On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish. Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show. His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80). Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three. They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Friday, April 27, 2012
Play of the Day: 5th Race at Calder 4/27/2012
In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose. Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.
There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1. He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start. His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it. He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed. Adding Jara only helps the cause.
The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park. He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more. Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today. Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board. In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F. The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.
The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1. This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race. First off we get a stretch out and surface change. Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers. In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today. Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will. He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.
Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!
There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1. He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start. His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it. He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed. Adding Jara only helps the cause.
The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park. He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more. Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today. Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board. In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F. The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.
The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1. This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race. First off we get a stretch out and surface change. Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers. In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today. Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will. He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.
Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!
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