Last night saw us hit three of four and it ended up being a miserly pay off anyway. Tonight is the $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 and going to offer two tickets. Using the selections offered below will cost you $36 and if you hit the “all” button on Race 9 the entire ticket would run you $120. I’m going with the $120 ticket tonight, but will offer three selections for Race 9 if you wish to hold to a tight budget.
Race 7 #2 LoverBoyLou ML 6/1 #5 NJ’s Fast Fletch 7/2 #9 Nash Gram ML 5/1
This is a tough race and if money was no object would take them all here too. We are not even mentioning American Solo or KB’s Robby who both could take this race. I like Nash Gram in this one. A nice paring of 79’s, likes to get out front but has never been on the outside, so that should make it interesting. He picks up Marcus Miller for the first time and Willis has done well with Marcus, .349. Otherwise, NJ’s Fast Fletch would be the one to tag.
Race 8 #1 Dial A Dragon ML 3/1
The Wilfong’s have this 3YO gelding clipping right along. Granted he hasn’t found the winners circle often but seems like he is growing into a fine pacer. He is back to the inside and should find himself in familiar position to pounce on the leaders.
Race 9 #2 Lady Lakers ML 4/1 #8 Cam Town Carrie ML 6/1 #9 Runaway Desirae ML 3/1
If you don’t hit the “all” button, then the one here is the #9. This lightly raced 3YO filly has won her two races and is now moving up in class. I lean to this types and would do the same here tonight. Kristopher Reynolds has a nice record with class movers, .409 and with Roberts they score 42% of the time. There’s plenty of good pacers here including the tough, Lady Lakers.
Race 10 #3 Challenge My Heart ML 4/1 #5 Forcryingoutloud ML 3/1 #8 Accountable Lady ML 5/1 #10 Pickaplacetopark ML 10/1
Anyone of these ladies could win this pace. For my money I’m going to stay with Pickaplacetopark. We had her last time and was set up perfectly to win then had a costly break. She does get the outside post which could be her undoing, but if Todd Warren can straighten her out she will hit a nice payoff. The other I like here is Forcryingoutloud. If you want to add one more horse take a look at the #1 Itzalassi. She is hasn’t been herself of late and is dropping in class and has shown she can run with this group
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections
Tonight at Balmoral we have four stake races for the $20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4.
Race 7 #4 Swinging Beauty ML 3/1 #6 Honky Tonk Woman 9/2 #7 Mystical MJ ML 8/1
The first race is a one mile pace for 3YO fillies. This race is wide open compared to the other three offerings, and while Fresh Idea will be the favorite, I don’t see her holding up against this field. I’m going out on a limb and picking #7 Mystical MJ. She has raced very well at Balmoral, nice consistent speed figures and Marcus Miller in the buggy. It might be a reach compared to others, but thinking with her experience at the Park and Miller might give her a big advantage.
Race 8 #1 Lucky Jim ML 5/2 #5 Hot Shot Blue Chip ML 7/2 # Sir Caviar ML 8/1
Here we have a one mile trot for 4YO and up and the field tightens up considerably. I’m going with Sir Caviar brings in 4 wins in a row and stepping up in class. His speed fig’s are moving in the right direction, 94-94-99-100 and see nothing but upside. Lucky Jim is a huge factor with Miller driving and the ability to go real fast. He has been a touch inconsistent and have to go with Sir Caviar.
Race 9 #4 Foiled Again ML 7/2
In this one mile pace for 4YO and upward Foiled Again sticks out. Has won 13 of 27 this season, speed is over 100 consistently and Gingras drives. There are other good pacers in this field but the #4 is just faster and classer.
Race 10 #1 Betterthancheddar ML 3/1 #4 Dutch Richman ML 8/1 #6 He’s So Hot ML 8/1
The last stake race is a one mile pace for 3YO colts and geldings. The #1 will be the favorite and is well deserved. Brennan is driving this speedy colt who will be looking to win his 4th in a row. However, I’m going with #6 He’s So Hot, the angle here is that He’s So Hot has won 3 of 4 here at Balmoral and Todd Warren is back in the driver’s seat. While not as fast as Betterthancheddar, I’m thinking the home track favorite will out fox the invaders and pull it off.
