga in the Wait A While Stakes at Gulfstream yesterday, she paid $6.40 for the win. I didn't expect her to go off as the favorite but at 2+/1 to win, she would have been a nice bet. Today we return to where we had our last big win, Park Racing for the 7th race. It's a claiming event for 3YO+ which have never won two races. Claiming price is $16,000 (16-14) and they are running 7 furlongs for the $26,000 purse.
There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact. The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.
This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed. There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action. Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70. I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.
It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players. Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.
There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact. The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.
This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed. There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action. Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70. I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.
It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players. Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Play of the Day: Transylvania G3 @Keeneland 4/6/2012
There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet. Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland. It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass. A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one. There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.
#1 State of Play ML 3/1
First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2. He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park. He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting. The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.
#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1
This would be my price play. I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance. There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max? As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help. Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.
#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2
You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out. The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations. I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value. This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.
So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.
Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon. I would like to wish all a great Holiday weekend.
#1 State of Play ML 3/1
First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2. He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park. He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting. The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.
#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1
This would be my price play. I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance. There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max? As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help. Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.
#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2
You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out. The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations. I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value. This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.
So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.
Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon. I would like to wish all a great Holiday weekend.
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