We have seen some great racing this season and each of us has our favorites. Sure, there are no dominating 3YO fillies or colts, and in a way that is good for racing. Even the older horses can’t seem to manage to dominate their groups until this Sunday. After the Del Mar Pacific Classic, Acclamation has all rights to carry the mantle of being the best for 2011.
His record speaks for itself. The only horse to win 3 Grade One races this year (three in a row). All three races had different jockeys and he has won on both turf and synthetic. The three wins were wire to wire and the last was a track record for 1 ¼ miles, Synthetic (and he has won at this distance on turf and timed faster). What makes this really special is he is a Cal Bred, not Florida or Kentucky, but bred by his owners and with only one trainer, Don Warren.
With winning the Pacific Classic they are in the Breeders Cup, I doubt he will run in the Classic and will go back to the turf. He has sixty days before the BC Turf and not sure we will see him until then, but if he wins the Breeders Cup Turf at a mile and a half he is horse of the year!
For now though he is the Number One horse in the country.
Showing posts with label Del Mar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Del Mar. Show all posts
Monday, August 29, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
No chicken dinner at Balmoral, Surviving the Shore and It's Tricky
Going to start the blog with a recap of the pick 4 at Balmoral, then onto the for HANA’s Weekend Handicap (Saturday and Sunday).
Last night was my first Pick 4 on harness racing, and like I said a total rookie. So here are the results. Race #7 my first choice won, Rejoiceandbeglad. He went off as the favorite and returned $5.40 on a $2 win ticket, not too bad and first race covered. Race #8 is next and Onebrewfortheroad won as the favorite and paid $4.60. She was my second choice behind Toshie Special who finished 2nd. Now two races covered and the dreaded single next in R#9. I took a chance on Cam’s Magic MaeMae, not on her past performances but her being in the 8 spot. As I understand it, the more outside a Pacer is the tougher to win. She went off at the third favorite and finished last. Cole Blue a 12-1 went wire to wire and won by 5+ lengths and killing my Pick 4. Now, as a good handicapper, I went back to see what did I miss? Right now I can’t see any glaring stat that would have put her in any grouping little lone a single. The only thing is two back she raced well at Maywood coming out of the #1 slot where she started last night. Chalk it up to it was her night. So on to R#10. Just because we are knocked out we still have to see how we did anyway, right? The #5 CoCoChino that I had in my group won going off at 11-1!! She paid $25.60 to win. So we snagged 3 of 4 the first time out. Not bad, but no chicken dinner. The pool was $18,893 and it paid $1279.00.
Now the race selections for this weekend Handicap Weekend with HANA. I will say it now, not the Alabama. Why? I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan, she is going to win. There that race is done. Seriously, I think she is the best filly in the country and should win her third G1 (making her the first horse of the season to win 3 G1’s). The field is talented, but It’s Tricky will just grind you down, she is tough, real grit and she is on a roll. The only threat is Inglorious from Woodbine, but down the stretch It’s Tricky just takes them out. So the races are: Del Mar Oaks G1 $250K 3YO 1 1/8 turf on Saturday and for Sunday, we are going North to Woodbine for the Sky Classic G2 $250K 3YO+ 1 ¼ turf.
Lastly, am still surviving the Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park, in fact, I need to handicap three races tonight for Friday. I lost one of two life preservers last week due to sloppy handicapping. Since the goal now is to survive to the end, the risk factor has risen so will require tighter handicapping on my part.
See you all tomorrow over at HANA with the Del Mar Oaks analysis.
