Guaranteed Pick 4 Balmoral Selection 8/31 Winner's Galore

Before we take a look at tonight’s Pick 4 selections, I’d like to look back on Sunday results. It is obvious, I didn’t hit it or my Monday blog would have been full of whoops and hollers. It was one of those tough nights were there was so many good horses and the ones left off made me pay for it. First race we hit it with Majestic Royale winning. Race 8 saw Nite to Remember win and I mentioned he might be a factor, and he was, blowing up the card. Next was Perfect Rendition winning and this was a total miss on my part. Looking back over the form this horse had every reason to be in the mix. Lastly, we went single with Little Gus and mentioned a concern with Rejoiceandbeglad, and sure enough he won and drove the stake through my handicapping heart. The Pick 4 paid a nice $1424.20.

In talking with some friends, they feel I’m making it more difficult on myself using a $24 ticket. If I expanded a bit more and used $90, the hit ratio would be much higher, for I could add additional horses. They contend it’s not my handicapping but a too tight of a ticket that reduces the “hit ratio” and they use Sunday as an example. Adding those three horses would have made the ticket $96 and the return would be over $1400. Their rationale is correct, but I explained to them I was trying to show good handicapping skills and some old fashion luck you could still hit the Pick 4. I may change later, but for now it’s a $24 ticket and 10 horses.

So tonight is Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral Park in Crete, IL and here are the selections:

Race 7: #1 Itzalassi ML 6/1 #4 Air Sissy ML 9/2 #7 Sport N Lady ML 3/1

I like all three these and would’ve had a difficult time choosing just one. If I had to choose one I would go with #4 Air Sissy, dropping down in class with improving speed figures, Casey Leonard staying with her and the trainer has a nice ROI in class drops. She just feels right in this spot.

Race 8: #3 Accountable Lady ML 8/1 #4 Night’s All Night ML 3/1 #7 No Doubt ML 6/1 #8 Sugar Bunny ML 9/2

I broke ranks and took four horses for this race; it’s that contentious and wide open. I like #8 No Doubt here for she has shown nice speed fig’s, Warren and Yoder have worked well together and she won two back. Last outing she was parked out so will toss it out and say she comes back and wins it. The other one is #8 Sugar Bunny playing the recent claim angle, Perry Smith has a nice ROI with recent claims and changes drivers to Eric Carlson who is having a good year.

Race 9: #7 Ave Marie ML 3/1 #9 Mad Cow Lisa ML 6/1

Could make a strong argument to single the #7 here but #9 Mad Cow Lisa has won 5 in a row and is moving up in class. I have a strong bias to horses that have done well consistently and are moving through the conditions. Smolin is in the buggy and Makin is doing well. Overall, Ave Marie is the key horse here with strong consistent speed figures (80-79-79-79) and has either won or been ITM in her last 7 efforts. John Roberts and Erin Elliott are a strong team.

Race 10: #7 Maranatha Hanover ML 4/1

This filly has been gradually improving with each race, she is trained and driven by John Roberts and her speed and class equals any of the others in this race. She isn’t a lock by any circumstances, the #8 Maladar is tough and has been consistent as well. But in the end the #7 is faster and I believe this will be her night to win.

Acclamation on his way to take HOY honors

We have seen some great racing this season and each of us has our favorites. Sure, there are no dominating 3YO fillies or colts, and in a way that is good for racing. Even the older horses can’t seem to manage to dominate their groups until this Sunday. After the Del Mar Pacific Classic, Acclamation has all rights to carry the mantle of being the best for 2011.

His record speaks for itself. The only horse to win 3 Grade One races this year (three in a row). All three races had different jockeys and he has won on both turf and synthetic. The three wins were wire to wire and the last was a track record for 1 ¼ miles, Synthetic (and he has won at this distance on turf and timed faster). What makes this really special is he is a Cal Bred, not Florida or Kentucky, but bred by his owners and with only one trainer, Don Warren.

With winning the Pacific Classic they are in the Breeders Cup, I doubt he will run in the Classic and will go back to the turf. He has sixty days before the BC Turf and not sure we will see him until then, but if he wins the Breeders Cup Turf at a mile and a half he is horse of the year!

For now though he is the Number One horse in the country.

