On Friday at Calder our selection Goldsome went off at 48/1 and gave us a show finish. Due to him going off over 10/1 the bet would have been stacked at $2 win/$4 place/$6 show. His show finish gave us a $10.60 payout for a $31.80 return (net profit $19.80). Tonight we go to Charles Town for the 8th race, an Allowance race for 3YO's that are non winners of three. They will racing for $27,000 going seven furlongs over the dirt and two turns.
It's a speedy field and the stick out for me is the #1 Ravens Terms. His morning line is 4/1 and after looking at the lineup I think he should be more like 5/2 and the favorite. He has won two in a row at 61/2F here at Charles Town including this class level. He has improved his speed in each race and will get out in front which makes him a huge threat. He has posted a bullet workout on the 14th, Tim Grams does an excellent job with allowance sprinters. There is other speed in here so he isn't a lock, on the outside I like #4 Ok Listen Up ML 8/1. He has done well at the class level winning two back at 61/2F posting a competitive Beyer. The next out was on a sloppy track so we can toss it. You have to respect Crystal Pickett horses especially coming back so fast. The other factors that are of interest is that he won here at this distance and gets Dunkelberger today who is on fire at Charles Town. There is plenty of speed to set him up for a late charge, but not sure he can catch the #1 Ravens Terms.
Now the challenge is we need #1 Ravens Terms go off better than 3/1 for us to play him. If he gets bet down to an underlay and #4 Ok Listen Up goes off over 8/1 then play #4. Finally, I wouldn't be surprised to see #2 Bomber ML 6/1 coming back to win at this level. He won his maiden at this track going 7F, he could swing right back and nail this one too, again it's the odds. A morning line at 6/1 is way too high, I have him at 7/2. So if you want to play it tight, and if #1 is out, then #2 Bomber would be an excellent choice over 7/2.
Showing posts with label Allowance Races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Allowance Races. Show all posts
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Saturday Night Special: 6th Race Penn National 4/21/12
At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira, our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20. This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20! So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National. It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.
I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1. This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime. He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two. Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76. We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs. He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts. Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready. There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them. If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward. No matter is should be an interesting race.
I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1. This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime. He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two. Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76. We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs. He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts. Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready. There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them. If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward. No matter is should be an interesting race.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Play of the day: 5th at Aqueduct 4/20/2012
There were no surprises in Dayatthespa running off wire to wire in the Appalachian yesterday. Now if you weren't greedy and played the whole $12 on her you got a nice return of $25.20. However, if you followed my idea and split the bet and put $6 on Firehouse Red to show, well our return was pocket change. Regardless, we had a winner at our price of 6/5 and anytime you can double your money with a favorite it's a good thing!
Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning. Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.
The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5. She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December. Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today. So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.
Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1. The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP. The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride. She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart? The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim. He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play. Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.
On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable. She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race. You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow. Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off. She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.
From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1. She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race. I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.
Today, we will wrap up the week at Aqueduct playing the 5th Race. It's an Allowance for state breds. $57,000N1X for fillies and mares 3YO+ going a mile and sixteenth over the turf course. There are nine entered and there were no scratches when I checked this morning. Yesterday, we had one clear favorite, today we have two and a couple of outsiders.
The morning line favorite is #3 Wholelottashakin at 2/1, and I have her at 9/5. She has had only five races with a maiden win on grass going six furlongs at Belmont. Since then she has been really uneven, with one solid effort in the SweetChant($100K) at Gulfstream back in December. Some would regard her the class of the field because she is in a state bred race today. So if you take the class advantage, a jockey switch to Lezcano and Tom Bush doing well in turf races, this 3YO filly could get it done. She should press to the front which will help her since there is little other speed.
Next is #7 Shakeira ML 5/2 and she looks better at 2/1. The one thing we do know is she has won at this distance over grass, albeit it was her maiden race last season at GP. The worry about her is since then she has fallen into the bridesmaid category and never the bride. She has the ability and stalking style to win this race but does she have the heart? The angle her is evident, Chad Brown recent claim. He doesn't do it often and his success on grass (25%), routes (27%) and Allowance races (24%) coupled with Castellano being in the irons makes her an excellent play. Anything above 2/1 would make her the play of the day.
On the outside we have #9 Inimitable Romanee ML 3/1 and that would be reasonable. She perked up in her second start in the States and finished fifth but she appeared to be more involved in that race. You can't ignore Graham Motion and John Velazquez on turf, but my concern with her is that she has a tendency to break slow. Her running style being a closer and shortening the distance doesn't help and I feel there is just enough speed in this race to hold her off. She has the talent and if the #3 and #7 falter she could do it, but will take a big effort.