Last night was my first Pick 4 on harness racing, and like I said a total rookie. So here are the results. Race #7 my first choice won, Rejoiceandbeglad. He went off as the favorite and returned $5.40 on a $2 win ticket, not too bad and first race covered. Race #8 is next and Onebrewfortheroad won as the favorite and paid $4.60. She was my second choice behind Toshie Special who finished 2nd. Now two races covered and the dreaded single next in R#9. I took a chance on Cam’s Magic MaeMae, not on her past performances but her being in the 8 spot. As I understand it, the more outside a Pacer is the tougher to win. She went off at the third favorite and finished last. Cole Blue a 12-1 went wire to wire and won by 5+ lengths and killing my Pick 4. Now, as a good handicapper, I went back to see what did I miss? Right now I can’t see any glaring stat that would have put her in any grouping little lone a single. The only thing is two back she raced well at Maywood coming out of the #1 slot where she started last night. Chalk it up to it was her night. So on to R#10. Just because we are knocked out we still have to see how we did anyway, right? The #5 CoCoChino that I had in my group won going off at 11-1!! She paid $25.60 to win. So we snagged 3 of 4 the first time out. Not bad, but no chicken dinner. The pool was $18,893 and it paid $1279.00.
Now the race selections for this weekend Handicap Weekend with HANA. I will say it now, not the Alabama. Why? I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan, she is going to win. There that race is done. Seriously, I think she is the best filly in the country and should win her third G1 (making her the first horse of the season to win 3 G1’s). The field is talented, but It’s Tricky will just grind you down, she is tough, real grit and she is on a roll. The only threat is Inglorious from Woodbine, but down the stretch It’s Tricky just takes them out. So the races are: Del Mar Oaks G1 $250K 3YO 1 1/8 turf on Saturday and for Sunday, we are going North to Woodbine for the Sky Classic G2 $250K 3YO+ 1 ¼ turf.
Lastly, am still surviving the Survival At The Shore contest at Monmouth Park, in fact, I need to handicap three races tonight for Friday. I lost one of two life preservers last week due to sloppy handicapping. Since the goal now is to survive to the end, the risk factor has risen so will require tighter handicapping on my part.
See you all tomorrow over at HANA with the Del Mar Oaks analysis.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Bench Points a Real Good Deal?
At Del Mar, late this afternoon is the Real Good Deal Stakes race going 7 furlongs. The purse is for $100K and there is a real nice 3YO gelding in the field. With only 8 races under his belt, Bench Points has shown that he will be one of the top sprinters on the West Coast. Right now he is solid G3 sprinter winning the Laz Barrera Memorial (G3) at Hollywood Park by a nose and posting an impressive 96 Beyer. After that his connections ran him in the G1 Triple Bend and Smiling Tiger was a power house that day. Again, Bench Points posted a respectable Beyer of 95. So out of 8 races he has won 5, the two loses were at the G1 level and the other was the G2 San Felipe were he ran a distant 3rd. He is one to definitely put into your virtual stable.
For today’s race, I see no reason he will not repeat against this field, he is well rested, good workouts at Del Mar and Bejarano stays in the irons. Unfortunately, a wicked good horse but lousy odds, and one who looks for value and the upset factor. I really had to stretch to find one that might bring a good race at Bench Points. I see only one horse that getting the best trip, not bouncing from last outing, could make trouble and steal this purse. That would be Warren’s Knockout. He has won 3 of 8, including the Grey Memorial Stakes (71K), has posted Beyer’s in the 90’s at this distance. Has raced against some tough horses and held his own, like Prayer For Relief (won WVA Derby G2), Cloud Man and Burns. The issue with Warren’s Knockout is that he is coming back somewhat quickly from his last win and has a tendency to bounce off good efforts. That makes him the classic dark horse.
A lot will depend on the race shape for there is little front end speed in this group. Chiloquin should be the one to take them out, but don’t see enough in him to go wire to wire. The rest will press and not sure if any will take the lead if offered. Bench Points and Warren’s Knockout are both closers, along with Lucky Mr. K 9 (who is dangerous in his own right). If both can stay clear of trouble, and find the lane home it could turn into a fun duel to watch. But in the end, Bench Points should be the Real Good Deal. A win/place wager on Warren’s Knockout at 6-1 or better.
