We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne. The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play. Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it. I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.
So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off. There are no listed scratches at this time.
The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace. We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass. When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1. She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events. Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3). She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now. I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price. Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.
Showing posts with label stake races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stake races. Show all posts
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012
We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification. There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically. With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race. In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him. What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable. Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5. With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense. Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race. We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day. So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.
Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf. Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse. In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat. He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth. Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today. She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group. The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money. So the final question is to play or lay?
So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa? There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1. In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck. She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile. I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses. If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.
Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1. She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style. Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs. The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price. She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass. The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse. He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.
Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/12/2012
Our choice yesterday, Silent Thunder went off at 6 1/2/1, not quite where we would have liked but close enough if the show pool was good enough for a decent payout. Regardless, he finished 7th after a good start and was in the hunt till the stretch and then faded badly. So we are off the board this week so far and today's race is no easy one either. Today we go to Keeneland for the 8th Race, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares 4YO+ going 7 furlongs on the synthetic. The purse is $300,000 and we have a field of 10 sprinting for it.
I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it. We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices. The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.
My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.
John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January. She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total. Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot. There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts. Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.
The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1. We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it. She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily. The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today. Those elements make her an interesting play. The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's). So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire? On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price. Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.
The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1. This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end. Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board. No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.
I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it. We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices. The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.
My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.
John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January. She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total. Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot. There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts. Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.
The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1. We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it. She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily. The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today. Those elements make her an interesting play. The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's). So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire? On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price. Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.
The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1. This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end. Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board. No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012
Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Pick of the Day: 8th @Aqueduct 03/21/12
We had a nice score yesterday at Parx, with Schist winning, paying $20.00! and we got our 9/1 so a stack bet would have been played. A $12.00 investment would have returned, $43.60, giving us a profit of $31.60. So far this week, we have a place and a win, not too bad of a start. Today, we go to Aqueduct and look at the Lynclar Stakes ($75K) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going 6 Furlongs. There are several good horses in this field, and I like the #5 Strike the Moon ML 5/1, if we could get better than 5/1 I might be inclined to play her. I'm sure the tote will not give us any value on her, so I looked outside for anyone to upset the top contenders.
The one that fits the bill is #6 Isn't She Grand ML 10/1
She is one tough 5YO with two wins in her last three on the inner track at Aqueduct. Her speed is comparable to these, even though she does get wonky at times. She has some decent efforts at this level, and has won two in a row at the starter level. I like horses that are sharp and moving back up a notch. Rudy Rodriguez has a solid record with horses winning their last outings, and I do like that Velasquez is still in the irons. She will hustle to the front, and has a way of winning. If the tote floats over 10/1 it would be an interesting proposition, any thing less no play.
The one that fits the bill is #6 Isn't She Grand ML 10/1
She is one tough 5YO with two wins in her last three on the inner track at Aqueduct. Her speed is comparable to these, even though she does get wonky at times. She has some decent efforts at this level, and has won two in a row at the starter level. I like horses that are sharp and moving back up a notch. Rudy Rodriguez has a solid record with horses winning their last outings, and I do like that Velasquez is still in the irons. She will hustle to the front, and has a way of winning. If the tote floats over 10/1 it would be an interesting proposition, any thing less no play.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Saratoga Quick Call
Today at Saratoga we have the Quick Call Stakes with a Purse of $75,000 for 3 y/o’s going 5.5f on Turf. This field is loaded with great up and coming 3 y/o turf sprinters. Of the 11 entrants, seven are speed burners; all have great Beyers and solid pedigrees. When you look at the connections for this race, it reads like a who’s who of thoroughbred racing. There are a lot of angles you can play here, you could eliminate a few based on pole position. Most statistics show the one hole to be a deathtrap at Saratoga, so maybe question mark Nutmegcuveeroyale and Fastest Magician. That feels strange to discount horses from Linda Rice and Barclay Tagg!
You could look at the class factor and scratch off: Higher Court, Run Arnie Run, Schmooz Talker and Fudgesicle, based on them not winning anything more than allowance or maiden races. That leaves us with five contenders. Now the challenge is which one can get to the front and hold up on the Saratoga turf? What if it rains? The grass goes to good or off the turf? This is one of those races you might think to pass on, watch for the ones that are improving and place them in your stable. But then, what fun is that? So here goes my selection …
Royal Currier is where I am headed. He has 12 races under his belt, winning six of them. Last out at Monmouth was his first turf sprint and won 1 ¼ lengths. The Beyer for that first turf race was pedestrian in relation to this group, but going to stick with some intangibles this time. They are as follows:
• Patricia Farro is an excellent turf sprint trainer (21 for 52 with a ROI over $4.00). She scratched him out of a $150K stakes race back on July 3rd and now he is in Saratoga. Not sure if she brought a string or not, but she has no other entries today. I didn’t have time to check my Saratoga sources to find out.
• Shipping in from Monmouth, why? Tomorrow at Monmouth there is a $65k Stakes race, but she brings him up to Saratoga for $75K race. She could have stayed home, and it is Haskell weekend at Monmouth. Was this a targeted race for him?
• In 11 of his 12 races, one of the top three has gone on to win again. I do like the key race factor.
• Bravo comes with him and it’s his only mount for the day. At Monmouth he is one of the best on turf. He is on the Monmouth card tomorrow, so one and done at Saratoga.
• Royal Currier is versatile; he can go to the front or just sit off the pace. He also draws a nice post position coming out of the sixth slot. With a morning line of 5/1, he should get a nice price maybe slip to an overlay.
Today, I go with instincts in a very tough race. Like his experience, knows how to win, raced against winners, and excellent connections. Lastly, have to ask myself, what is Farro up to? She’s not here for a vacation that I do know.
You could look at the class factor and scratch off: Higher Court, Run Arnie Run, Schmooz Talker and Fudgesicle, based on them not winning anything more than allowance or maiden races. That leaves us with five contenders. Now the challenge is which one can get to the front and hold up on the Saratoga turf? What if it rains? The grass goes to good or off the turf? This is one of those races you might think to pass on, watch for the ones that are improving and place them in your stable. But then, what fun is that? So here goes my selection …
Royal Currier is where I am headed. He has 12 races under his belt, winning six of them. Last out at Monmouth was his first turf sprint and won 1 ¼ lengths. The Beyer for that first turf race was pedestrian in relation to this group, but going to stick with some intangibles this time. They are as follows:
• Patricia Farro is an excellent turf sprint trainer (21 for 52 with a ROI over $4.00). She scratched him out of a $150K stakes race back on July 3rd and now he is in Saratoga. Not sure if she brought a string or not, but she has no other entries today. I didn’t have time to check my Saratoga sources to find out.
• Shipping in from Monmouth, why? Tomorrow at Monmouth there is a $65k Stakes race, but she brings him up to Saratoga for $75K race. She could have stayed home, and it is Haskell weekend at Monmouth. Was this a targeted race for him?
• In 11 of his 12 races, one of the top three has gone on to win again. I do like the key race factor.
• Bravo comes with him and it’s his only mount for the day. At Monmouth he is one of the best on turf. He is on the Monmouth card tomorrow, so one and done at Saratoga.
• Royal Currier is versatile; he can go to the front or just sit off the pace. He also draws a nice post position coming out of the sixth slot. With a morning line of 5/1, he should get a nice price maybe slip to an overlay.
Today, I go with instincts in a very tough race. Like his experience, knows how to win, raced against winners, and excellent connections. Lastly, have to ask myself, what is Farro up to? She’s not here for a vacation that I do know.
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