Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012

We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification.  There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically.  With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race.  In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him.  What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable.  Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5.  With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense.   Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race.  We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day.  So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.

Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24^th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf.  Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse.   In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat.  He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth.   Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today.  She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group.   The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money.  So the final question is to play or lay?

So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa?  There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1.  In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck.  She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile.  I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses.  If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.

Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1.  She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style.  Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs.  The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price.  She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass.  The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse.  He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.

Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher. 

Play of the Day: 4th at Penn National 4/18/2012

We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1.  He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return.  That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race.  It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's.  The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.

First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way.  He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly.  One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class.  You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races.  Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head.  He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.

Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2.  He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff.  I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race.  Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%).  Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field.  Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.

#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker.  So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.

#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays.  He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.

#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1.  The mystery colt.  Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives.  Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out.  It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.

The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming.  The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.

Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.