It's Sunday - Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 @ Balmoral Selections

Last night my Pick 4 got creamed. I knew I was in trouble when Vette Man won the 10th race. I had a bad feeling leaving him off the ticket but someone had to go, wrong one. One thing you learn about race handicapping is how humbling it can be, get cocky winning or getting close and then a rough lesson is handed to you. Yesterday for me was such a lesson. So starting over and getting back to the 3-3-3-1 routine and staying focused we may get back on track. Last night the Pick 4 paid $5608.30, nice pay day! We will continue with our $27 ticket and our balance is now $132.10. Here we go …

Race 7 #2 Towneism ML 5/2 #5 Bell Valley Zeke ML 5/1 #6 Majestic Royale 3/1

I’m with Majestic Royale here. Has back to back 2nd’s and last race showed some form improvement. Consistent speed figures and Leonard does well this gelding. Going to throw out Bell Valley Zeke last outing where he was parked outside. Has strong speed pairings and John Roberts has great ROI here.

Race 8 #2 Fox Valley Oracle ML 5/1 #5 Bob’s Minute Maid ML 6/1 Joinusforsomefun ML 4/1

This is the tough race of the four. Highly contentious and Nite to Remember will be a factor. I’m going with Bob’s Minute Maid to win this race. Smolin hasn’t won with her yet, but she showed great improvement last outing. Her speed figures get better with each race, and she knocked off some time last going.

Race 9 #1 Hitithard ML 9/1 #6 Classy Chassy ML 10/1 #10 Lookin’ Ahead ML 4/1

Another difficult race and thought of singling #1 Hitithard here, but still like Classy Chassy. I went back and watched the race, and she was boxed in all the way to the stretch, she moved up smartly but there was no room to clear, losing by 3 lengths. Her speed stays in the 80’s and Roberts has a .348 ROI with her. If she can get out and clear the field she has a great chance to win.

Race 10 #8 Little Gus ML 3/1

His last race was a nice stair step improvement through each call. Speed pairs well at 75-76 and pushed last out to the end. The one that we need to watch is Rejoiceandbeglad that is moving up in class off a solid win. She hasn’t gone as fast as Little Gus but recent winners moving up give me to pause. Otherwise, I don’t see anyone else getting close.

The ticket looks a bit chalky with no real longshots, but didn't see anything that looked threatening. Looking at Classy Chassy as the price play of the group. So let's finish the weekend of with a nice ticket to cash!

Good luck to all of you ...

$20,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral tonight

Tonight at Balmoral is the Guaranteed $20,000 Pick 4 and last Saturday we hit it! Before we get started, last Wednesday night we missed the Pick 4 by one. Looking back should have taken Toshie’s Place as the single and would have had another one for $290.00. Tonight we’re going to do something different, instead of singling one race we’re going to do a 3 -2 - 2 - 3. This is an experiment, having hit one of three singles, so the idea is to spread the risk out a bit and forsake the longshot in two races. Our ticket is still $27 and the balance left is $159.10.

Here we go:

Race 10: #1/1A Major Monet ML 8/1, #4 All American Bomber ML 8/1, Special Joe ML 4/1

This is a wide open race and was tough leaving Vette Man off the ticket. I’m leaning to Major Monet here with a huge improvement last out coming in second and tightening up its final time. All American Bomber is moving up in class and the trainer hits about 12% of time, add Marcus Miller in the buggy and you have to respect this horse.

Race 11: #1 Popperosa ML 8/1 #6 Giddy Up Boy ML 4/1

Like both of these horses, had them in a previous ticket and Popperosa won for us on the 20th. I’m going to stay with Popperosa, she is moving up in class but like her due to speed/time form and Miller again. Giddy Up Boy showed a strong form improvement, good ROI with Roberts and Kreischer connection, could finally beat them all.

Race 12: #3 Johnny B Cool ML 4/1 #6 Rocket Dog 9/2

Johnny B Cool had a big race on the 20th finishing 2nd in a $4,000 CL event. Looks like is in great form and should be interesting with Smolin back at the reins. I like Rocket Dog here based on excellent speed of 75 relative to the others and rounding into form. Coming out of the 6 slot and Casey Leonard driving, just one of those steady horses that knows how to win.