From a longshot play, I like the #5 Viv's Tiara ML 12/1. She has two wins on grass, the last one was her most recent race here at Aqueduct going a mile in a $25K claiming race. I think the angle with her is she showed improved form and she can get out on the lead if she wants to. With little speed here she might get up there and surprise the co-favorites. She is back with Ubillo and he puts Castro on her for today, might help. If anything she should be there for some of the action.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Play of the Day: 4th at Penn National 4/18/2012
We got our price on Catch the Bean in the 12th at Sunland Park yesterday, he went off at 6/1 and and our minimum was at least 5/1. He was fourth favorite and he finished third paying $3.00 for show. I would have played him down the line, $2 win, $4 place and $6 to show, $12 invested and $9 returned for a - $3 return. That puts us down $15 for the week. Today, we will do some night racing at Penn National and it is one highly contentious race. It's the 4th race on the card, an Allowance $36,000N1X for 3YO's. The field of nine will be going a mile on dirt, there are five contenders, two outsiders in this one. I like two, one to win and another as a long shot interest.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
First up is the #6 Window Boy ML 3/1. Won his maiden at second asking at Parx then they stretched him out into routes. Two good performances at Parx in Allowance N1X company, posting good Beyer's and he looked like he was on his way. He debuts as a 3YO down a GP in Optional Claiming company and gets beaten badly. One race was in the slop so you can toss it out, but his last he improved slightly but beat only two horses. Now he ships in and drops in class, or perceived drop in class. You can't ignore a John Servis horse, he is a solid trainer and wins 23% in allowance races. Here is my problem with the #6, he has never won a route, never won off a layoff and I believe he may have been racing well over his head. He is a stalker and there is some speed in this race, just not sure if he will get it down today.
Next is # 8 Becca's Run ML 5/2, and she should be 7/2. He has won two in a row, maiden at a mile and then state bred Allowance$40Kn1X at six furlongs coming off a layoff. I like his chances here a great deal. You have a colt that has won at this distance at this track, been in the money in every race. Shows front end speed and his trainer, Norm Painter excels with Sprint/Route angle (23%) and Won Last Start (20%). Most would consider this a step up in class going from state bred's to open company, but he should be able to handle this field. Anything over 7/2, he is my play of the day to win.
#7 Charge ML 5/1. Won his maiden going a mile and has stayed routing since. Has been racing over in Maryland with mixed results, but has shown good speed for a stalker. So you could look at this as the surface switch/jockey change angle and Barr is a steady trainer. He had a decent work recently and Monterrey takes over the reins. He might surprise but will need the front end to crumble.
#4 Shamrock Ruler ML 6/1 and should be at 10/1. Won his maiden at Pen last out at six furlongs. So we have him moving into his conditions and stretching out, always a good angle. He will go forward and set the pace with Becca's Run and maybe Marine Hymn. The issue is his pedigree is not strong in routes and Madrigal does okay but struggles with sprint/route and last won plays. He will be interesting to watch and see if that big step forward is there or not.
#1 Behemoth ML 6/1, I have it set at 10/1. The mystery colt. Great potential as a 2YO, winning his second outing at Saratoga, then his next race in a $150K stakes event he gets crushed, laid off till he turns three and in an OC race on the inner track at Aqueduct he comes in last. Now his connections take him from the Pletcher barn and over to Chris Grove. So you have a well bred horse, that appeared to get off to a great start under the Wunderkind of 2YO's (Pletcher) then nose dives. Did they move him up to fast, and his confidence is blown,or is he a child prodigy that will never fulfill that breeding? Here is how I see it, Grove does well in these spots winning 21% with new charges, he is dropping in class and a new environment surrounds him plus stretching him out. It's a great angle and worth a play if he get's over 10/1.
The two outsiders are #2 Marine Hymn and #5 Lions Knee, both took for ever to win their maidens and did them in maiden claiming. The have been running in the claiming ranks at Penn and winning and today switch over to this group. Their connections are strong, good riders and they have won at this distance. Of the two, I lean towards Marin Hymn due to running style, he has the capability of getting out and running away.
Like I said this is a tough race to call. I like Becca's Run for the win, and Behemoth for the long shot.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th at Charles Town 4/10/2012
Okay, so I checked TVG this morning and there were no scratches for the 8th Race tonight at Charles Town. It's an Allowance race for fillies and mares 3YO+ for non winners of 2 or which have broken their maiden at Charles Town or for a claiming price. The purse is $26,000 and they are going 41/2 furlongs in this sprint.