For today’s race, I see no reason he will not repeat against this field, he is well rested, good workouts at Del Mar and Bejarano stays in the irons. Unfortunately, a wicked good horse but lousy odds, and one who looks for value and the upset factor. I really had to stretch to find one that might bring a good race at Bench Points. I see only one horse that getting the best trip, not bouncing from last outing, could make trouble and steal this purse. That would be Warren’s Knockout. He has won 3 of 8, including the Grey Memorial Stakes (71K), has posted Beyer’s in the 90’s at this distance. Has raced against some tough horses and held his own, like Prayer For Relief (won WVA Derby G2), Cloud Man and Burns. The issue with Warren’s Knockout is that he is coming back somewhat quickly from his last win and has a tendency to bounce off good efforts. That makes him the classic dark horse.
A lot will depend on the race shape for there is little front end speed in this group. Chiloquin should be the one to take them out, but don’t see enough in him to go wire to wire. The rest will press and not sure if any will take the lead if offered. Bench Points and Warren’s Knockout are both closers, along with Lucky Mr. K 9 (who is dangerous in his own right). If both can stay clear of trouble, and find the lane home it could turn into a fun duel to watch. But in the end, Bench Points should be the Real Good Deal. A win/place wager on Warren’s Knockout at 6-1 or better.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Creative Cause is our new Best Pal
We all know that Bob Baffert is a great trainer, and has a marvelous stable of 2YO’s. Even though, I believed Brigand would continue to show us another Baffert winner, I was happy for Mike Harrington to bring us a great looking horse in Creative Cause. He is everything his first race showed, and Bejarano set him up perfectly. Well done to the connections and we can expect great things from this 2YO going forward. (The race replay is below). Race analysis at HANA
In looking at the rest of the field, my choice, I’ll Have Another went off at a nice price of 6-1 and raced well. Took the lead and really didn’t relent to the better horse till near the end. I expect we will see big things of him too. The big surprise was Mighty Monsoon (Bombs Away choice). He got off to a terrible start, lagged the field and down the stretch kicked into gear. Not sure if a better start would have helped him in catching Creative Cause, but he was flying at the end. Look for him to show up in routes and grass events.
Brigand and Galex were disappointments. Both pressed early and seemed to vanish on the turn for home and Night Tide showed nothing. I mentioned in the analysis a concern about Night Tide grittiness and he showed again no fire. Not sure how I see him going forward. I do expect to see Brigand come back and do well, thinking this might have been a race regression from last out effort. He’ll be back.
Enjoy the race replay and see you later in the week.
In looking at the rest of the field, my choice, I’ll Have Another went off at a nice price of 6-1 and raced well. Took the lead and really didn’t relent to the better horse till near the end. I expect we will see big things of him too. The big surprise was Mighty Monsoon (Bombs Away choice). He got off to a terrible start, lagged the field and down the stretch kicked into gear. Not sure if a better start would have helped him in catching Creative Cause, but he was flying at the end. Look for him to show up in routes and grass events.
Brigand and Galex were disappointments. Both pressed early and seemed to vanish on the turn for home and Night Tide showed nothing. I mentioned in the analysis a concern about Night Tide grittiness and he showed again no fire. Not sure how I see him going forward. I do expect to see Brigand come back and do well, thinking this might have been a race regression from last out effort. He’ll be back.
Enjoy the race replay and see you later in the week.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Tale of Two Races -7th at DelMar
Before I dive into the 7th race at Del Mar, wanted to share a gimmick angle from Marc Cramer. It is really simple and requires no handicapping. Simply look at the handicapper grid from the DRF and look for the one horse that is selected to win that no other handicapper mentions at all. Today in the 6th at Del Mar, the horse, Memphis qualifies. Hermes selected him to win, the other selectors didn’t not even mention him. Per Marc Cramer be prepared for long losing streaks with this angle but when they hit the mutual’s are large!
One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.
Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.
When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:
1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?
2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.
3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.
That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.
Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.
1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.
2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.
3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.
I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.
One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.
Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.
When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:
1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?
2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.
3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.
That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.
Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.
1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.
