We finished the week with a nice win at Santa Anita. Darling Dodie a first time starter went off at 7/1 and paid $16.00 for her efforts. I didn't get to see the race, but did read the recap and it looked like Corey Nakatani set her up perfectly. Interesting note on that maiden race, all three finishers were first time starters! We handicapped four races for the week, playing $2 to win on each race, we invested $8.00 and returned $16.00, not a bad start for the week.
Today we have three big races at Aqueduct, and I like the favorites in each of them: Hansen, It's Tricky and Caleb Posse. I'll be handicapping the Battaglia Memorial over at Turfway Park for 3YO. that analysis will be at horseplayersassociation.org under Weekend Handicapping.
One last note, I want to leave you all with a quote from Mark Cramer,
In Search of the Steady Horse
In search of this ideal, we must reckon with certain realities of horse racing:
1. No horse wins all races.
2. Dependable horses that win most races yield an unplayably low average mutual.
3. The closet thing to a truly "consistent" horse is one that loses all its races.
Have a great weekend, and see you on Monday.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Friday, March 2, 2012
5th Race @Santa Anita for March 2nd
Deputy Darling was a disappointment yesterday at Gulfstream finishing 7th. I didn't get to see the race but did read the recap, well not much in her case. It read like she went on a tour of the course, strange for a Micheal Maker horse. The only consolation was Mr. Illman at the DRF liked her chances too, so it's good to know I didn't misread it entirely. Today the DRF is tossing us another maiden special weight, but this time it's at Santa Anita. It will be the 5th race on turf, a sprint of six and a half furlongs for 3YO fillies. As a reminder, the Santa Anita turf course starts on a downhill run, it can be tricky.
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
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