Saturday Night Special: 4th @ Santa Anita (Matinee Special)

I took a long look at the night races across the country and nothing really popped for me, so I took the 4th at Santa Anita to play for a Matinee Special.  Its a Maiden Special Weight event for 3YO for $56,000 and we are going to look outside on this one.

#12 Falcon's Throne ML 12/1

He had two races as a 2YO and while the results were disappointing he did flash some nice Beyer's.  Without a doubt you can see the company he ran against, 10 of the 16 have gone onto win impressively.  There are several angles here, we know about the key races, also a new trainer (Kasparoff) takes over who hits 13% in MSW's and the jockey switch to Delgadillo.  Even though he got off slowly in his last, his splits improved and his workouts have been steady.  At 12/1 or better he is a nice play in his 3YO debut.

If the #12 is too rich for you, then take a look at the #4 My Best Brother ML 4/1.  This Canini trained colt is making his 3YO debut after one effort at DelMar last season.  Here is another key race angle, while the show horse returned to win, the better one in this race was Castaway who won the Southwest(G3) at Oaklawn with a 90+ Beyer. Canini has hit 17% on MSW second timer's over the years and a jockey change to Vergara helps. Solid workout pattern with bullets sprinkled in makes this one a nice pick here. The only issue is that 4/1 will not hold, if it does then he is the play.

Price Play: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 3/14/12

Last night in the 8th race at Charles Town we hit the board with Omara Devil coming in second at 15/1.  As expected, Silver Heart won the race, but was surprising is Bahia Beach going off as the favorite. With Omara Devil with a morning line of 5/1 and getting a nice overlay at 15/1, I would have stacked my wagers. One unit win, two to place and three to show.  That would mean at $2 per unit a $12 investment and returned $25.80.

Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500.  So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.

It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders.  So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing.  She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event.  The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today.  Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.

We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the  odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.

Price Play For Sunday, 1st Race @Gulfstream

Normally I don't blog on Sundays, for I'm either in a tournament or playing for my own account.  However, I spotted an interesting price play at Gulfstream Park today in the 1st race.  It's a maiden claiming ($12,500) going 51/2 furlongs.  The price play is ...

#5  Wildcat Sierra ML 12/1

She lost her debut as a 2YO at Calder in a maiden claimer of $32,000. Ships over today as a 3YO, drops in class and shortens the distance.  I would have preferred 2 loses as a 2YO then ship/drop today, but I will risk it if the tote holds up, the value has to be greater than 12/1.

I looked at her first effort and she raced forwardly and then evened out. The winner, California Quick just took off at the halfway point, and crushed the field. I have a feeling Nunez galloped Wildcat Sierra home after the winner took off.   Also, California Quick won recently at the $10,000 claimer level with a Beyer of 60.

Her workouts have been decent, with a nice pattern to them, Arias takes the blinkers off this time. He also has a decent record with maiden claimers and second time starters.  Not a lock for sure, but an excellent value play if the odds go her way.

Good luck!!

Price Play @Turf Paradise for 3/5/12

Today we take a look at the 8th race at Turf Paradise, it's an Allowance race for $13,000NW2L going seven and a half furlongs over turf. There is a field of 10 entered and it's a real mixed bag as you would expect. The one I like in this race is the #6 Bell Blitz with a morning line of 10/1.

The logic on this one is he is shipping in from Santa Anita, had been racing in what I presume to be a higher class, recent claim and a jockey switch. He perked up two back with a third running a solid 70. Today, he cuts back in distance, and there isn't a ton of speed in this crowd. I'm angling a change of surface, distance, jockey might be the perfect tonic for this 4YO.

We finished last week with a $16 winner on Friday!

Record

Starts 4

Wins 1

Place 0

Show 1