Last night in the 8th race at Charles Town we hit the board with Omara Devil coming in second at 15/1. As expected, Silver Heart won the race, but was surprising is Bahia Beach going off as the favorite. With Omara Devil with a morning line of 5/1 and getting a nice overlay at 15/1, I would have stacked my wagers. One unit win, two to place and three to show. That would mean at $2 per unit a $12 investment and returned $25.80.
Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500. So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.
It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders. So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing. She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event. The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today. Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.
We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th Race Charles Town for 03/13/12
The race yesterday at Turf Paradise turned out to be a bust. Not only didn't we get the odds on Hay Gear but he also ran up the track on us. He had a morning line of 5/1 and expected him to go off at 8/1 or higher. In the end he was bet down to 3/1 taking all the value out of the play of the day. Picking winners is hard enough, but if we are going to go down, at least let's get our price.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
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