2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.
3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.
I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
It was an It's Tricky weekend
The weekend of racing or no racing has passed, and glad to see the sweltering heat leave us behind. For me the race of the weekend was, It’s Tricky winning the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks. She has shown us in two consecutive races that she is one tough horse. In the Acorn, she beat the favorite Turbulent Descent and then Saturday knocked off another highly regarded filly, Plum Pretty. What makes these races exceptional for It’s Tricky, is that her competition had no excuses. They both tackled her down the stretch and she beat them back each time. The Alabama is next, and she has to be taken seriously this time. The Alabama could end up being the race of the year if all the fillies come. Right now the lineup is It’s Tricky, Zazu, St. John’s River, Inglorious, Royal Delta, Plum Pretty and Kinda of Spicy. I would like to see some of the sharp west coast fillies head to Saratoga, but thinking most will stay home. If you missed the CCA Oaks or the Acorn I have them below, and yes I’m a huge It’s Tricky fan.
A quick recap of the Survival At The Shore tournament at Monmouth Park. The track postponed Friday’s card till Monday (yesterday), cancelled Saturday’s card entirely. So there were only two days for the tournament. Sunday finished with one winner, Pinch Pie and on Monday, a second with Pasta Lover and Omega Mine came in third. Then on Sunday I participated in the NHC Summer Challenge, 1300+ participants and a 10 race card. The tracks composed of Woodbine, Saratoga, Monmouth and finished at Del Mar. Good races chosen by the organizers and felt my handicapping was much better than the last BC Qualifier. What you learn if you handicap long enough is how humbling this sport can be. First seven races I was shut out, and sitting like 1200 and something. The only saving grace was that they ranked us zeros alphabetically and saved me further humiliation.
Then Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf, back to one of my home tracks. 6th race Maiden Claiming, my selection Basic Logic goes off at 10-1, the longest play of my entire card. Like my dad said, the “early foot” wins more than their fair and Basic Logic goes wire to wire and brings home a nice $32.40 (Win-Place). Finally, a breakthrough! I knew the leaders would try to ride it through for the three qualify spots, so I expected to move into the top 500. No, my new best friend, Basic Logic shot me to 319 spot, and then looking at the leaders it would take more than one “balloon” to get me there. Two races to go and the next up was the Californian Dreamin Handicap with Tamarack Smarty the favorite. I had Norvsky picked and thought maybe a decent price would get me up the food chain. He did win but got knocked down on the tote a bit too much and ended up with an $8.40 ticket. I moved up to 295th position.
One race to go and sitting at $40.40 with the top three at $70. The last race was the San Clemente, Sarah’s Secret was undefeated and looked ready to take make it five in a row. I liked Mizdirection , but she would be bet down as the second favorite. The only other horse I considered was Up In Time, and it was an instinct play but my over analysis said next time not here. They cap the tournament at 20-1 so odds of me scoring with a bomber were not there. I stayed with Mizdirection and she finished second to …. You know who? Up In Time! Up In Time paid $35.00, which would have given me a $75.40 day, but not enough to qualify (but a top 10). With Mizdirection’s second money of $4.20, I finished the day at $44.60 and 275 out of over 1300. What blew me away is that the top three on the leader board got knocked out on that last race. So congrats to the folks that took Up In Time and copped those precious seats in Las Vegas.
A quick recap of the Survival At The Shore tournament at Monmouth Park. The track postponed Friday’s card till Monday (yesterday), cancelled Saturday’s card entirely. So there were only two days for the tournament. Sunday finished with one winner, Pinch Pie and on Monday, a second with Pasta Lover and Omega Mine came in third. Then on Sunday I participated in the NHC Summer Challenge, 1300+ participants and a 10 race card. The tracks composed of Woodbine, Saratoga, Monmouth and finished at Del Mar. Good races chosen by the organizers and felt my handicapping was much better than the last BC Qualifier. What you learn if you handicap long enough is how humbling this sport can be. First seven races I was shut out, and sitting like 1200 and something. The only saving grace was that they ranked us zeros alphabetically and saved me further humiliation.
