Yesterday, I dropped in a price play in the 1st Race at Gulstream, Wildcat Sierra. The morning line was 12/1 and she went off at 10/1, since she went off less than the morning line, there would have been no play. The key to the price play is that the odds have to be at or higher than the morning line, or the horse becomes an over bet.
Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise, it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs. It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult. The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach. Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers. The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group? I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Price Play For Sunday, 1st Race @Gulfstream
Normally I don't blog on Sundays, for I'm either in a tournament or playing for my own account. However, I spotted an interesting price play at Gulfstream Park today in the 1st race. It's a maiden claiming ($12,500) going 51/2 furlongs. The price play is ...
#5 Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1
She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance. I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.
I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off. Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.
Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters. Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.
Good luck!!
#5 Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1
She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance. I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.
I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off. Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.
Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters. Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.
Good luck!!
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