Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012

There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday.  Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change.  Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!

Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course.  There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning.  Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.

The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5.  She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December.  Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today.  So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.

Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1.  The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP.  The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride.  She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart?  The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim.  He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play.  Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.

On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable.  She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race.  You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow.  Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off.  She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.

From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1.  She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race.  I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.




   

Play of the Day:7th Race @ Aqueduct 4/11/2012

Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20.  The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely.  You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20.  Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.

Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile.  The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).

There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle.  Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.

He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga.  His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off.  His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form.  He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today.  The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now.  5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 4/7/2012

Yesterday in the Transylvania none of my selections did anything.  Silver Max gunned out and never looked back, I lay that race on the other jockey's underestimating Silver Max.  It looked like they all thought the speed was going to come back to them and when it didn't they were done.  We got the odds we wanted, and I would have played $6 to win on State of Play and $2 place/$4 show on Wayward Sailor. The result was a bust out.  So where does that leave us for the week?

Monday: Pharo's Gold got up for show and returned a net profit of $13.80
Tuesday: No play
Wednesday:  No play
Thursday: No play
Friday: out $12

That leaves us a net profit of a $1.80 for a cumulative total net profit of $73.80.  Today I blogged over at http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/  on the Bayshore (G3) at Aqueduct.  Later this afternoon, I will post here a Saturday Night Special.

Have a great Holiday everyone!

Play of the Day: Ist Race @ Aqueduct 4/4/2012

Last night at Mountaineer, our choice Holiday Dreaming got up for a show finish, but she went the wrong way on the tote board. Morning line of 8/1 and out of the gate at 6/1. There was no value at 6/1 so there would be no play . Today, we go to Aqueduct to play one of my horses from my virtual stable.

It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th.  The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.

#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1

She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2.  Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability.  Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia,  let her gallop around and wait for another day.    I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations.  Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board.  Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.

Pick of the Day: 8th @Aqueduct 03/21/12

We had a nice score yesterday at Parx, with Schist winning, paying $20.00! and we got our 9/1 so a stack bet would have been played. A $12.00 investment would have returned, $43.60, giving us a profit of $31.60. So far this week, we have a place and a win, not too bad of a start.  Today, we go to Aqueduct and look at the Lynclar Stakes ($75K) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going 6 Furlongs.  There are several good horses in this field, and I like the #5 Strike the Moon ML 5/1, if  we could get better than 5/1 I might be inclined to play her. I'm sure the tote will not give us any value on her, so I looked outside for anyone to upset the top contenders.

The one that fits the bill is #6 Isn't She Grand ML 10/1

She is one tough 5YO with two wins in her last three on the inner track at Aqueduct.  Her speed is comparable to these, even though she does get wonky at times.  She has some decent efforts at this level, and has won two in a row at the starter level. I like horses that are sharp and moving back up a notch. Rudy Rodriguez  has a solid record with horses winning their last outings, and I do like that Velasquez is still in the irons.  She will hustle to the front, and has a way of winning. If the tote floats over 10/1 it would be an interesting proposition, any thing less no play.  

Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 03/15/12

 I tried to embed this weeks Trips and Traps and it doesn't work. You can go to You Tube and put in the search box: Trips and Traps - 03/15/2012. See you all tomorrow.

Weekly Recap for the Clocker 3/17/12

Going to change how I recap the week. To get a better gauge how we are doing, I will list each race and the money won or lost.

Monday:    Hay Gear at Turf Paradise, no play odds dropped under the minimum.

Tuesday:   Omara Devil at Charles Town, finished second at 14-1. Stack bet ($2 win, $4 place, $6 show), pay off $25.80 with a profit of: $13.80.  

Wednesday:  Precision Farming at Gulfstream. $2 bet and no finish. $0 profit.

Thursday:  Sportswriter at Aqueduct.  No play odds dropped. (Sportswriter won as chalk).

Friday:  Pharme Legend at Fair Grounds, finished third at 22-1. Stack bet, pay off $30.60 with a profit of: $18.60.  