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
The value play is #3 American Spice ML 15/1. She is going to be making her second start at CT having racing a ton down at Calder and Tampa, as a 3YO. The key here is the trainer switch to Comi, who hits 19% on 2nd off a layoff, and has an outstanding record with dirt sprints. She has shown flashes of speed in the past, likes to get out front, and with this short distance can wire it. Comi keeps Almodovar on board where they hit 25% of the time. Her last one was a rough trip with the bump and going 3 wide. If she can get out quick she has as good a chance as anyone to win it, at 15/1 she is a good value in this field
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012
We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On. First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say. Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race. It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass. It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012
We are having a tough week getting any action going. Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Play of the Day: 5th Race at Hawthorne 3/28/2012
Last night at Charles Town, Stop the Bull came in second on a dead heat. Unfortunately, he went off at his morning line of 5/1, and we needed a lot better than that to take the risk. The selection worked but the value didn't. So in the end he would have been a no play.
Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne. It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.
This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year. The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72. In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value. The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back. Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.
I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.
Today, we head to Chicago, and will look at the 5th Race at Hawthorne. It's an allowance race for 3YO and upward going 6 furlongs, which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $35,000, it's labeled $35,000N1X and a field of eight is scheduled.
This is another one of those tough races to find value off the morning line. The one I keep coming back to is the #3 Captain Jack ML 6/1. He is a lightly raced 5YO (10 races lifetime) and making his second start since being a 3YO. In that first start back on March 9th, he gave a decent account of himself, he actually had a solid fourth going but with one furlong to the finish several horse passed him. Not bad for a first outing in over a year. The sixth place horse in that race has come back to win a $17,500 claiming race with a Beyer of 72. In the past he has flashed some good speed figures and would expect an improvement today or a bounce, hence the value. The other angle is Granitz is taking the blinkers off and is bringing him right back. Granitz is a steady trainer across the board and think his intentions are strong here. There is something there or Granitz would have put him back in the claiming ranks.
I also like #5 Ghetto Cat ML 4/1, but I don't see us getting any value on this Catalano trained 4YO. So we play Captain Jack at 9/1 or better.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Play of the Day: 8th Race Charles Town for 03/13/12
The race yesterday at Turf Paradise turned out to be a bust. Not only didn't we get the odds on Hay Gear but he also ran up the track on us. He had a morning line of 5/1 and expected him to go off at 8/1 or higher. In the end he was bet down to 3/1 taking all the value out of the play of the day. Picking winners is hard enough, but if we are going to go down, at least let's get our price.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
Today, the DRF gives us the 8th race at Charles Town. It's an Allowance for fillies and mares, 4YO+. The purse is $31,000C for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance, since Nov. 13,2011 or never have won 4 races. The obvious choice in this one is the, #7 Silver Heart. She has the speed, the class and an outstanding record of 11 wins in 27 runs here at Charles Town. So where does that leave us? Is the #7 vulnerable? Yes, she is, all of them are in this group. The one thing I noticed about all of them is they have a tendency to bounce or have short form cycles. After going over it for a while, the one I keep coming back to is the #6 Omara Devil ML 5/1.
This is all angles here. First, she has won 3 of 9 here at Charles Town, finishing in the money 7 of 9. She is shipping in from Laurel and cutting back in distance. Based on her patterns, she looks ready to pop a good race, and had a decent workout at Bowie. She get's Acosta back on, and he seems to ride her well, and Grove while off to a slow start, maybe this 5YO mare will get him back on track. One last point, she has fared well against Silver Heart and has beaten Shefoggedmyglasses in the past. So we know she can run with these faster horses. The key is we have to get better than 5/1, if the tote slides up over 8/1 she is worth a play.
The #4 Bahia Beach is an interesting 4YO to watch. At 3/1 she could end up being second favorite, but I do like her speed and her last outing was good in a $73,000 Stakes race at Aqueduct. Note, the winner of that race, went on to finish second to It's Tricky last week in a G2 race. I don't see getting any value with her, but watch the board, if slips into an overlay (5/1 or higher), then consider playing her.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park
So yesterday at Aqueduct our primary horse, Street Life, scratched leaving us A Boy Named Em. We got the price we wanted, sadly we didn't get the result we wanted. I read the racing line, and he got squeezed again at the start, this is twice in a row. After that it looked like he dropped down on the rail and took a tour of the track. It's possible Kennealy told the jockey to take it easy if the break wasn't right, I'd keep an out for him next time out.
