Thursday, April 26, 2012

Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012

We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne.  The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play.  Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it.  I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.

So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off.  There are no listed scratches at this time.

The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace.  We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass.  When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1.  She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events.  Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3).  She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now.  I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price.  Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.