In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose. Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.
There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1. He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start. His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it. He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed. Adding Jara only helps the cause.
The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park. He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more. Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today. Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board. In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F. The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.
The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1. This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race. First off we get a stretch out and surface change. Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers. In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today. Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will. He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.
Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!
Showing posts with label maidens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label maidens. Show all posts
Friday, April 27, 2012
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Saturday Night Special: 4th @ Santa Anita (Matinee Special)
I took a long look at the night races across the country and nothing really popped for me, so I took the 4th at Santa Anita to play for a Matinee Special. Its a Maiden Special Weight event for 3YO for $56,000 and we are going to look outside on this one.
#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1
He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's. Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively. There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo. Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady. At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.
If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1. This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season. Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.
#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1
He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's. Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively. There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo. Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady. At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.
If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1. This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season. Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Charles Town 03/27/2012
Yesterday at Turf Paradise we got King of the Sky at 14/1 off a ML of 6/1 and he finished second. He paid $9.80 for place and $5.60 to show. With a $12 investment, the return was $36.40 for a net profit of $24.40. A good start top the week.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Today, the DRF gives us the 7th race at Charles Town, a maiden special weight with a purse of $26,000. It's for 3YO and upward sprinting 7 panels. We have a field of 10 and it is a mix bag of seasoned maidens, a couple of lightly raced 3YO's and some first time starters. One of those salty races that we would normally pass on, but not today.
Where does that leave us? the #9 Stop the Bull ML 5/1.
There are several angles here with this 4YO first time starter. We can start with Lasix being used for the first time. Nice workout pattern since February, good breeding adds to the attractiveness. Jeff Runco is having a solid meet here at Charles Town and hits 24% on MSW along with 18% on first time starters. He has Montano in the irons who is one of better riders and with Runco hits 24% of the time.
With first time starters I would like to see some real value come our way, anything less than 10/1 would make me concerned. So how to play him. Since we got off to a good start yesterday, I might be willing to take some added risk today. If he floats over 10/1 then the stack bet ($2W,$4P,$6S) is on. If he goes off at 6/1 to 9/1 then $6 to show, knowing the show pool could work against us,but better than nothing.
This will be a quirky race, but first time starters can be nice value plays.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Play of the Day: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 03/22/2012
Yesterday turned out to be a no play day with our scratch at Aqueduct. In fact, three of the seven decided to be no go's in that stakes race. I hope the horses are fine, and Strike the Moon got hammered at the windows and the result showed it, placing third.
Today, we head down I-95 to Gulfstream Park and look at the 6th Race. It's a Maiden Special Weights for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on grass for a purse of $60,000. This is a good field and a lot of contention, there are no real glaring angles here, so we have to dig deeper. I like two of them, and the action at the tote will decide the direction. First one I like is ...
#5 Grouse ML 5/1
Hard not to like a Chad Brown entry at 5/1. This will be his third start and is stretching out a bit more. His last effort showed nice improvement, not only in his Beyer, but in his call slots, notice he ran closer up than his first effort. This will be his first spin on the weeds, but breeding says it should be fine. Also, there are some key races in his past, he has run against some good company. Leparoux is back on him, a good sign, Labaroux is hitting 16% on grass and 33% with Brown. One more point, is Chad Brown numbers with Turf, MSW and horses coming off short layoffs are excellent. The only issues is do we get 5/1? Probably not, but if he does or drifts higher then I play $2 to win $4 to place.
For value, I'll take the first time starter #7 Act of War(IRE) ML 10/1
The breeding suggest he is a good one, Lasix added and Garoffalo puts Velazquez on for the debut. I know Garoffalo doesn't have the greatest 1st time starter record, but his other stats are good. He is not a lock by any means, but it's an interesting situation for this first time starter. If we get our odds on Grouse, then I would put $6 to show on the #7 at 10/1 or higher, and I stress the higher. Lower no play.
There are other interesting entries, the #5 is a possible too. With this much contention and no overt angle play, things do get muddy. In the end, Grouse if we get the action, otherwise the #7 for a show play.
Today, we head down I-95 to Gulfstream Park and look at the 6th Race. It's a Maiden Special Weights for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on grass for a purse of $60,000. This is a good field and a lot of contention, there are no real glaring angles here, so we have to dig deeper. I like two of them, and the action at the tote will decide the direction. First one I like is ...
#5 Grouse ML 5/1
Hard not to like a Chad Brown entry at 5/1. This will be his third start and is stretching out a bit more. His last effort showed nice improvement, not only in his Beyer, but in his call slots, notice he ran closer up than his first effort. This will be his first spin on the weeds, but breeding says it should be fine. Also, there are some key races in his past, he has run against some good company. Leparoux is back on him, a good sign, Labaroux is hitting 16% on grass and 33% with Brown. One more point, is Chad Brown numbers with Turf, MSW and horses coming off short layoffs are excellent. The only issues is do we get 5/1? Probably not, but if he does or drifts higher then I play $2 to win $4 to place.