Race 7 #4 Swinging Beauty ML 3/1 #6 Honky Tonk Woman 9/2 #7 Mystical MJ ML 8/1
The first race is a one mile pace for 3YO fillies. This race is wide open compared to the other three offerings, and while Fresh Idea will be the favorite, I don’t see her holding up against this field. I’m going out on a limb and picking #7 Mystical MJ. She has raced very well at Balmoral, nice consistent speed figures and Marcus Miller in the buggy. It might be a reach compared to others, but thinking with her experience at the Park and Miller might give her a big advantage.
Race 8 #1 Lucky Jim ML 5/2 #5 Hot Shot Blue Chip ML 7/2 # Sir Caviar ML 8/1
Here we have a one mile trot for 4YO and up and the field tightens up considerably. I’m going with Sir Caviar brings in 4 wins in a row and stepping up in class. His speed fig’s are moving in the right direction, 94-94-99-100 and see nothing but upside. Lucky Jim is a huge factor with Miller driving and the ability to go real fast. He has been a touch inconsistent and have to go with Sir Caviar.
Race 9 #4 Foiled Again ML 7/2
In this one mile pace for 4YO and upward Foiled Again sticks out. Has won 13 of 27 this season, speed is over 100 consistently and Gingras drives. There are other good pacers in this field but the #4 is just faster and classer.
Race 10 #1 Betterthancheddar ML 3/1 #4 Dutch Richman ML 8/1 #6 He’s So Hot ML 8/1
The last stake race is a one mile pace for 3YO colts and geldings. The #1 will be the favorite and is well deserved. Brennan is driving this speedy colt who will be looking to win his 4th in a row. However, I’m going with #6 He’s So Hot, the angle here is that He’s So Hot has won 3 of 4 here at Balmoral and Todd Warren is back in the driver’s seat. While not as fast as Betterthancheddar, I’m thinking the home track favorite will out fox the invaders and pull it off.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Caleb's Posse enters the Horse of the Year debate
I normally stay out of these kind of discussions but listening and reading all the stuff on who should be the horse of the year based on all the what ifs and what might have been's, it is clear to me that Caleb's Posse has the clear cut edge on the honors.
His record has had its up and downs for sure, but he has won four graded events at four different distances (mile, two sprints and a mile and sixteenth), all his wins have had Beyer's over 100 and took down top horses in each event. Those victories have come at three different tracks, and has shown versatility and the ability to win the big ones.
While not a dominating horse, but one that has shown determination to come back and win, no matter the distance, grade level or track. That makes him Horse of the Year in my book.
His record has had its up and downs for sure, but he has won four graded events at four different distances (mile, two sprints and a mile and sixteenth), all his wins have had Beyer's over 100 and took down top horses in each event. Those victories have come at three different tracks, and has shown versatility and the ability to win the big ones.
While not a dominating horse, but one that has shown determination to come back and win, no matter the distance, grade level or track. That makes him Horse of the Year in my book.
Window Boy in the 8th at Parx Today - Analysis
In the 8th race at Parx is 2YO allowance race for non winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter, or Pennsylvania bred not winning two. It’s going a mile on dirt for a purse of $47,000, field of six.
For me there is only one contender in this race and it’s the #6 Window Boy at a ML of 7/2. Not a ton of value but should love going the extra distance, breeding say’s so, and looks primed to find the winner circle right back. Nice Beyer of 66 on his second effort, two key races also here. The place horse went out to break his maiden next outing and Mr. Bowling repeated a winning effort. John Servis has a good record with winners last out (21%) and he keeps Arroyo on board. The #1 will go to the lead, but I believe Window Bay to be faster and can easily overhaul him, and getting 4 pound weight break only helps.
