Today at Saratoga we have the Quick Call Stakes with a Purse of $75,000 for 3 y/o’s going 5.5f on Turf. This field is loaded with great up and coming 3 y/o turf sprinters. Of the 11 entrants, seven are speed burners; all have great Beyers and solid pedigrees. When you look at the connections for this race, it reads like a who’s who of thoroughbred racing. There are a lot of angles you can play here, you could eliminate a few based on pole position. Most statistics show the one hole to be a deathtrap at Saratoga, so maybe question mark Nutmegcuveeroyale and Fastest Magician. That feels strange to discount horses from Linda Rice and Barclay Tagg!
You could look at the class factor and scratch off: Higher Court, Run Arnie Run, Schmooz Talker and Fudgesicle, based on them not winning anything more than allowance or maiden races. That leaves us with five contenders. Now the challenge is which one can get to the front and hold up on the Saratoga turf? What if it rains? The grass goes to good or off the turf? This is one of those races you might think to pass on, watch for the ones that are improving and place them in your stable. But then, what fun is that? So here goes my selection …
Royal Currier is where I am headed. He has 12 races under his belt, winning six of them. Last out at Monmouth was his first turf sprint and won 1 ¼ lengths. The Beyer for that first turf race was pedestrian in relation to this group, but going to stick with some intangibles this time. They are as follows:
• Patricia Farro is an excellent turf sprint trainer (21 for 52 with a ROI over $4.00). She scratched him out of a $150K stakes race back on July 3rd and now he is in Saratoga. Not sure if she brought a string or not, but she has no other entries today. I didn’t have time to check my Saratoga sources to find out.
• Shipping in from Monmouth, why? Tomorrow at Monmouth there is a $65k Stakes race, but she brings him up to Saratoga for $75K race. She could have stayed home, and it is Haskell weekend at Monmouth. Was this a targeted race for him?
• In 11 of his 12 races, one of the top three has gone on to win again. I do like the key race factor.
• Bravo comes with him and it’s his only mount for the day. At Monmouth he is one of the best on turf. He is on the Monmouth card tomorrow, so one and done at Saratoga.
• Royal Currier is versatile; he can go to the front or just sit off the pace. He also draws a nice post position coming out of the sixth slot. With a morning line of 5/1, he should get a nice price maybe slip to an overlay.
Today, I go with instincts in a very tough race. Like his experience, knows how to win, raced against winners, and excellent connections. Lastly, have to ask myself, what is Farro up to? She’s not here for a vacation that I do know.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
It was an It's Tricky weekend
The weekend of racing or no racing has passed, and glad to see the sweltering heat leave us behind. For me the race of the weekend was, It’s Tricky winning the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks. She has shown us in two consecutive races that she is one tough horse. In the Acorn, she beat the favorite Turbulent Descent and then Saturday knocked off another highly regarded filly, Plum Pretty. What makes these races exceptional for It’s Tricky, is that her competition had no excuses. They both tackled her down the stretch and she beat them back each time. The Alabama is next, and she has to be taken seriously this time. The Alabama could end up being the race of the year if all the fillies come. Right now the lineup is It’s Tricky, Zazu, St. John’s River, Inglorious, Royal Delta, Plum Pretty and Kinda of Spicy. I would like to see some of the sharp west coast fillies head to Saratoga, but thinking most will stay home. If you missed the CCA Oaks or the Acorn I have them below, and yes I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan.
A quick recap of the Survival At The Shore tournament at Monmouth Park. The track postponed Friday’s card till Monday (yesterday), cancelled Saturday’s card entirely. So there were only two days for the tournament. Sunday finished with one winner, Pinch Pie and on Monday, a second with Pasta Lover and Omega Mine came in third. Then on Sunday I participated in the NHC Summer Challenge, 1300+ participants and a 10 race card. The tracks composed of Woodbine, Saratoga, Monmouth and finished at Del Mar. Good races chosen by the organizers and felt my handicapping was much better than the last BC Qualifier. What you learn if you handicap long enough is how humbling this sport can be. First seven races I was shut out, and sitting like 1200 and something. The only saving grace was that they ranked us zeros alphabetically and saved me further humiliation.