Race 13: #4 Bring The Rain ML 8/1 #5 Real or Magic 4/1 #6 Drive’em Cowboy ML 9/2

While Bring The Rain looks the strongest of the three, I am going with Real or Magic. Had a good outing in Springfield, his speed and class fit nicely here and the Seekman/Fountane have a nice ROI together of .317. If you’re not buying my logic then go with Bring The Rain. Who ran an improved race last out and is getting Miller for the first time, very dangerous horse here.

With some luck tonight we catch some prices and cash a nice Pick 4. Don’t forget the 50 cent Trifecta on the 13th race. Tomorrow night will post selections for the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4 at Balmoral.

$15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Selection ... Chicken dinner tonight!

Here we are, another week of great horse racing, there are seven Grade 1 races scheduled for the weekend. Saratoga with four, Del Mar two and Monmouth with one and a slew of Grade 2 races and Calder is hosting a Saturday of 2YO stake races. Right know I haven’t decided which two races I will handicap for HANA, so if you readers have any suggestions leave a comment. Last weekend, I handicapped the Del Mar Oaks and Sky Classic. Two very interesting races, the Oaks showed us how good Summer Soiree really is holding off Nereid and Star Billing and in the Sky Classic a shocker with Kara’s Orientation just plain ran away from the field. I believe at one time she was 17 lengths in the lead down the back stretch and won by 2+ lengths.

Also, I’m in the last two weeks of Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park. After 120 races I have had 28 winners (24%) and now in the top 20%. It has been a marathon, and like the contest is called, it is a Survival! Now on to harness racing, it is Wednesday Night and that means …

$15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral Park in Crete IL. Last week we hit a small one of $260 on our $27 budget so we have a bit of profit to play this week. The races are 7-10 and the takeout is a small 14%, so let’s get started with the selections:

Race 7 #2 Mimi McBride ML 10/1 #5 BS Mary’s Delight ML 6/1 #6 Toshie Delight ML 5/2

Like Toshie Delight here, we had her last week and she finished 2nd, real consistent speed and other than Mimi McBride is the fastest currently.

Race 8 #1 Nannah Montana ML 6/1 #3 Kitty O’Brien ML 5/2 #5 No Doubt ML 5/2

This is a tough race, like both the #3 and #5. Leaning to the #5 due to strong speed figures and won last out and Todd Warren is staying in the buggy.

Race 9 #2 Mearl Finn ML 5/2 #7 Perky B Skipalong ML 6/1 #8 Mattjestic Help ML 6/1

The #2 and #8 were part of our winning night last Saturday. The safe bet is with the #2 but going say #8 in this spot. She is dropping down in class, two strong efforts with Leroy Miller driving and knocked off some serious time in her last race. She won’t get off at 30/1 like last Saturday but sitting in the 8th hole she might get overlooked again.

Race 10 #6 Racy Traci Place ML 15/1

This seems like a strange place for the single. But she is dropping down in class, David Fagan has a decent ROI and trains as well as drives. She has consistent speed of late, and while a non winner of 12 here at Balmoral, she just feels right in this spot.

Good luck and “here they come”

$12,841 Pick 4 winner at Balmoral Sunday!

We rolled into Balmoral with one of two Pick 4’s under our belt for the week. Sunday was the Guaranteed $25,000 Pick 4. Yesterday, I handicapped the four races and listed the ticket. Keeping the Pick 4 ticket to $27, this allows us to use ten horses in any combination. Right now I have been using the 1 – 3 – 3 – 3 method. The concept is to find one strong favorite to single and then spreading out over three horses in the other three races. The idea in handicapping for three horses is to find the favorite, a solid horse with odds around 3/1 to 8/1 and then the best longshot. The goal is for the single to win, of course, and have the largest payouts win the other three races for a big Pick 4 ticket. Worse case, if the favorites win out over the four races we walk away with something. Well last night Balmoral had a super large Pick 4 ticket, $12,841.50. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the right longshots on the ticket. Here is the recap:

R7 #Temperment won going off at 11/1. When I looked at this race, I considered her but shifted over to Devachan. It was a tough decision and no regrets.

R8 #Detailer with odds of 10/1 was the winner. This is another one that I took a long look at but chose Classy Chassy instead. With these two longshots hitting you knew this Pick 4 was going to be large.

