Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Play of the Day: 7th Race at Parx 03/20/12

Last night at Mountaineer we had Magnificent Mile going off at 5/1, and he finished second. I would have liked to have seen 8/1 or better, but the tote held firm, and the show pool looked weak. Regardless, let's say we wanted the action, still liked him and we took  a stack play on him ($2W,$4P,$6S).  We put $12, and taking the risk that if he comes in third we are going to take a bath. The result is we get a return of $21.60 for a profit of $9.60. Not too bad, but not sure the risk was worth it on a $5000 claimer race.

Today, we try Parx Racing.  It's the 7th race, going a mile and 70 yards for 3YO maidens, MSW$45,000.
 
Most of the money should go to the Dutrow entry #6 Yoginis, and with any luck my selection the #7 Schist might rise above the ML of 6/1.  The angle here is a hot trainer, Cathal Lynch, who hits 21% on MSW, and 36% 1st claim.  She puts Arroyo on board that does well with her horses and has a good maiden record, as well.  Playing Maiden Claimers back to Maiden Special Weights is a risky proposition, especially after a dull performance, and stretching out. This is strictly an overlay play, we must get better than 6/1, thinking 9/1 or higher or there is NO play.

Looking at any others in here that can beat the #6, I like the #9 Lookiingatlangfurhr. Nice second effort, and grabbed second ahead of Yoginis.