Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/12/2012

Our choice yesterday, Silent Thunder went off at 6 1/2/1, not quite where we would have liked but close enough if the show pool was good enough for a decent payout. Regardless, he finished 7th after a good start and was in the hunt till the stretch and then faded badly.  So we are off the board this week so far and today's race is no easy one either.  Today we go to Keeneland for the 8th Race, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares 4YO+ going 7 furlongs on the synthetic.  The purse is $300,000 and we have a field of 10 sprinting for it.

I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it.  We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices.  The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.

My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.

John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January.  She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total.  Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot.  There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts.  Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.

The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1.  We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it.  She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily.  The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today.  Those elements make her an interesting play.  The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's).  So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire?  On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price.  Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.

The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1.  This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end.  Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board.  No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.

Play of the Day:7th Race @ Aqueduct 4/11/2012

Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20.  The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely.  You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20.  Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.

Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile.  The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).

There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle.  Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.

He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga.  His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off.  His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form.  He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today.  The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now.  5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.