I took a long look at the night races across the country and nothing really popped for me, so I took the 4th at Santa Anita to play for a Matinee Special. Its a Maiden Special Weight event for 3YO for $56,000 and we are going to look outside on this one.
#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1
He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's. Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively. There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo. Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady. At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.
If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1. This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season. Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.
Showing posts with label Santa Anita. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santa Anita. Show all posts
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012
We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On. First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say. Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race. It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass. It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1. She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today. Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance). Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with ...
#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1
She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings. Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her. Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill. The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look. I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event. She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.
It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.
Friday, March 30, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012
We are having a tough week getting any action going. Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill turf for 4YO+. Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races. I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.
#8 Red Defense ML 3/1
There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so. He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record. His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board. I like the cut back in distance and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.
The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1
What is this our third layoff in a row? After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012
Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse. This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it. I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.
The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass. Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass. Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.
Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1. We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher. He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help. Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one. It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one? His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.
Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1. Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher. The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share. So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch. Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall. I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the mix.
So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.
Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th @Santa Anita for March 9th
Self Control took the 9th at Gulfstream yesterday and I wasn't surprised. He did look like the solid choice in that race, but what did surprise me was that he got a fairly square price of 2/1 (ML 5/2). The fact that my upset choice, E. H. Indy was bet down from 5/1 to around 5/2, I would have taken Self Control in this situation. Self Control paid a nice $6.00 ticket, who wouldn't take a 33% return on their money?
Today we head to the West Coast and will play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's an Optional Claimer for $25,000, for 4YO+ fillies and mares that have never won $10,000 other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races or optional claiming price of $25,000. That was a mouth full, but it's these type of races that bring in live horses, and surprises happen. I almost forgot it is on the grass (downhill start at Santa Anita) going 6 1/2 panels.
When you look at the 10 entrants, there are several here that look sharp. This is one of those races were you can almost over handicap it, so in the end I come up with three I like: #4 Abella ML 6/1, #5 Suances Flower ML 4/1 and #6 Bodie Girl Ml 6/1.
It's one of those situations, like yesterday were you let the action dictate where you go, for the price and will assume she will be overlooked, I like #4 Abella at maybe 3/1 or higher, if she goes below 3/1 then I have to run with #5 Suances Flower (again if the price is right).
What appeals to me with Abella is she is coming back off a win on this course at this distance. Yes, it was her maiden,but she did show a nice Beyer jump, and showed she likes the grass. Blincoe runs a small barn, and his stats are solid, so you have consider his h a 29% win record with WonLastStart for a whopping $4.57 ROI. It looks like this lightly raced 4YO has more upside to go. I also like her running style and that Pedroza is on board again.
Tomorrow I'll be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org blog, not sure what race yet but more than likely the Tampa Bay Derby. Have a great weekend and see you all on Monday.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Today we head to the West Coast and will play the 7th at Santa Anita. It's an Optional Claimer for $25,000, for 4YO+ fillies and mares that have never won $10,000 other than maiden, claiming or starter or which have never won two races or optional claiming price of $25,000. That was a mouth full, but it's these type of races that bring in live horses, and surprises happen. I almost forgot it is on the grass (downhill start at Santa Anita) going 6 1/2 panels.
When you look at the 10 entrants, there are several here that look sharp. This is one of those races were you can almost over handicap it, so in the end I come up with three I like: #4 Abella ML 6/1, #5 Suances Flower ML 4/1 and #6 Bodie Girl Ml 6/1.
It's one of those situations, like yesterday were you let the action dictate where you go, for the price and will assume she will be overlooked, I like #4 Abella at maybe 3/1 or higher, if she goes below 3/1 then I have to run with #5 Suances Flower (again if the price is right).
What appeals to me with Abella is she is coming back off a win on this course at this distance. Yes, it was her maiden,but she did show a nice Beyer jump, and showed she likes the grass. Blincoe runs a small barn, and his stats are solid, so you have consider his h a 29% win record with WonLastStart for a whopping $4.57 ROI. It looks like this lightly raced 4YO has more upside to go. I also like her running style and that Pedroza is on board again.
Tomorrow I'll be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org blog, not sure what race yet but more than likely the Tampa Bay Derby. Have a great weekend and see you all on Monday.
Record:
Selections: 7
Wins: 2
Place: 0
Show: 1
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Santa Anita Handicap Spot Play for today
I'm a big fan of Mark Cramer (also James Quinn), and I just realized that shows my age doesn't it? Anyway, Cramer has an angle for surprise winners. You find a horse with three straight loses that is switching tracks along with a jockey change. Additionally, the horse should be beaten by more than 2 lengths in those three races, dropping (or rising) in class and odds greater than 4/1. Cramer showed a 13% win ratio with a huge ROI.
The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.
Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.
The #8 Gladding fits most of the criteria. It did finish less than 2 lengths back in one of those three races and is moving up in class not down. So consider him a borderline case, but at a morning line of 12/1, it's worth the shot. You got Gladding coming in from Churchill, Rosario is now riding, and he has won at Santa Anita before. So for fun, will put a dime on him.
Side note: I saw El Padrino clipped a 101 in the Risen Star, making two in a row of over 100 Beyer, he looks strong to me. The one I do like is Mark Valeski, who was neck and neck with El Padrino, so he had to have had a Beyer at 100, a huge jump for him. It's early for the Derby hopefuls, but Mark Valeski is quietly rising into contention.
Friday, March 2, 2012
5th Race @Santa Anita for March 2nd
Deputy Darling was a disappointment yesterday at Gulfstream finishing 7th. I didn't get to see the race but did read the recap, well not much in her case. It read like she went on a tour of the course, strange for a Micheal Maker horse. The only consolation was Mr. Illman at the DRF liked her chances too, so it's good to know I didn't misread it entirely. Today the DRF is tossing us another maiden special weight, but this time it's at Santa Anita. It will be the 5th race on turf, a sprint of six and a half furlongs for 3YO fillies. As a reminder, the Santa Anita turf course starts on a downhill run, it can be tricky.
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
My opinion it's a wide open field, plenty of first time starters and the others have seen little racing. Overall out of the field of 10, I like the following:
#10 Fast Moka Too, #9 Darling Dodie, #6 Patty's Pulpit #4 Unbridled Ambition and #3 Allswellonceagain.
I have gone over this field for hours, and can't really land on anyone with a strong conviction, so it get's down to price. If the #10 Fast Moka Too can hold at 3/1 or better, then I go there. Ron Ellis horses usually do well coming off a layoff, he hits 33% on maidens, and her last outing was a solid place finish. Her breeding is good and the workouts have been solid. If the odds go down then I will go with #9 Darling Dodie. She is a first time starter (gulp), with good breeding, nice workouts and comes from a successful barn, Mike Puype. The morning line is 6/1 and anything close to that would attract my attention.
Tomorrow and Sunday, I will be blogging the Weekend Handicapping at http://www.horseplayersassociation.org
Results:
Starts: 3
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
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