R9 #3 Reilly’s Daughter went off as the favorite and shot down the rail to win. This one was on our ticket. Little surprised she went off the favorite the ML had her around 5/1.

R10 #10 Miss Kelley Lynne (who I had in the 50 cent Trifecta) rolled in the winner at 23/1!! I had this race for the single with Forcryingoutloud who finished 2nd. Missed the 50 cent Trifecta with Osage coming in 5th.

As I mentioned before the payout for the Pick 4 was $12,841.50 a monster night! That now leaves us with a profit of $186.10. See you on Wednesday for the $15,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Balmoral.

Sunday $25,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Selections for Balmoral

Last night at Balmoral we hit the Pick 4 for $267.10 on a $27 ticket; the total pool was $23,496.00. Albeit a small score, but hit those once a week allows us to push the envelope on our selections for bigger paydays. So far we have spent $54 and have a $213.10 profit.

Tonight, the Pick 4 is a Guaranteed $25,000 event and again a $27 ticket will be used. The ticket last night started with a single, tonight it will end with a single. The selections tonight are as follows, horses in bold are my 1st place selections.

Race 7 #2 Odds On Moinet ML 4/1, #3 Cam Town Carrie ML 5/2, #5 Devachan ML 10/1

Race 8 #3 GRC Travel King ML 6/1, #6 Classy Chassy ML 10/1, #7 Lookin’ Ahead ML 5/2

Race 9 #3 Reilly’s Daughter ML 2/1, #6 Mattjestic Help ML 15/1, #8 Fox Valley Oracle
ML 6/1

Race 10 #7 Forcryingoutloud ML 5/2

Remember, Balmoral has only a 14% takeout on the Pick 4

Good luck and let’s make it 2 of 3 this weekend!

Balmoral $20,000 Pick 4 Selections and a 1-2-3 day at the track

Tonight at Balmoral Park is a Guaranteed Pick 4 for $20,000, along with it being $2 Miller Lite night. Before I cover the selections for the Pick 4, I wanted to spotlight the results from the Alabama and Del Mar Oaks today. All know I like It’s Tricky and selected her to win the Alabama. Today, Royal Delta made amends for her loss to It’s Tricky last out, and won with a strong effort down the stretch. It’s Tricky finished 2nd. Congratulations to Bill Mott and his team for having Royal Delta ready. In the Del Mar Oaks, the West Coast version of the Alabama, but on turf. I had Nereid winning this race. The result was Summer Soiree hanging on to beat Nereid and Star Billing. So the day ended with one winner (Finale at Monmouth), a second (It's Tricky at Saratoga) and a third (Nereid at Del Mar). Now let's get the Pick 4 and go home happy.


Now for the Pick 4 at Balmoral. Our budget is $27 per ticket. Horses in bold are my first place selections.

The selections are as follows:

Race 10: #5 Fools Gold ML 5-2

Race 11: #2 Dry Creek Striker ML 5-1, #4 Giddy Up Boy ML4-1, #7 Vroomrang ML 7-2

Race 12: #3 KB’s Taylor ML 15-1, #4 Popperware ML 6-1, #7 King Z Tan 3-1

Race 13: #1 Maximus Meridus ML 5-1, #4 R. E. Farewell ML 8-1, #6 Johnny B Cool ML 8-1

Balance: ($27)

No chicken dinner at Balmoral, Surviving the Shore and It's Tricky

Going to start the blog with a recap of the pick 4 at Balmoral, then onto the for HANA’s Weekend Handicap (Saturday and Sunday).

Last night was my first Pick 4 on harness racing, and like I said a total rookie. So here are the results. Race #7 my first choice won, Rejoiceandbeglad. He went off as the favorite and returned $5.40 on a $2 win ticket, not too bad and first race covered. Race #8 is next and Onebrewfortheroad won as the favorite and paid $4.60. She was my second choice behind Toshie Special who finished 2nd. Now two races covered and the dreaded single next in R#9. I took a chance on Cam’s Magic MaeMae, not on her past performances but her being in the 8 spot. As I understand it, the more outside a Pacer is the tougher to win. She went off at the third favorite and finished last. Cole Blue a 12-1 went wire to wire and won by 5+ lengths and killing my Pick 4. Now, as a good handicapper, I went back to see what did I miss? Right now I can’t see any glaring stat that would have put her in any grouping little lone a single. The only thing is two back she raced well at Maywood coming out of the #1 slot where she started last night. Chalk it up to it was her night. So on to R#10. Just because we are knocked out we still have to see how we did anyway, right? The #5 CoCoChino that I had in my group won going off at 11-1!! She paid $25.60 to win. So we snagged 3 of 4 the first time out. Not bad, but no chicken dinner. The pool was $18,893 and it paid $1279.00.