Then Del Mar, where the turf meets the surf, back to one of my home tracks. 6th race Maiden Claiming, my selection Basic Logic goes off at 10-1, the longest play of my entire card. Like my dad said, the “early foot” wins more than their fair and Basic Logic goes wire to wire and brings home a nice $32.40 (Win-Place). Finally, a breakthrough! I knew the leaders would try to ride it through for the three qualify spots, so I expected to move into the top 500. No, my new best friend, Basic Logic shot me to 319 spot, and then looking at the leaders it would take more than one “balloon” to get me there. Two races to go and the next up was the Californian Dreamin Handicap with Tamarack Smarty the favorite. I had Norvsky picked and thought maybe a decent price would get me up the food chain. He did win but got knocked down on the tote a bit too much and ended up with an $8.40 ticket. I moved up to 295th position.
One race to go and sitting at $40.40 with the top three at $70. The last race was the San Clemente, Sarah’s Secret was undefeated and looked ready to take make it five in a row. I liked Mizdirection , but she would be bet down as the second favorite. The only other horse I considered was Up In Time, and it was an instinct play but my over analysis said next time not here. They cap the tournament at 20-1 so odds of me scoring with a bomber were not there. I stayed with Mizdirection and she finished second to …. You know who? Up In Time! Up In Time paid $35.00, which would have given me a $75.40 day, but not enough to qualify (but a top 10). With Mizdirection’s second money of $4.20, I finished the day at $44.60 and 275 out of over 1300. What blew me away is that the top three on the leader board got knocked out on that last race. So congrats to the folks that took Up In Time and copped those precious seats in Las Vegas.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Sarah Secret 5 in a row?
8th race at Del Mar, 43rd running of the San Clemente Handicap (G2) over a mile on grass.
What isn't there to like about #5 Sarah Secret. 4 for 4, cutting back in distance, front runner that wired her last race, the Honeymoon (G2) at a mile and sixteenth. David Flores is back in the irons and two consecutive bullet workouts. From a fan perspective, I would like to see her win and then ship back to Saratoga, and enter the Alabama. What a match up, with Zazu, St. John's River, Inglorious and Its Tricky.
Now that I have touted her to be one of the best, is she vulnerable? Well, yes. She is a 3 year old and sometimes you never know what can go wrong. Yes, she is the speed in the race and will get clear of this large field. Interesting is that in the Honeymoon she did not run away from the field and right in the pack at the line was #1 Up In Time (GB) beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Bejarano (who rode Sarah Secret in the Honeymoon now rides her). This will be her 5th start in the states and she is rounding into form. The other filly that pressed Sarah Secret last out was #4 Bonita Star (GB), she finished 6th and 3 3/4 out. This will be Bonita Star(GB), 5th start, as well, not quite showing the speed or form as Up In Time, but you have to wonder could either one or both be coming into their own?
For me, when looking for the upset, I fall to #9 Mizdirection. A Mike Puype lightly race three year old. Last out finished 2nd in the Manhattan Beach stakes. What intrigues me with her, is the Manhattan Beach was her first race after breaking her maiden, she raced forwardly, got bumped at the sixteenth and did'nt pack it in. In fact, there is a little "come and go" set up here, she ran evenly at 1 1/2 off the pace, dropped to 3 back and rallied to finish off by 1 1/2. Her speed figures are there with Sarah Secret, breeding is solid, Puype is 21% on the sprint to route angle (her breeding says the distance is no problem), and a nice workout over the Del Mar turf. Lastly, Garrett Gomez is riding and he has been hot of late.
Will take Mizdirection to upset but will be just as happy if Sarah Secret takes her 5th in a row.
