Play(s) of the Day: 9th race @Fair Grounds

What a week! Wednesday we get the right price but the wrong result, then yesterday at Aqueduct we get the right result but the wrong price.  The #3 scratches out and he would have been the favorite, and that opens the door for our selection to go from 7/2 morning line to 4/5 at post time. Needless to say, there would have been no bet, but it's still nice to pick a winner, even if it's chalk.

Today, we will run down to the Fair Grounds and play the 9th Race. It's a $5000 claimer for 4YO and upwards going a mile and sixteenth. The conditions of this race allow for some real salty entries.  I admit, I don't handicap low level claimers because the form cycle is so hard to spot.  However, if you can figure it out these type of races bring the best value.  In this one, there are two of interest, and like always the tote will dictate the action.

From a pure angle play, the #11 Random Move ML 9/2 fits the bill.  This 5YO gelding is shipping in from Delta Downs, were he had three tough races, the last won he held on to third. He get's the hot jockey in Rosie Napravnik and his trainer, Jonas Gibson has done well at the Fair Grounds with his limited barn.  I know Smashin Thru has handled twice in those three races, and his speed sits in the mid 50 low 60's, but looking at the past, he seems to find something extra here at the FG.  If he goes to 8/1 or higher he would be an intriguing play.

Next one is the #8 Pharme Legend ML 10/1.  Out of the gate the price is there and suspect it will go higher by post time.  What makes him attractive is we have a lightly race 4YO, who has done well for himself. Won 3 of  13 and in the money 7 times.  That record is from Texas at Retama, and his first two spins at the Fair Grounds have been lackluster. So why today?  I like the jockey switch to Shane Sellers, his last work out here at FG was a bullet, he raced better at the first two calls last out. I know it doesn't seem much to go on, and he might not like this surface, but Danny Pish is a steady trainer, and he might have this one ready to go.  The key is, does the #11 get the 8/1 or better? if so go there, if not take a small shot on Pharme Legend.

Tomorrow, I'll be blogging over a www.horseplayersassociation.org, and will do a weekly recap in the afternoon.

Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct 3/15/12

We got the price on Precision Farming at Gulfstream yesterday, 15/1, sadly we didn't get the result.  I'm not sure how I would have played it, she had shown issues in the past, and felt lukewarm all the way around, maybe one unit to win and let it go at that.  Today is Thursday, so it must be Aqueduct! It feels like every Thursday the DRF tosses us a race from there and today is no exception.

It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc.  I will refrain writing out the conditions today.  It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough.  There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.

If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2.  This is a straight angle play.  He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot).  There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow.  There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.