We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1. He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return. That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race. It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's. The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
