On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish. Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show. His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80). Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three. They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
Showing posts with label Charles Town. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charles Town. Show all posts
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/15/2012
Well I would have to say last week was rank. Two scratches, and only one real play. So were do we stand?
Monday: Scratched
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday: Scratched
We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.
A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80. Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night. What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski. He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.
Monday: Scratched
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday: No play
Thursday: Ariana D gave us a show play and paid us $18.60 on a $6 show wager. Profit of $6.60.
Friday: Scratched
We started the week with a Net Profit of $73.80 and adding our $6.60 brings us to $80.40.
A couple weekend notes, yesterday at the Charles Town Classic, my dark horse selection, Caixa Eletronica won paying $18.80. Also, Magical Feeling won the Sugar Maple at Charles Town last night. What is significant about that is his trainer, Allen Iwinski. He is one of the most underrated trainers on the east coast. I have him in my virtual stable so when he pops up I give his horses a long look.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Charles Town 4/10/2012
Okay, so I checked TVG this morning and there were no scratches for the 8th Race tonight at Charles Town. It's an Allowance race for fillies and mares 3YO+ for non winners of 2 or which have broken their maiden at Charles Town or for a claiming price. The purse is $26,000 and they are going 41/2 furlongs in this sprint.
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Charles Town 03/27/2012
Yesterday at Turf Paradise we got King of the Sky at 14/1 off a ML of 6/1 and he finished second. He paid $9.80 for place and $5.60 to show. With a $12 investment, the return was $36.40 for a net profit of $24.40. A good start top the week.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/17/12
Going to change how I recap the week. To get a better gauge how we are doing, I will list each race and the money won or lost.
Monday: Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.
Tuesday: Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.
Wednesday: Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.
Thursday: Sportswriter at Aqueduct. No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).
Friday: Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.
Bet: $26 Cashed: $56.40 Profit: $30.40
Monday: Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.
Tuesday: Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.
Wednesday: Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.
Thursday: Sportswriter at Aqueduct. No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).
Friday: Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.
Bet: $26 Cashed: $56.40 Profit: $30.40
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th Race Charles Town for 03/13/12
The race yesterday at Turf Paradise turned out to be a bust. Not only didn't we get the odds on Hay Gear but he also ran up the track on us. He had a morning line of 5/1 and expected him to go off at 8/1 or higher. In the end he was bet down to 3/1 taking all the value out of the play of the day. Picking winners is hard enough, but if we are going to go down, at least let's get our price.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
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