What isn't there to like about #5 Sarah Secret. 4 for 4, cutting back in distance, front runner that wired her last race, the Honeymoon (G2) at a mile and sixteenth. David Flores is back in the irons and two consecutive bullet workouts. From a fan perspective, I would like to see her win and then ship back to Saratoga, and enter the Alabama. What a match up, with Zazu, St. John's River, Inglorious and Its Tricky.
Now that I have touted her to be one of the best, is she vulnerable? Well, yes. She is a 3 year old and sometimes you never know what can go wrong. Yes, she is the speed in the race and will get clear of this large field. Interesting is that in the Honeymoon she did not run away from the field and right in the pack at the line was #1 Up In Time (GB) beaten by 1 1/4 lengths. Bejarano (who rode Sarah Secret in the Honeymoon now rides her). This will be her 5th start in the states and she is rounding into form. The other filly that pressed Sarah Secret last out was #4 Bonita Star (GB), she finished 6th and 3 3/4 out. This will be Bonita Star(GB), 5th start, as well, not quite showing the speed or form as Up In Time, but you have to wonder could either one or both be coming into their own?
For me, when looking for the upset, I fall to #9 Mizdirection. A Mike Puype lightly race three year old. Last out finished 2nd in the Manhattan Beach stakes. What intrigues me with her, is the Manhattan Beach was her first race after breaking her maiden, she raced forwardly, got bumped at the sixteenth and did'nt pack it in. In fact, there is a little "come and go" set up here, she ran evenly at 1 1/2 off the pace, dropped to 3 back and rallied to finish off by 1 1/2. Her speed figures are there with Sarah Secret, breeding is solid, Puype is 21% on the sprint to route angle (her breeding says the distance is no problem), and a nice workout over the Del Mar turf. Lastly, Garrett Gomez is riding and he has been hot of late.
Will take Mizdirection to upset but will be just as happy if Sarah Secret takes her 5th in a row.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
A powerful source for winners ... those early years
Monmouth Park closed for the second day due to extreme heat and humidity, that put’s the Survival At The Shore tournament on hold. That gave me some time to catch up on reading and other turf blogs. I tweeted about Dean Arnold’s TVG blog about 2 y/o’s at Saratoga coming out of the one hole. It was insightful and gave some excellent tips on how to play them. I also enjoyed Todd Schrupp’s write up on his childhood experiences at Del Mar. When I finished it, I started to think back on my first exposure to horse racing. For me it wasn’t going to the track, even though my parents were handicapping nomads on the SoCal circuit.
It was evenings sitting with my dad in his ’58 Nomad listening to race re-creations. I can still see and hear it. After dinner, dad would grab me and tell my mother, who was cleaning the kitchen, that we had an errand to run. We would go out into his gun metal gray Nomad, doors open , and turn on the radio. He would sit there with his folded up Herald Examiner, figures and notes written all over it. What captured me totally was not my dad winning or losing, it was that golden voice of JR Richards of Horse and Jockey. Today, I can still here his deep voice calling out the shows tag line, “Horse and Jockey a powerful source for winners.”
I would sit there staring at the radio, listening to every race replay, I was so enthralled with it I barely heard my dad bitch and moan about some nag still running up the track. What I did learn from my dad in those days, was that speed wins more than their fair share, he was a total speed ball handicapper. Secondly, I learned the phrase, “horses for courses”. He had Pomona nailed down (now Fairplex), it was a bull ring, so when horses came in from Del Mar or Hollywood and show lousy form, he would pull out his notebook and if the horse showed hitting the board at the ’ring, he’d bet them. He would laugh and say, “horses for courses” and grin like a mad hatter.
So for me it wasn’t the train to Del Mar, the opening of the season at Oak Tree or the afternoons at Hollywood Park, it was those early evenings sitting with dad, in his station wagon on the driveway, feeling the ocean breeze, hearing JR Richards bring home another day of races.
Thanks dad, for those wonderful memories and a lifetime of winners!
