Our selection at Will Rogers Downs went off at too low of a price to even consider playing him. Looking at the results, you could have put $2 to win/place on all of them and had a huge score. Today, we go back to Aqueduct, to play the 7th race, it is an Optional Claiming event for $75K/N1X going a mile and 70 yards over the inner track, for 3YO's. It's a good field, and another wide open affair. I like two entries and price will dictate the direction I go.
#4 Street Life ML 6/1
He shipped in from GP and won at first asking here at Aqueduct going this distance. Big improvement to his Beyer's (70), and looks ready to move through his conditions. In his last outing, it wasn't an easy trip, Alvarado had to guide him through traffic and he galloped away. The other big plus is Chad Brown, he is having a solid meet so far, and his record with returning winners is superior, 29%! If we can get a square price (meaning better than 4/1), he is the play.
If the #4 is not playable, the I would go with #6 A Boy Named Em ML 8/1. He is shipping in after a couple tepid efforts at GP. It looks like this angle of shipping in from GP is working at Aqueduct. You'll notice there are a couple other entrants that have shipped an won here. There are several angles to play with him: first blinkers on (equipment change), jockey switch to Castro, consistent speed and should see an improvement on the inner track. His last outing outing was a troubled trip by being squeezed at the start. Lastly, Kenneally is having a good meet too, especially with horses coming off a layoff (25% win rate).
I like both of these, and will let the tote board dictate the play.
Record:
Races: 6
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Pick of the Day: 9th Race Will Rogers Downs, MdnSpcWgt
Well a long shot won yesterday in the 8th race at Turf Paradise, unfortunately it wasn't our selection. Bell Biltz broke out nicely and then faded away, so much for the change of venue. Today, we head to Oklahoma to try our hand with a group of maidens going 5 1/2 furlongs for $21,600. I've never handicapped Will Rogers Downs, and this group of 12 has little experience, except two. I will avoid the first time starters here and go with the #5 Konawa Slew ML 5/1.
He has had two nice races, the last one brought out a 62 Beyer, which is above par for this group. I also like how he improved his position at each call from his first outing, he stayed close and then fell off at the end. Both the winner and place horses have gone on to win again, so you have the key horse angle here. The trainer, Offolter, has a solid record, especially with maidens and layoffs. No jockey or weight changes to concern ourselves with. The big issue will the crowd jump on board? If the odds drop below 3/1 then we layoff the play. It's a crowded field so the money could get spread around.
Record:
Selections: 5
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
He has had two nice races, the last one brought out a 62 Beyer, which is above par for this group. I also like how he improved his position at each call from his first outing, he stayed close and then fell off at the end. Both the winner and place horses have gone on to win again, so you have the key horse angle here. The trainer, Offolter, has a solid record, especially with maidens and layoffs. No jockey or weight changes to concern ourselves with. The big issue will the crowd jump on board? If the odds drop below 3/1 then we layoff the play. It's a crowded field so the money could get spread around.
Record:
Selections: 5
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
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