Then Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf, back to one of my home tracks. 6th race Maiden Claiming, my selection Basic Logic goes off at 10-1, the longest play of my entire card. Like my dad said, the “early foot” wins more than their fair and Basic Logic goes wire to wire and brings home a nice $32.40 (Win-Place). Finally, a breakthrough! I knew the leaders would try to ride it through for the three qualify spots, so I expected to move into the top 500. No, my new best friend, Basic Logic shot me to 319 spot, and then looking at the leaders it would take more than one “balloon” to get me there. Two races to go and the next up was the Californian Dreamin Handicap with Tamarack Smarty the favorite. I had Norvsky picked and thought maybe a decent price would get me up the food chain. He did win but got knocked down on the tote a bit too much and ended up with an $8.40 ticket. I moved up to 295th position.
One race to go and sitting at $40.40 with the top three at $70. The last race was the San Clemente, Sarah’s Secret was undefeated and looked ready to take make it five in a row. I liked Mizdirection , but she would be bet down as the second favorite. The only other horse I considered was Up In Time, and it was an instinct play but my over analysis said next time not here. They cap the tournament at 20-1 so odds of me scoring with a bomber were not there. I stayed with Mizdirection and she finished second to …. You know who? Up In Time! Up In Time paid $35.00, which would have given me a $75.40 day, but not enough to qualify (but a top 10). With Mizdirection’s second money of $4.20, I finished the day at $44.60 and 275 out of over 1300. What blew me away is that the top three on the leader board got knocked out on that last race. So congrats to the folks that took Up In Time and copped those precious seats in Las Vegas.
A quick recap of the Survival At The Shore tournament at Monmouth Park. The track postponed Friday’s card till Monday (yesterday), cancelled Saturday’s card entirely. So there were only two days for the tournament. Sunday finished with one winner, Pinch Pie and on Monday, a second with Pasta Lover and Omega Mine came in third. Then on Sunday I participated in the NHC Summer Challenge, 1300+ participants and a 10 race card. The tracks composed of Woodbine, Saratoga, Monmouth and finished at Del Mar. Good races chosen by the organizers and felt my handicapping was much better than the last BC Qualifier. What you learn if you handicap long enough is how humbling this sport can be. First seven races I was shut out, and sitting like 1200 and something. The only saving grace was that they ranked us zeros alphabetically and saved me further humiliation.
Then Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf, back to one of my home tracks. 6th race Maiden Claiming, my selection Basic Logic goes off at 10-1, the longest play of my entire card. Like my dad said, the “early foot” wins more than their fair and Basic Logic goes wire to wire and brings home a nice $32.40 (Win-Place). Finally, a breakthrough! I knew the leaders would try to ride it through for the three qualify spots, so I expected to move into the top 500. No, my new best friend, Basic Logic shot me to 319 spot, and then looking at the leaders it would take more than one “balloon” to get me there. Two races to go and the next up was the Californian Dreamin Handicap with Tamarack Smarty the favorite. I had Norvsky picked and thought maybe a decent price would get me up the food chain. He did win but got knocked down on the tote a bit too much and ended up with an $8.40 ticket. I moved up to 295th position.
One race to go and sitting at $40.40 with the top three at $70. The last race was the San Clemente, Sarah’s Secret was undefeated and looked ready to take make it five in a row. I liked Mizdirection , but she would be bet down as the second favorite. The only other horse I considered was Up In Time, and it was an instinct play but my over analysis said next time not here. They cap the tournament at 20-1 so odds of me scoring with a bomber were not there. I stayed with Mizdirection and she finished second to …. You know who? Up In Time! Up In Time paid $35.00, which would have given me a $75.40 day, but not enough to qualify (but a top 10). With Mizdirection’s second money of $4.20, I finished the day at $44.60 and 275 out of over 1300. What blew me away is that the top three on the leader board got knocked out on that last race. So congrats to the folks that took Up In Time and copped those precious seats in Las Vegas.
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