For me there is only one contender in this race and it’s the #6 Window Boy at a ML of 7/2. Not a ton of value but should love going the extra distance, breeding say’s so, and looks primed to find the winner circle right back. Nice Beyer of 66 on his second effort, two key races also here. The place horse went out to break his maiden next outing and Mr. Bowling repeated a winning effort. John Servis has a good record with winners last out (21%) and he keeps Arroyo on board. The #1 will go to the lead, but I believe Window Bay to be faster and can easily overhaul him, and getting 4 pound weight break only helps.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 Balmoral Selections for Tonight
For those who don’t know, I do the Handicap Weekend at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ and with the Breeder’s Cup festival yesterday I didn’t get to the Saturday Pick 4 at Balmoral. So we are back on schedule today with the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4. The races are number 7 through 10 and we are going to stay with a $24 ticket. Here we go …
Race 7 #4 AJS April Doll ML 3/1
There are several females that I like, Toshie Special, Tinkers Dam and Cole Blue but in the end the number 4 looks too good. This 5YO mare is dropping in class with a nice pair of speed figures (78 – 79) and has back to back 1:53 finishing times. Marcus Miller is driving and Scott Galloway hits at .297 with drop downs. No lock but she looks super fit and ready to win it.
Race 8 #6 Hitithard ML 8/1 #7 Detailer ML 12/1 #8 Thrills Sugar Buzz ML 6/1
In this race, Thrills Sugar Buzz looks real solid. Two wins in last three, excellent times and good speed (83-77-83). Todd Warren has been right on in the buggy with this 7YO gelding and while the others can be tough, I see the #8 handling them. You could argue singling him here too.
Race 9 #1 Itzalassi ML 8/1 #4 Temperment ML 8/1 #6 Bobs Minute Maid ML 5/1
This is the ticket buster race. With no budget in place I’d hit the “all” button. In truth, the more I look at this field the less I like them. There are several here that have done by us in the past, but they look like they are out of form. You look at Itzalassi and you see those five wins in a row, then three with troubled trips, can this 3YO filly bounce back? I have always been a big Temperment fan, but she is a far cry from her form of August, so that leaves us the #6. Bob’s Minute Maid is another that has been less than stellar; the only thing that makes him strong is his final times. So in the end, I’m going with Itzalassi to come back and win.
Race 10 # 1 Forcryingoutloud ML 3/1 #2 Mandy’s Gold ML 5/1 #6 Pickaplacetopark ML 5/1
This is a highly competitive group and in the end I’ll go with the #6 Pickaplacetopark. This will be her first start at Balmoral and with Todd Warren driving. She had some good efforts at Maywood and then struggled at Indy. Her back to back 68’s while not the top for this group shows me form is coming into play. The 4YO mare has shown good 70’s not too far back and good shoot through this crowd and take it. I also like Mandy’s Gold in here too.
Race 7 #4 AJS April Doll ML 3/1
There are several females that I like, Toshie Special, Tinkers Dam and Cole Blue but in the end the number 4 looks too good. This 5YO mare is dropping in class with a nice pair of speed figures (78 – 79) and has back to back 1:53 finishing times. Marcus Miller is driving and Scott Galloway hits at .297 with drop downs. No lock but she looks super fit and ready to win it.
Race 8 #6 Hitithard ML 8/1 #7 Detailer ML 12/1 #8 Thrills Sugar Buzz ML 6/1
In this race, Thrills Sugar Buzz looks real solid. Two wins in last three, excellent times and good speed (83-77-83). Todd Warren has been right on in the buggy with this 7YO gelding and while the others can be tough, I see the #8 handling them. You could argue singling him here too.
Race 9 #1 Itzalassi ML 8/1 #4 Temperment ML 8/1 #6 Bobs Minute Maid ML 5/1
This is the ticket buster race. With no budget in place I’d hit the “all” button. In truth, the more I look at this field the less I like them. There are several here that have done by us in the past, but they look like they are out of form. You look at Itzalassi and you see those five wins in a row, then three with troubled trips, can this 3YO filly bounce back? I have always been a big Temperment fan, but she is a far cry from her form of August, so that leaves us the #6. Bob’s Minute Maid is another that has been less than stellar; the only thing that makes him strong is his final times. So in the end, I’m going with Itzalassi to come back and win.
Race 10 # 1 Forcryingoutloud ML 3/1 #2 Mandy’s Gold ML 5/1 #6 Pickaplacetopark ML 5/1
This is a highly competitive group and in the end I’ll go with the #6 Pickaplacetopark. This will be her first start at Balmoral and with Todd Warren driving. She had some good efforts at Maywood and then struggled at Indy. Her back to back 68’s while not the top for this group shows me form is coming into play. The 4YO mare has shown good 70’s not too far back and good shoot through this crowd and take it. I also like Mandy’s Gold in here too.
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