Today, the DRF gives us an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. It will be the 9th race, going a mile and an eighth over the main track. It is for 4YO and upward which have never won $7500 other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $62,750, so it brings in some fine horses and many here int this field of 10 have a legitimate shot at winning today.
The favorite and likely winner will be the #7 Self Control ML 5/2. I wouldn't call him a lock for this one, but he does look solid here. With that said, I could end the write up right here, but that would be too easy, so in looking for the upset horse at a price the one I keep coming back to is the #9 E. H. Indy ML 5/1. This will this 4YO third trip around GP, the last two were Place finishes, and barely missing in both. Even though his last two Beyer figures have shown an improvement, his past has shown him to be a bouncer. The question to ask has he grown out of that pattern or do we see him resume it today? I'm going with that he continues to improve. The other issue is that he is a closer, but he does stretch out and that could play into his racing style. Pena has shown he does well with horses that have been freshened, along with some good results in allowance races.
I know this reads like I'm a tepid on him and maybe so, it is a tough group today, and if I had to look elsewhere I find the #5 Unbridled Kimanchi ML 8/1 interesting. So in the end, I will go with the #5, maybe do a $2 win/place wager just to cover him not getting there in time. I have had these kind break my heart so many times at the wire, so why not hedge.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Today, the DRF gives us an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. It will be the 9th race, going a mile and an eighth over the main track. It is for 4YO and upward which have never won $7500 other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won two races. The purse is $62,750, so it brings in some fine horses and many here int this field of 10 have a legitimate shot at winning today.
The favorite and likely winner will be the #7 Self Control ML 5/2. I wouldn't call him a lock for this one, but he does look solid here. With that said, I could end the write up right here, but that would be too easy, so in looking for the upset horse at a price the one I keep coming back to is the #9 E. H. Indy ML 5/1. This will this 4YO third trip around GP, the last two were Place finishes, and barely missing in both. Even though his last two Beyer figures have shown an improvement, his past has shown him to be a bouncer. The question to ask has he grown out of that pattern or do we see him resume it today? I'm going with that he continues to improve. The other issue is that he is a closer, but he does stretch out and that could play into his racing style. Pena has shown he does well with horses that have been freshened, along with some good results in allowance races.
I know this reads like I'm a tepid on him and maybe so, it is a tough group today, and if I had to look elsewhere I find the #5 Unbridled Kimanchi ML 8/1 interesting. So in the end, I will go with the #5, maybe do a $2 win/place wager just to cover him not getting there in time. I have had these kind break my heart so many times at the wire, so why not hedge.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 1
Place: 0
Show: 2
Monday, March 5, 2012
Price Play @Turf Paradise for 3/5/12
Today we take a look at the 8th race at Turf Paradise, it's an Allowance race for $13,000NW2L going seven and a half furlongs over turf. There is a field of 10 entered and it's a real mixed bag as you would expect. The one I like in this race is the #6 Bell Blitz with a morning line of 10/1.
The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.
We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!
Record
Starts 4
Wins 1
Place 0
Show 1
The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.
We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!
Record
Starts 4
Wins 1
Place 0
Show 1
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
9th @Sunland for 2/28/2012
I couldn't resist so for fun I will offer up today the 9th race at Sunland Park. It's an Allowance race for $30,000NW1 for 4YO and upward going a mile and 70, a field of 11 goes forward.
Money Pick:
#11 Carnivore ML 6/1
The first question will the odds hold? The field looks like all NW1, inconsistent and shaky at best. My hunch goes with what he did as a 3YO. He ran decent back on the east coast, and showed some speed in routes at the G2 and G3 level. It appears as a 4YO he might have gotten lost it what they were trying to do with him. With Weston it looks like he is finding his way back, improving Beyer's, the standard two sprints to route play, and strong breeding.
I also like that Hernandez is still on board, and in his last you can see and in and out play. Weston has a good record at the allowance level, so thinking he is set up for this race.
Money Pick:
#11 Carnivore ML 6/1
The first question will the odds hold? The field looks like all NW1, inconsistent and shaky at best. My hunch goes with what he did as a 3YO. He ran decent back on the east coast, and showed some speed in routes at the G2 and G3 level. It appears as a 4YO he might have gotten lost it what they were trying to do with him. With Weston it looks like he is finding his way back, improving Beyer's, the standard two sprints to route play, and strong breeding.
I also like that Hernandez is still on board, and in his last you can see and in and out play. Weston has a good record at the allowance level, so thinking he is set up for this race.
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