Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Play of the Day: 5th Race at Hawthorne 3/28/2012

Last night at Charles Town, Stop the Bull came in second on a dead heat. Unfortunately, he went off at his morning line of 5/1, and we needed a lot better than that to take the risk.  The selection worked but the value didn't. So in the end he would have been a no play.

Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne.  It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.

This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year.  The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72.  In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value.  The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back.  Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.

I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.