Price Play @Turf Paradise for 3/5/12

Today we take a look at the 8th race at Turf Paradise, it's an Allowance race for $13,000NW2L going seven and a half furlongs over turf. There is a field of 10 entered and it's a real mixed bag as you would expect. The one I like in this race is the #6 Bell Blitz with a morning line of 10/1.

The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.

We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!

Record

Starts 4

Wins 1

Place 0

Show 1

Santa Anita Handicap Spot Play for today

I'm a big fan of Mark Cramer (also James Quinn), and I just realized that shows my age doesn't it? Anyway, Cramer has an angle for surprise winners. You find a horse with three straight loses that is switching tracks along with a jockey change. Additionally, the horse should be beaten by more than 2 lengths in those three races, dropping (or rising) in class and odds greater than 4/1. Cramer showed a 13% win ratio with a huge ROI.

The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.

Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.