Yesterday at Aqueduct we got served up the triple whammy. First the track was muddy, Matt Carothers at TVG selected Notell, and the kiss of death on Elusive Rumour is when Simon Bray selected her. I like Simon and his thoughts, especially on breeding, but when he handicaps, I usually go the other way. Likewise, I do like Matt Carothers selections, and usually feel comfortable when he and I agree. I will say I was pleased with Elusive Rumour's effort. She went forward, settled and hung tough for a show finish. I would watch for her next time out, she is ready to break her maiden.
So today we go south to Gulfstream for the 7th race on turf going a mile and sixteenth. It's a $40,000 claiming event for 4YO+ fillies and mares. A field of 11 have entered and it's a competitive group. The #10 Brampton looks like the favorite and did have a good run last out, but for the price play I will go with ...
#9 Deputy Darling ML 5/1
She had won three in a row before she lost in an allowance race here at GP. She shows consistent speed over the grass, and even bumps into the low to mid 80's. I like the connections of Maker and Leparoux, and she has won at this level here and at Churchill. She has had four workouts since her last effort, nothing special but it shows she is fit and ready. Lastly, she has hit the board at GP three of five times, including two wins. My only issue is she is a closer, but I do like how Leparoux has ridden her. Anything close to 5/1 she is a play.
Record:
Starts: 2
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
7th @Aqueduct 2/29/12
So much for looking a bit too far back on Carnivore. I was surprised that Hernandez took him to the front going wide to get there, especially from the outside. I admit I would have played him at 4/1 but not a great effort. So today as punishment we will play the 7th at Aqueduct. It's a maiden special weight($55K) for 3YO+ fillies racing a mile.
Out of the field of 10 we have two career maidens and two first time starters, which I'll pass on. The one I like will be the favorite so I tossed in a horse that can get a price and has the ability to surprise.
Pick:
#1a Bent On Glory ML 2/1
This Linda Rice 3YO is making her third start after a show finish here at Aqueduct on the inner track going a mile and 70. That race was a big improvement over her first start, the place horse went on to win with a 60 Beyer (key race angle), and she gets a four pound weight break. Linda Rice isn't known as a maiden killer but this filly looks like she is trending in the right direction. The cut back in distance suits her, unfortunately for us the odds don't.
Price Play:
#4 Elusive Rumour ML 6/1
Like the #1a this filly is making her third start, sadly the second effort was a dud. I'm going to toss it as a troubled trip and go with the solid breeding and Albertrani. He has a decent record with maidens, he is putting Alvarado back on and we have the good old sprint to route play. Her workouts have been a bit better than in January, she is off the inside (tough on the inner track) and is stretching out. Madiens are tough no matter what, and I see no reason she doesn't bounce back and win it.
Out of the field of 10 we have two career maidens and two first time starters, which I'll pass on. The one I like will be the favorite so I tossed in a horse that can get a price and has the ability to surprise.
Pick:
#1a Bent On Glory ML 2/1
This Linda Rice 3YO is making her third start after a show finish here at Aqueduct on the inner track going a mile and 70. That race was a big improvement over her first start, the place horse went on to win with a 60 Beyer (key race angle), and she gets a four pound weight break. Linda Rice isn't known as a maiden killer but this filly looks like she is trending in the right direction. The cut back in distance suits her, unfortunately for us the odds don't.
Price Play:
#4 Elusive Rumour ML 6/1
Like the #1a this filly is making her third start, sadly the second effort was a dud. I'm going to toss it as a troubled trip and go with the solid breeding and Albertrani. He has a decent record with maidens, he is putting Alvarado back on and we have the good old sprint to route play. Her workouts have been a bit better than in January, she is off the inside (tough on the inner track) and is stretching out. Madiens are tough no matter what, and I see no reason she doesn't bounce back and win it.
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