We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1. He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return. That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race. It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's. The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Play of the Day: 12th at Sunland Park 4/17/2012
Yesterday in the 6th at Beulah Park, our horse Raise the Bounty went off at 4/1 which is what I penned in as his fair value. However, he ran his usual race of rating off the pace and he was too late in getting in gear. I felt Lumpkins had to rate him closer but then U Ben Thunderstruk did take off. This is one of those races we handicapped it right, got the value, but the result left us $12 out.
Today’s race is the 12th at Sunland Park, it’s the AAmigoCIH40K for 3YO+, the claiming price is $12,500. The field of eight will be going a mile and a quarter over the dirt for a purse of $40,000. The one that appeals to me the most would be the fourth favorite, #5 Catch the Bean ML 5/1.
What makes this 8YO gelding so attractive is that he is razor sharp winning two in a row and actually picked up his speed in his last outing. He has fared well at Sunland winning eight of twenty-four, with a total of fifteen times in the money. He competed in this event last year finishing fifth with a mild rally. Yes, Tricky Causeway finished third in that race, but it looks to me like Catch the Bean was fading in his form cycle. Jim Boss took him over seven races back and he has won three and has four places all in routes. Boss is a steady trainer winning 15% of his opportunities and keeps Arboleda on board, who has won two of three times riding him. Like yesterday, the big challenge for him will be the pace, for it looks like a pace less race. He has shown the ability to get forward but he prefers to stalk, the interesting point is that Arboleda doesn’t let him fall to far back. He has won two in a row in the past, but each time he went for the third there was either a layoff or a change of trainer, so this will be the first time trying without an interruption. They are bringing him back just over two weeks rest, telling me he is ready to go (or starting to roll over on his cycle but he is worth the risk). His morning line is 5/1 and that looks fair for this race. If some reason he drops below it then we pass on him and just watch.
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