For value, I'll take the first time starter #7 Act of War(IRE) ML 10/1
The breeding suggest he is a good one, Lasix added and Garoffalo puts Velazquez on for the debut. I know Garoffalo doesn't have the greatest 1st time starter record, but his other stats are good. He is not a lock by any means, but it's an interesting situation for this first time starter. If we get our odds on Grouse, then I would put $6 to show on the #7 at 10/1 or higher, and I stress the higher. Lower no play.
There are other interesting entries, the #5 is a possible too. With this much contention and no overt angle play, things do get muddy. In the end, Grouse if we get the action, otherwise the #7 for a show play.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th Race at Parx 03/20/12
Last night at Mountaineer we had Magnificent Mile going off at 5/1, and he finished second. I would have liked to have seen 8/1 or better, but the tote held firm, and the show pool looked weak. Regardless, let's say we wanted the action, still liked him and we took a stack play on him ($2W,$4P,$6S). We put $12, and taking the risk that if he comes in third we are going to take a bath. The result is we get a return of $21.60 for a profit of $9.60. Not too bad, but not sure the risk was worth it on a $5000 claimer race.
Today, we try Parx Racing. It's the 7th race, going a mile and 70 yards for 3YO maidens, MSW$45,000.
Most of the money should go to the Dutrow entry #6 Yoginis, and with any luck my selection the #7 Schist might rise above the ML of 6/1. The angle here is a hot trainer, Cathal Lynch, who hits 21% on MSW, and 36% 1st claim. She puts Arroyo on board that does well with her horses and has a good maiden record, as well. Playing Maiden Claimers back to Maiden Special Weights is a risky proposition, especially after a dull performance, and stretching out. This is strictly an overlay play, we must get better than 6/1, thinking 9/1 or higher or there is NO play.
Looking at any others in here that can beat the #6, I like the #9 Lookiingatlangfurhr. Nice second effort, and grabbed second ahead of Yoginis.
Today, we try Parx Racing. It's the 7th race, going a mile and 70 yards for 3YO maidens, MSW$45,000.
Most of the money should go to the Dutrow entry #6 Yoginis, and with any luck my selection the #7 Schist might rise above the ML of 6/1. The angle here is a hot trainer, Cathal Lynch, who hits 21% on MSW, and 36% 1st claim. She puts Arroyo on board that does well with her horses and has a good maiden record, as well. Playing Maiden Claimers back to Maiden Special Weights is a risky proposition, especially after a dull performance, and stretching out. This is strictly an overlay play, we must get better than 6/1, thinking 9/1 or higher or there is NO play.
Looking at any others in here that can beat the #6, I like the #9 Lookiingatlangfurhr. Nice second effort, and grabbed second ahead of Yoginis.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Price Play For Sunday, 1st Race @Gulfstream
Normally I don't blog on Sundays, for I'm either in a tournament or playing for my own account. However, I spotted an interesting price play at Gulfstream Park today in the 1st race. It's a maiden claiming ($12,500) going 51/2 furlongs. The price play is ...
#5 Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1
She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance. I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.
I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off. Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.
Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters. Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.
Good luck!!
#5 Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1
She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance. I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.
I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off. Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.
Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters. Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.
Good luck!!
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Pick of the Day: 9th Race Will Rogers Downs, MdnSpcWgt
Well a long shot won yesterday in the 8th race at Turf Paradise, unfortunately it wasn't our selection. Bell Biltz broke out nicely and then faded away, so much for the change of venue. Today, we head to Oklahoma to try our hand with a group of maidens going 5 1/2 furlongs for $21,600. I've never handicapped Will Rogers Downs, and this group of 12 has little experience, except two. I will avoid the first time starters here and go with the #5 Konawa Slew ML 5/1.
He has had two nice races, the last one brought out a 62 Beyer, which is above par for this group. I also like how he improved his position at each call from his first outing, he stayed close and then fell off at the end. Both the winner and place horses have gone on to win again, so you have the key horse angle here. The trainer, Offolter, has a solid record, especially with maidens and layoffs. No jockey or weight changes to concern ourselves with. The big issue will the crowd jump on board? If the odds drop below 3/1 then we layoff the play. It's a crowded field so the money could get spread around.
Record:
Selections: 5
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
He has had two nice races, the last one brought out a 62 Beyer, which is above par for this group. I also like how he improved his position at each call from his first outing, he stayed close and then fell off at the end. Both the winner and place horses have gone on to win again, so you have the key horse angle here. The trainer, Offolter, has a solid record, especially with maidens and layoffs. No jockey or weight changes to concern ourselves with. The big issue will the crowd jump on board? If the odds drop below 3/1 then we layoff the play. It's a crowded field so the money could get spread around.
Record:
Selections: 5
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 1
Friday, March 2, 2012
5th Race @Santa Anita for March 2nd
Deputy Darling was a disappointment yesterday at Gulfstream finishing 7th. I didn't get to see the race but did read the recap, well not much in her case. It read like she went on a tour of the course, strange for a Micheal Maker horse. The only consolation was Mr. Illman at the DRF liked her chances too, so it's good to know I didn't misread it entirely. Today the DRF is tossing us another maiden special weight, but this time it's at Santa Anita. It will be the 5th race on turf, a sprint of six and a half furlongs for 3YO fillies. As a reminder, the Santa Anita turf course starts on a downhill run, it can be tricky.
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
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