Play of the Day: 5th Race at Calder 4/27/2012

In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We  also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose.  Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.

There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1.  He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start.  His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it.  He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed.  Adding Jara only helps the cause.

The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park.  He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more.  Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today.  Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board.  In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F.  The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.

The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1.  This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race.  First off we get a stretch out and surface change.  Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers.  In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today.  Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will.  He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.

Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!

Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012

We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne.  The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play.  Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it.  I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.

So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off.  There are no listed scratches at this time.

The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace.  We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass.  When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1.  She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events.  Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3).  She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now.  I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price.  Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.

Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012

There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday.  Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change.  Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!

Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course.  There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning.  Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.

The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5.  She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December.  Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today.  So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.

Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1.  The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP.  The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride.  She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart?  The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim.  He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play.  Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.

On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable.  She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race.  You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow.  Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off.  She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.

From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1.  She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race.  I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.




   

Play of the Day: Transylvania G3 @Keeneland 4/6/2012

There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet.  Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland.  It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass.  A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one.  There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.

#1 State of Play ML 3/1

First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2.  He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park.  He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting.  The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.

#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1

This would be my price play.  I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance.  There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max?  As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help.  Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.

#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2

You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out.  The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations.  I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value.  This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.

So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.

Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon.  I would like to wish all  a great Holiday weekend.

Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012

We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On.  First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say.  Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race.  It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass.  It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.

The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1.  She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today.  Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance).  Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with  ...

#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1

She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings.  Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her.  Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill.  The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look.  I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event.  She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.

It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.  

Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012

We are having a tough week getting any action going.  Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.

Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita.  It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill  turf for 4YO+.  Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races.  I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.

#8  Red Defense ML 3/1

There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so.  He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record.  His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board.  I like the cut back in distance  and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.

The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1

What is this our third layoff in a row?   After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.  

Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012

Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.

It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse.  This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it.  I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.

The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass.  Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass.  Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.

Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1.  We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher.  He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help.  Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one.  It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one?   His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.

Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1.  Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher.  The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share.  So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch.  Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall.  I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the  mix.

So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.

Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 03/22/2012

Yesterday turned out to be a no play day with our scratch at Aqueduct. In fact, three of the seven decided to be no go's in that stakes race. I hope the horses are fine, and Strike the Moon got hammered at the windows and the result showed it, placing third.

Today, we head down I-95 to Gulfstream Park and look at the 6th Race. It's a Maiden Special Weights for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on grass for a purse of $60,000.  This is a good field and a lot of contention, there are no real glaring angles here, so we have to dig deeper. I like two of them, and the action at the tote will decide the direction. First one I like is ...

#5 Grouse ML 5/1

Hard not to like a Chad Brown entry at 5/1.  This will be his third start and is stretching out a bit more. His last effort showed nice improvement, not only in his Beyer, but in his call slots, notice he ran closer up than his first effort.  This will be his first spin on the weeds, but breeding says it should be fine. Also, there are some key races in his past, he has run against some good company.  Leparoux is back on him, a good sign, Labaroux is hitting 16% on grass and 33% with Brown. One more point, is Chad Brown numbers with Turf, MSW and horses coming off short layoffs are excellent. The only issues is do we get 5/1? Probably not, but if he does or drifts higher then I play $2 to win $4 to place.

For value, I'll take the first time starter #7 Act of War(IRE) ML 10/1

The breeding suggest he is a good one, Lasix added and Garoffalo puts Velazquez on for the debut. I know Garoffalo doesn't have the greatest 1st time starter record, but his other stats are good. He is not a lock by any means, but it's an interesting situation for this first time starter. If we get our odds on Grouse, then I would put $6 to show on the #7 at 10/1 or higher, and I stress the higher. Lower no play.

There are other interesting entries, the #5 is a possible too. With this much contention and no overt angle play, things do get muddy. In the end, Grouse if we get the action, otherwise the #7 for a show play.

Going international in the Sunset Hcp (G3)

There is no doubt that the Sunset Handicap (G3) is a wide open affair, with Acclamation out. You can take four of the entrants and make a strong case for each of them. The safe choice, and on that is deserved, would be to take Celtic New Year. You could debate Falcon Rock, Restless Soul and Imponente Purse having a shot at the board too. All four have placed well in graded company, even though none have won a graded event.

Taking that into consideration, and looking for a price play, am going to go International and take first time starter, Ashtar. The prevailing wisdom is to let South American turf stars get one under their belt before jumping on the bandwagon. Normally I would follow that advice. So why now? Good question.

When I look at the four serious contenders, I don’t see horses that are winners. They place well but for some reason can’t get the job done consistently, that makes them vulnerable. Ashtar is a Grade 1 and 3 winner in South America, decent pedigree, has won at this distance, good workouts at Hollywood Park and first time lasix.

One other interesting point, while I’m not one to take too much credence in weights, she is going into the Sunset with a 12 pound weight drop. Lastly, he has more wins lifetime than the rest of the field. Call it a hunch play, morning line is 8-1 and believe he will go off much higher.

With this race will say good bye to Hollywood Park and head to Del Mar!