Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections & $2 Miller Lites

Last Wednesday was a near miss. We had the first three races in the bag going into the dreaded single. I had selected Maranatha Hanover but also mentioned that Maladar would be tough, and tough he was winning the race. Maladar went off at 5/1 and paid $12.40 to win and the Pick 4 paid out $288.20. So if you added Maladar to your ticket, making it a $48 play you would had an excellent return. I’m going to remind all readers that the Pick 4 is the best value play in horse racing, and at many tracks the takeout is low. Here at Balmoral it’s only 14%! It just shows that with a small investment and tight handicapping you can score some nice returns … consistently. In time I will go back and figure out if I added those horses I mentioned but didn’t add, and increase my tickets how many Pick 4’s would I’d hit so far. Maybe by next Wednesday have those numbers.

So tonight is the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral. Races 10 through 13 and this card is very difficult to play on $24, so more luck will be needed tonight. So enjoy those $2 Miller Lites and $2 grill and here we go with tonight’s selections:

Race 10 #3 Waltakawalcek ML 10/1 #5 Cole Snap ML 5/2 #6 Bell Valley Bill ML 3/1

I like Cole Snap in this race, consistent speed figures, the last two races were strong finishes and just missed. The connections are strong and look perfect to grab the winners circle tonight. This gelding’s speed and class numbers are the tops of this group.

Race 11 #8 Mattoutflying ML 8/1

The #8 is shipping in from Indy and has done well in the claiming ranks posting strong speed figures. Now in the NW class and should dominate this group Marcus Miller is driving and has had good success in the past. Going to single here even though Voomerang will be looming.

Race 12 #3 Parked Onda Street ML 8/1 #6 My Boy Luke ML 3/1 #10 Onhishonor Hanover 4/1

The #6 My Boy Luke has the speed and class edge here. Nice efforts on the road and now back in Crete. Has done well here and Todd Warren has gelding in a nice groove.

Race 13 #8 Niteinthebox ML 9/2 #9 All American Solo ML 3/1 #10 KB’s Robby ML 7/2

This is one tough race, several recent winners and great drivers making picking one difficult. I’m going with #9 All American Solo. He has won 3 in a row, consistent speed and solid final times. Miller and Morales know how to win with this gelding and wouldn’t expect anything different tonight.

Late News: Finally conquered Saratoga! Handicapped Havre de Grace to win the Woodward, the analysis is at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ Good luck and will see you tomorrow night with the selections for the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral.

Guaranteed Pick 4 Balmoral Selection 8/31 Winner's Galore

Before we take a look at tonight’s Pick 4 selections, I’d like to look back on Sunday results. It is obvious, I didn’t hit it or my Monday blog would have been full of whoops and hollers. It was one of those tough nights were there was so many good horses and the ones left off made me pay for it. First race we hit it with Majestic Royale winning. Race 8 saw Nite to Remember win and I mentioned he might be a factor, and he was, blowing up the card. Next was Perfect Rendition winning and this was a total miss on my part. Looking back over the form this horse had every reason to be in the mix. Lastly, we went single with Little Gus and mentioned a concern with Rejoiceandbeglad, and sure enough he won and drove the stake through my handicapping heart. The Pick 4 paid a nice $1424.20.

In talking with some friends, they feel I’m making it more difficult on myself using a $24 ticket. If I expanded a bit more and used $90, the hit ratio would be much higher, for I could add additional horses. They contend it’s not my handicapping but a too tight of a ticket that reduces the “hit ratio” and they use Sunday as an example. Adding those three horses would have made the ticket $96 and the return would be over $1400. Their rationale is correct, but I explained to them I was trying to show good handicapping skills and some old fashion luck you could still hit the Pick 4. I may change later, but for now it’s a $24 ticket and 10 horses.

So tonight is Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral Park in Crete, IL and here are the selections:

Race 7: #1 Itzalassi ML 6/1 #4 Air Sissy ML 9/2 #7 Sport N Lady ML 3/1

I like all three these and would’ve had a difficult time choosing just one. If I had to choose one I would go with #4 Air Sissy, dropping down in class with improving speed figures, Casey Leonard staying with her and the trainer has a nice ROI in class drops. She just feels right in this spot.

Race 8: #3 Accountable Lady ML 8/1 #4 Night’s All Night ML 3/1 #7 No Doubt ML 6/1 #8 Sugar Bunny ML 9/2

I broke ranks and took four horses for this race; it’s that contentious and wide open. I like #8 No Doubt here for she has shown nice speed fig’s, Warren and Yoder have worked well together and she won two back. Last outing she was parked out so will toss it out and say she comes back and wins it. The other one is #8 Sugar Bunny playing the recent claim angle, Perry Smith has a nice ROI with recent claims and changes drivers to Eric Carlson who is having a good year.

Race 9: #7 Ave Marie ML 3/1 #9 Mad Cow Lisa ML 6/1

Could make a strong argument to single the #7 here but #9 Mad Cow Lisa has won 5 in a row and is moving up in class. I have a strong bias to horses that have done well consistently and are moving through the conditions. Smolin is in the buggy and Makin is doing well. Overall, Ave Marie is the key horse here with strong consistent speed figures (80-79-79-79) and has either won or been ITM in her last 7 efforts. John Roberts and Erin Elliott are a strong team.

Race 10: #7 Maranatha Hanover ML 4/1

This filly has been gradually improving with each race, she is trained and driven by John Roberts and her speed and class equals any of the others in this race. She isn’t a lock by any circumstances, the #8 Maladar is tough and has been consistent as well. But in the end the #7 is faster and I believe this will be her night to win.