It was evenings sitting with my dad in his ’58 Nomad listening to race re-creations. I can still see and hear it. After dinner, dad would grab me and tell my mother, who was cleaning the kitchen, that we had an errand to run. We would go out into his gun metal gray Nomad, doors open , and turn on the radio. He would sit there with his folded up Herald Examiner, figures and notes written all over it. What captured me totally was not my dad winning or losing, it was that golden voice of JR Richards of Horse and Jockey. Today, I can still here his deep voice calling out the shows tag line, “Horse and Jockey a powerful source for winners.”
I would sit there staring at the radio, listening to every race replay, I was so enthralled with it I barely heard my dad bitch and moan about some nag still running up the track. What I did learn from my dad in those days, was that speed wins more than their fair share, he was a total speed ball handicapper. Secondly, I learned the phrase, “horses for courses”. He had Pomona nailed down (now Fairplex), it was a bull ring, so when horses came in from Del Mar or Hollywood and show lousy form, he would pull out his notebook and if the horse showed hitting the board at the ’ring, he’d bet them. He would laugh and say, “horses for courses” and grin like a mad hatter.
So for me it wasn’t the train to Del Mar, the opening of the season at Oak Tree or the afternoons at Hollywood Park, it was those early evenings sitting with dad, in his station wagon on the driveway, feeling the ocean breeze, hearing JR Richards bring home another day of races.
Thanks dad, for those wonderful memories and a lifetime of winners!
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Opening Day @ Del Mar Oceanside 100K
Today we have a fun race on opening day at Del Mar. 8th race, one mile on Turf, the Oceanside $100K. 3 y/o non winners of a sweepstakes of $50,000.
Right off the bat, the favorite will be John Shirreffs, Mr. Commons. He is returning from a 60 day layoff after running 8th in the Preakness. He did have a solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), being the show horse. He has only raced once on turf, a 6.5f affair in January and ran a with it by 5.5 lengths, hitting a 92 Beyer. Breeding suggests that he should be solid on grass and Mike Smith is back in the irons. I guess what makes me believe he is vulnerable is that he hasn’t raced a mile or longer on turf. Winning routes on dirt is one thing, but now moving back to grass and in a route, I’m not sold and especially at a short price. There are others that could threaten, and while their forms are not conclusive you could make a strong case for Burns, Extensive and reaching out there maybe Moment of Weakness(IRE).
In that vein, the one that has captured my interest is Temple Door. It’s had three races, winning two and a third. Speed is in the 80’s and rates just of the front runners. Even though this contest doesn’t exhibit much front speed, he could end up taking off. He has won at this distance and longer, good works and is trained by Carla Gaines who has a good record with stake turf horses. Add Chantal Sutherland on board and could be an interesting play. Morning line is a handsome 6-1 and anything close would play it.
I've had a tough run in the stakes races of late, so let's see if Temple Door can break it open for me and get back on track in the States.
Right off the bat, the favorite will be John Shirreffs, Mr. Commons. He is returning from a 60 day layoff after running 8th in the Preakness. He did have a solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), being the show horse. He has only raced once on turf, a 6.5f affair in January and ran a with it by 5.5 lengths, hitting a 92 Beyer. Breeding suggests that he should be solid on grass and Mike Smith is back in the irons. I guess what makes me believe he is vulnerable is that he hasn’t raced a mile or longer on turf. Winning routes on dirt is one thing, but now moving back to grass and in a route, I’m not sold and especially at a short price. There are others that could threaten, and while their forms are not conclusive you could make a strong case for Burns, Extensive and reaching out there maybe Moment of Weakness(IRE).
In that vein, the one that has captured my interest is Temple Door. It’s had three races, winning two and a third. Speed is in the 80’s and rates just of the front runners. Even though this contest doesn’t exhibit much front speed, he could end up taking off. He has won at this distance and longer, good works and is trained by Carla Gaines who has a good record with stake turf horses. Add Chantal Sutherland on board and could be an interesting play. Morning line is a handsome 6-1 and anything close would play it.
I've had a tough run in the stakes races of late, so let's see if Temple Door can break it open for me and get back on track in the States.
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