Play of the Day: 6st Race @ Turf Paradise 04/02/2012

We hit a nice one yesterday with Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap at the Fair Grounds. He went off at 10/1 and paid $20.60.  Since I blogged that pick over at horseplayersassociation.org I don't count it as part of this blog, but still an nice pick. Coupled with Hit It Rich winning the Orchid on Saturday, it was a real good weekend.

Now back to reality, today we are catching some rays down at Turf Paradise. This is an interesting condition. Maiden Optional Claiming ($30,000) going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass for 3YO and upwards. There are two possibles here, but the challenge is do we get the value we need? Last week we didn't get too much action, and I fear in this race we might get shut out, but let's take a shot.

#5  Southern Sculptor ML 5/1

The angle here is shipping in from Santa Anita, with three consecutive hammerings in his 4YO season.  Jeff Metz takes over as trainer, were he scores 16% on 1st timers, not a bad stat. A jockey switch and cut back in distance.  His running style says this won't help, but Metz may throw a curve and have Medina take him out. His second and third back showed a bit of speed and toss in two decent works he might be ready to fire.  To get any value here he would have to float up to 9/1, otherwise I would move to the next one.

#6 Pharo's Gold ML 6/1

This will be the fourth start for this 5YO colt. This will be his second try under Whitehouse's tutelage, and Wilton's record is zero for 14.  What I do like is that Whitehouse is razor sharp with dirt to turf and turf races.  The angle here is that he improved in his last, gets a bit more distance that might help and the Whitehouse/Lopez connection hits 29% of the time for  $4.05 ROI.  If the tote takes him to 9/1 or better I would play him over the #5.

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012

So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way.  Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race.  It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile.  At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it.  I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better.  The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.

The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.

This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all.  The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.

If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?  

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/17/12

Going to change how I recap the week. To get a better gauge how we are doing, I will list each race and the money won or lost.

Monday:    Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.

Tuesday:   Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.  

Wednesday:  Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.

Thursday:  Sportswriter at Aqueduct.  No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).

Friday:  Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.  

Bet: $26  Cashed: $56.40  Profit: $30.40

Play of the Day: 1st Race @ Turf Paradise

Yesterday, I dropped in a price play in the 1st Race at Gulstream, Wildcat Sierra.  The morning line was 12/1 and she went off at 10/1, since she went off less than the morning line, there would have been no play.  The key to the price play is that the odds have to be at or higher than the morning line, or the horse becomes an over bet.

Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise,  it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs.   It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult.  The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach.  Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers.  The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group?  I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.

Price Play @Turf Paradise for 3/5/12

Today we take a look at the 8th race at Turf Paradise, it's an Allowance race for $13,000NW2L going seven and a half furlongs over turf. There is a field of 10 entered and it's a real mixed bag as you would expect. The one I like in this race is the #6 Bell Blitz with a morning line of 10/1.

The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.

We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!

Record

Starts 4

Wins 1

Place 0

Show 1