In researching the analysis for the Arlington Million (posted at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ ), I had read an article on BrisNet, that made the comment about second level European horses coming to the USA and taking down major stakes races. Using Cape Blanco in the ManoWar as an example. That reminded me of the Night School class on Handicapping European Horses. (Night School is at http://www.horseplayernow.com/ and if you miss the Monday class the replays are available) Since imports are part of our horse racing landscape, I would like to share some ideas from Night School in handicapping those imports. The highlights are as follows:
1. Many of the European horses that come to the States are trying to avoid softer course footing, and are looking to run on firm ground. A horse that has been failing overseas when running over this bogged-down turf are candidates for improvement when getting on fast going.
2. Pay close attention to the Euros in their morning work in the days leading up to the race ... are they galloping strongly prior to that scheduled race. A good source for that is http://www.gradeoneracing.com/
3. Europeans train and race daily on softer course conditions; any horse with European pedigree or experience should have an edge on the Americans on softer footing.
4. Euro Bounce: Many theorize that European imports run best right off the plane, but can regress in performance if they remain in the States and acclimate fully to the new training schedules, time zones, etc. This is one reason why I picked Gio Ponti over Cape Blanco in the Million.
The class has other great information, so if this is an area that you wish to focus your handicapping or just improve overall, then check out Night School.
On a different topic, I just finished reading T.D. Thornton's book "Not By A Longshot". It is a look into the 2000 racing season at Suffolk Downs (mid level track in the Boston area). Mr. Thornton brings to the horse racing fan a rare look at the people and activities on the backstretch, exposure to the politics that horse racing deals with and the characters of our great sport. He weaved all aspects mentioned through the entire book and some might bring tears to your eyes. It is a good read, and one for your bookcase.
I will be handicapping for tomorrow at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/ so take a look and appreciate all your input. Have a great day and cash those tickets!