Now the race selections for this weekend Handicap Weekend with HANA. I will say it now, not the Alabama. Why? I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan, she is going to win. There that race is done. Seriously, I think she is the best filly in the country and should win her third G1 (making her the first horse of the season to win 3 G1’s). The field is talented, but It’s Tricky will just grind you down, she is tough, real grit and she is on a roll. The only threat is Inglorious from Woodbine, but down the stretch It’s Tricky just takes them out. So the races are: Del Mar Oaks G1 $250K 3YO 1 1/8 turf on Saturday and for Sunday, we are going North to Woodbine for the Sky Classic G2 $250K 3YO+ 1 ¼ turf.

Lastly, am still surviving the Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park, in fact, I need to handicap three races tonight for Friday. I lost one of two life preservers last week due to sloppy handicapping. Since the goal now is to survive to the end, the risk factor has risen so will require tighter handicapping on my part.

See you all tomorrow over at HANA with the Del Mar Oaks analysis.

Let's go trotting at Balmoral -Guaranteed $15,000 Pick 4!

I will admit when it comes to harness racing I have very little knowledge. My first experience was at Hollywood Park and the first race had a horse named Lucky John V. Now folks that know me will get it immediately, and you can imagine the outcome. He won and it was at a good price, don’t remember the exact amount but it was good. Admittedly it all went right back, as I was clueless on handicapping trotters. Later in life, I was living New Jersey near Freehold, and went to the harness races there. The two memories I have of that track was the gentleman that stood on a platform and wrote out the odds on a chalk board, his printing was amazing. The other, was all the drivers were named Fillion or it seemed.

So where is this all leading? Recently, I had read an article from HANA that discussed Balmoral Park’s reducing its Pick 4 take out from 25% to 14%. The interesting stat is that when at 25% take out the average pool was $7800. Now with the reduction the average pool is $30,000! So that piqued my interest and did some research on Balmoral Park here in Illinois. I had no idea it has been open since 1926 and races almost all year long. It’s a one mile circuit that can seat 71,000 and has a stable area that can accommodate 900 horses, and understand they are nearly full all season. It’s a gem!

I highlight this for it is these kinds of small tracks that have figured out how to market to new fans, offer good purses and see by lowering the take out they can attract more wagering dollars. I commend them for their foresight. One marketing activity is on Saturday nights, Miller Lite Night. Live music and $2 Miller Lites and $2 food off the grill, that’s a nice deal. They guarantee the pick 4 on Wednesday ($15,000), Saturday ($20,000) and Sunday ($25,000). So if you are a harness racing fan this is one track you need to explore. You can wager on TVG if you are out of state and the Balmoral’s website has video of past races. One thing to note, the USTA provides free TrackMaster PP’s for the Pick 4’s at Balmoral.

Now the fun part, I will handicap the Pick 4 on Wednesday nights. For tonight August 17, 2011 the selections are as follows (remember I’m a neophyte with harness racing but it will be fun):

Race 7: #1 Cole Call/#1A Western Bear #4 Fox Valley Ron #7 Rejoiceandbeglad

Race 8: #5 Onebrewfortheroad #6 Toshie Special #10 BS Mary’s Delight

Race 9: #8 Cam’s Magic MaeMae

Race10: #1 Incredible Legacy #3 Mandy’s Gold #5 Cocochino

Ticket: $27 on a $1 Pick 4

Going forward will keep track of my success with the Balmoral Pick 4, good luck and cash those tickets!

