Tale of Two Races -7th at DelMar

Before I dive into the 7th race at Del Mar, wanted to share a gimmick angle from Marc Cramer. It is really simple and requires no handicapping. Simply look at the handicapper grid from the DRF and look for the one horse that is selected to win that no other handicapper mentions at all. Today in the 6th at Del Mar, the horse, Memphis qualifies. Hermes selected him to win, the other selectors didn’t not even mention him. Per Marc Cramer be prepared for long losing streaks with this angle but when they hit the mutual’s are large!

One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.

Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.

When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:

1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?

2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.

3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.

That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.

Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.

1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.

2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.

3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.

I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.

Sunday in Curragh, a needed change of pace

After the debacle I suffered in the Breeders Cup Qualifier on Saturday. Barely staying alive in the Survivor At The Shore at Monmouth, Friday and Saturday. I decided Sunday would be international day.

If you read my international pick of the day for Sunday at Hollywood Park, Ashtar, you will see I had the right continent but the wrong country. Ashtar came from Chile and looked sharp for half the race, then folded up and came in last. It was all “hunch” and should have gone with the Brazlian, Imponente Purse, the second choice at 5/2. The eventual winner.

But before all that happened, I jumped over to Ireland and played four races. I will admit it was more luck than handicapping for their forms and past performances are quite different. All in all, I picked 3 of 4 and all paid nice prices. It started off with the Irish Oaks, and went with Blue Bunting. I will spare you my written details and let you just enjoy the race.



Then onto the Survivor tourney at Monmouth, there things recovered nicely and had two winners and a second. With five weeks to go, denting the leader board is unlikely so now it is like running a marathon; just finish it without getting knocked out.

For this week, I have had two nice scores: yesterday at Parx in the 8th race. It was on turf for 5f, Optional Claimers 25K/2nl. These are difficult races for me to handicap, for the field is wide open and can make a good case for two or three. I went with Bounding Bi for three reasons, she raced on turf twice and speed figures really jumped up 84 and 82, won last out on grass placed second back in September. The deal sealer was she had a win and place at Parx. So went with the “horses for courses” angle, good grass speed and recent winner. She paid $7.60 to win.

Today, in the 8th race at Delaware Park, Maiden Claimers $30000 going 7.5f on grass. Like most of these types of races, one or two look like they are ready, but in reality, who knows, throw a dart. The favorite, and deservedly sot was President Eaton. Lightly raced 3 y/o, finished third on turf going a mile and 70. Good jockey and trainer connection, best speed of the group at 66, good workouts, and cutting back in distance, was on the lead at this distance. Then I reminded myself, maiden claimers are like women, they can look damn pretty and still break your heart, so went I digging.

I came up with a 3 y/o gelding named Circus. I will admit this was a stretch play. Good jockey in Rose, decent trainer, and used the key race angle liberally. What did catch my eye, was that it looked like the previous trainer was trying to figure out how to run him. The past performances looked jumbled and the last three races were on off courses. He did show flash of speed in two, and all previous races were at a mile. The pp’s showed him up close at the first and second call so used the cutting back in distance idea, throw in good works, and said at 5/1 m/l why not? The new trainer, Triola, has a good record with first timers under his tutelage and turf record. Circus hit the board for a $9.60!

So it proves that when you think things can’t get any worse, a change of venue can make a huge difference. Luck of the Blarney, maybe, but will take it every time.