Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012

There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday.  Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change.  Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!

Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course.  There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning.  Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.

The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5.  She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December.  Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today.  So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.

Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1.  The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP.  The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride.  She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart?  The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim.  He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play.  Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.

On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable.  She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race.  You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow.  Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off.  She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.

From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1.  She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race.  I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.




   

BC ignores Belmont and NJ cuts Monmouth/Meadowlands dates

I normally don't use this blog for the political mess that horse racing gets drawn into. I leave that to the good people at HANA and others that are far more in the know than me.

In that vain, I have linked two articles for your reading. One by Steve Crist regarding the BC decision to by pass Belmont. The next one is the new law signed by the NJ Governor reducing the racing dates at Monmouth Park and Meadowlands for next season. He also took away the casino subsidy for both tracks but is still against having slots at thetracks. Reads like the casino operators have Christie in their pockets. Racing Law

Look forward to your comments and will be posting the analysis for tomorrows Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar later today at the HANA blog site.