Handicapping European Invaders & Not By A Longshot @Suffolk Downs

In researching the analysis for the Arlington Million (posted at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ ), I had read an article on BrisNet, that made the comment about second level European horses coming to the USA and taking down major stakes races. Using Cape Blanco in the ManoWar as an example. That reminded me of the Night School class on Handicapping European Horses. (Night School is at http://www.horseplayernow.com/ and if you miss the Monday class the replays are available) Since imports are part of our horse racing landscape, I would like to share some ideas from Night School in handicapping those imports. The highlights are as follows:

1. Many of the European horses that come to the States are trying to avoid softer course footing, and are looking to run on firm ground. A horse that has been failing overseas when running over this bogged-down turf are candidates for improvement when getting on fast going.

2. Pay close attention to the Euros in their morning work in the days leading up to the race ... are they galloping strongly prior to that scheduled race. A good source for that is http://www.gradeoneracing.com/

3. Europeans train and race daily on softer course conditions; any horse with European pedigree or experience should have an edge on the Americans on softer footing.

4. Euro Bounce: Many theorize that European imports run best right off the plane, but can regress in performance if they remain in the States and acclimate fully to the new training schedules, time zones, etc. This is one reason why I picked Gio Ponti over Cape Blanco in the Million.

The class has other great information, so if this is an area that you wish to focus your handicapping or just improve overall, then check out Night School.

On a different topic, I just finished reading T.D. Thornton's book "Not By A Longshot". It is a look into the 2000 racing season at Suffolk Downs (mid level track in the Boston area). Mr. Thornton brings to the horse racing fan a rare look at the people and activities on the backstretch, exposure to the politics that horse racing deals with and the characters of our great sport. He weaved all aspects mentioned through the entire book and some might bring tears to your eyes. It is a good read, and one for your bookcase.

I will be handicapping for tomorrow at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ so take a look and appreciate all your input. Have a great day and cash those tickets!

Bench Points a Real Good Deal?

At Del Mar, late this afternoon is the Real Good Deal Stakes race going 7 furlongs. The purse is for $100K and there is a real nice 3YO gelding in the field. With only 8 races under his belt, Bench Points has shown that he will be one of the top sprinters on the West Coast. Right now he is solid G3 sprinter winning the Laz Barrera Memorial (G3) at Hollywood Park by a nose and posting an impressive 96 Beyer. After that his connections ran him in the G1 Triple Bend and Smiling Tiger was a power house that day. Again, Bench Points posted a respectable Beyer of 95. So out of 8 races he has won 5, the two loses were at the G1 level and the other was the G2 San Felipe were he ran a distant 3rd. He is one to definitely put into your virtual stable.

For today’s race, I see no reason he will not repeat against this field, he is well rested, good workouts at Del Mar and Bejarano stays in the irons. Unfortunately, a wicked good horse but lousy odds, and one who looks for value and the upset factor. I really had to stretch to find one that might bring a good race at Bench Points. I see only one horse that getting the best trip, not bouncing from last outing, could make trouble and steal this purse. That would be Warren’s Knockout. He has won 3 of 8, including the Grey Memorial Stakes (71K), has posted Beyer’s in the 90’s at this distance. Has raced against some tough horses and held his own, like Prayer For Relief (won WVA Derby G2), Cloud Man and Burns. The issue with Warren’s Knockout is that he is coming back somewhat quickly from his last win and has a tendency to bounce off good efforts. That makes him the classic dark horse.

A lot will depend on the race shape for there is little front end speed in this group. Chiloquin should be the one to take them out, but don’t see enough in him to go wire to wire. The rest will press and not sure if any will take the lead if offered. Bench Points and Warren’s Knockout are both closers, along with Lucky Mr. K 9 (who is dangerous in his own right). If both can stay clear of trouble, and find the lane home it could turn into a fun duel to watch. But in the end, Bench Points should be the Real Good Deal. A win/place wager on Warren’s Knockout at 6-1 or better.

Creative Cause is our new Best Pal

We all know that Bob Baffert is a great trainer, and has a marvelous stable of 2YO’s. Even though, I believed Brigand would continue to show us another Baffert winner, I was happy for Mike Harrington to bring us a great looking horse in Creative Cause. He is everything his first race showed, and Bejarano set him up perfectly. Well done to the connections and we can expect great things from this 2YO going forward. (The race replay is below). Race analysis at HANA

In looking at the rest of the field, my choice, I’ll Have Another went off at a nice price of 6-1 and raced well. Took the lead and really didn’t relent to the better horse till near the end. I expect we will see big things of him too. The big surprise was Mighty Monsoon (Bombs Away choice). He got off to a terrible start, lagged the field and down the stretch kicked into gear. Not sure if a better start would have helped him in catching Creative Cause, but he was flying at the end. Look for him to show up in routes and grass events.

