Yesterday, I dropped in a price play in the 1st Race at Gulstream, Wildcat Sierra. The morning line was 12/1 and she went off at 10/1, since she went off less than the morning line, there would have been no play. The key to the price play is that the odds have to be at or higher than the morning line, or the horse becomes an over bet.
Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise, it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs. It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult. The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach. Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers. The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group? I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.
