Friday, April 27, 2012

Play of the Day: 5th Race at Calder 4/27/2012

In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We  also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose.  Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.

There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1.  He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start.  His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it.  He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed.  Adding Jara only helps the cause.

The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park.  He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more.  Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today.  Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board.  In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F.  The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.

The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1.  This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race.  First off we get a stretch out and surface change.  Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers.  In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today.  Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will.  He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.

Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!