Brigand and Galex were disappointments. Both pressed early and seemed to vanish on the turn for home and Night Tide showed nothing. I mentioned in the analysis a concern about Night Tide grittiness and he showed again no fire. Not sure how I see him going forward. I do expect to see Brigand come back and do well, thinking this might have been a race regression from last out effort. He’ll be back.

Enjoy the race replay and see you later in the week.

BC ignores Belmont and NJ cuts Monmouth/Meadowlands dates

I normally don't use this blog for the political mess that horse racing gets drawn into. I leave that to the good people at HANA and others that are far more in the know than me.

In that vain, I have linked two articles for your reading. One by Steve Crist regarding the BC decision to by pass Belmont. The next one is the new law signed by the NJ Governor reducing the racing dates at Monmouth Park and Meadowlands for next season. He also took away the casino subsidy for both tracks but is still against having slots at thetracks. Reads like the casino operators have Christie in their pockets. Racing Law

Look forward to your comments and will be posting the analysis for tomorrows Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar later today at the HANA blog site.

Tale of Two Races -7th at DelMar

Before I dive into the 7th race at Del Mar, wanted to share a gimmick angle from Marc Cramer. It is really simple and requires no handicapping. Simply look at the handicapper grid from the DRF and look for the one horse that is selected to win that no other handicapper mentions at all. Today in the 6th at Del Mar, the horse, Memphis qualifies. Hermes selected him to win, the other selectors didn’t not even mention him. Per Marc Cramer be prepared for long losing streaks with this angle but when they hit the mutual’s are large!

One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.

Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.

When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:

1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?

2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.

3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.

That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.

Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.

1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.

2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.

3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.

I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.

Instinctual Winner At Monmouth and gotta love 2YO's

Whoever said, “Less is more” made have been on to something, I was out of town this weekend and had little time to handicap the nine races for the Survival at the Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park. The result was four winners and one third out of nine races. That got me thinking. I have said time and again that I deny my instincts and do too much analysis, which I know believe leads to paralysis. The lessoned learned is, “less is more.”

Two examples of that would be the selection of Romacaca in the Taylor Made Matchmaker (G3) and Coil in the Haskell (G1). In regards to Romacaca, she had won five previous starts; I had her back on July 3rd when she won the Miss Liberty. I took a quick look at the field and didn’t see anyone that was in better form than her. Played the recent winner angle moving up in class and paid $13.20 to win!

In looking at the Haskell, I dumbed (me not Baffert) it down and went with Baffert. His barn is red hot, and since none of the big names being bandied about have impressed me, I took the connections angle and Coil gave one of those Animal Kingdom finishes. The result was a tidy $8.40 payoff. Now if I can just remember this every weekend. Listen to the inner voice grasshopper!

There is one great race to share from this weekend; #4 Winter Memories winning the Lake George (G2), it was exceptional. When you watch it notice at the ¾ pole, Jose Lezcano had to almost bring Winter Memories to a complete stop, after that what takes place is spectacular.



On a handicapping note, if you have not had the opportunity to attend Night School brought to you by HorseplayerNow, please do so. I attended a couple of weeks ago on the topic of 2 year olds. The panel was excellent, well versed and answered all our questions. What I found interesting was the tidbits of information you got when the panelist would talk amongst themselves. I would like to share a few things I learned. In 2 year olds it’s about pedigree, workouts and trainers. In pedigree, look for a high percentage 2YO debut sires, like Tapit. There was a discussion that the dam is now becoming just as important. With workouts, it’s not just the bullet workouts that matter, but also works with top horses and seasoned runners from the same barn. The DRF/Equibase has those workout tabs available. Finally, look for high percentage 2YO debut trainers. Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer are two examples. The DRF has trainer reports and BrisNet supplies the same information in there pp’s.

Lastly, will share one of Jeremy Plonk’s tips, “expect improvement from 1st to 2nd start, especially those who broke from the rail in their debut, or are changing distance/surface/rider or show improvement in workouts.” I would like to add equipment too, blinkers being the big one.