Bet: $26  Cashed: $56.40  Profit: $30.40

Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct 3/15/12

We got the price on Precision Farming at Gulfstream yesterday, 15/1, sadly we didn't get the result.  I'm not sure how I would have played it, she had shown issues in the past, and felt lukewarm all the way around, maybe one unit to win and let it go at that.  Today is Thursday, so it must be Aqueduct! It feels like every Thursday the DRF tosses us a race from there and today is no exception.

It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc.  I will refrain writing out the conditions today.  It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough.  There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.

If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2.  This is a straight angle play.  He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot).  There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow.  There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.  

Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 03/08/12

If you haven't seen the March 8th edition of Trips and Traps with Andy Serling and Eric Donovan here it is:

Trips and Traps for Aqueduct 2/24/12

I wanted to share this feature from Andy Serling and Eric Donovan in New York. If you like to play the New York race scene then you need to catch his show called, Trips and Traps. It's on You Tube and I will make an effort to upload them as they become available. This one is dated, February 24th, enjoy the show:

Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct

Our selection at Will Rogers Downs went off at too low of a price to even consider playing him. Looking at the results, you could have put $2 to win/place on all of them and had a huge score. Today, we go back to Aqueduct, to play the 7th race, it is an Optional Claiming event for $75K/N1X going a mile and 70 yards over the inner track, for 3YO's. It's a good field, and another wide open affair. I like two entries and price will dictate the direction I go.

#4 Street Life ML 6/1

He shipped in from GP and won at first asking here at Aqueduct going this distance. Big improvement to his Beyer's (70), and looks ready to move through his conditions. In his last outing, it wasn't an easy trip, Alvarado had to guide him through traffic and he galloped away. The other big plus is Chad Brown, he is having a solid meet so far, and his record with returning winners is superior, 29%! If we can get a square price (meaning better than 4/1), he is the play.

If the #4 is not playable, the I would go with #6 A Boy Named Em ML 8/1. He is shipping in after a couple tepid efforts at GP. It looks like this angle of shipping in from GP is working at Aqueduct. You'll notice there are a couple other entrants that have shipped an won here. There are several angles to play with him: first blinkers on (equipment change), jockey switch to Castro, consistent speed and should see an improvement on the inner track. His last outing outing was a troubled trip by being squeezed at the start. Lastly, Kenneally is having a good meet too, especially with horses coming off a layoff (25% win rate).

I like both of these, and will let the tote board dictate the play.

Record:

Races: 6

Wins: 1

Place: 0

Show: 2

7th @Aqueduct 2/29/12

So much for looking a bit too far back on Carnivore. I was surprised that Hernandez took him to the front going wide to get there, especially from the outside. I admit I would have played him at 4/1 but not a great effort. So today as punishment we will play the 7th at Aqueduct. It's a maiden special weight($55K) for 3YO+ fillies racing a mile.

Out of the field of 10 we have two career maidens and two first time starters, which I'll pass on. The one I like will be the favorite so I tossed in a horse that can get a price and has the ability to surprise.

Pick:

#1a Bent On Glory ML 2/1

This Linda Rice 3YO is making her third start after a show finish here at Aqueduct on the inner track going a mile and 70. That race was a big improvement over her first start, the place horse went on to win with a 60 Beyer (key race angle), and she gets a four pound weight break. Linda Rice isn't known as a maiden killer but this filly looks like she is trending in the right direction. The cut back in distance suits her, unfortunately for us the odds don't.

Price Play:

#4 Elusive Rumour ML 6/1

Like the #1a this filly is making her third start, sadly the second effort was a dud. I'm going to toss it as a troubled trip and go with the solid breeding and Albertrani. He has a decent record with maidens, he is putting Alvarado back on and we have the good old sprint to route play. Her workouts have been a bit better than in January, she is off the inside (tough on the inner track) and is stretching out. Madiens are tough no matter what, and I see no reason she doesn't bounce back and win it.