The DRF tossed up a low level claiming race today. I normally don't handicap them and thought it would be a neat challenge to take a crack at this one. It's for 3YO and upwards going six furlongs on dirt. The conditions are non winners of two since April 23, 2011, claiming price is $3500. One other condition that horses entered for races of $2500 or less, those races are excluded. That's why you see a couple of runners today with two wins and one of them recently.
Seven have entered and I've got it down to four, I'm going to start with my pick.
#6 Checksandbalances ML 3/1
I have gone back and forth between this 6YO and the #1 High Intellect. The reasons I'm leaning to him is that he has really been running well at Beulah since shipping from PA. He has won two for four at this distance, and the other two he was close in both on off tracks. The angle today is that he gets a new trainer in Juan Aguirre, who is one of the top trainers at Beulah. In fact, he wins 42% with first timers. He won at the $4000 level back at Penn National and is trying this group after almost winning one in the mud. His speed is comparable to the rest, likes to press close to the pace and can go wire to wire. Aguirre keeps Hernandez in the irons, were they hit 38% of the time. 3/1 is a decent price but would like 7/2 or better.
#1 High Impact ML 5/2
Here is another one that found his level after shipping in from the West Coast. Since Charlie Lawson took over this 7YO has won two straight at the $2500 with improving speed. He has been on a short break and posted a bullet work, Lawson wins 21% of the time with layoffs. He likes to stalk the pace, and with no speed this could be an issue, if he stays close he could get it done.
#4 Frantic Domer ML 2/1
He has won two of seven in 2012, his last being a $5000N4L. So that would give him the class edge but his form cycle seems to be short. His last two efforts were at the $3500N2y and $35003y both ending in place finishes. His past Beyer's have never been above 52 and would need a big improvement to beat some of these salter competitors. He likes to press the front and with seven of nine on the board at Beulah you can't ignore him. Just not sure as the morning line favorite is worth the risk/reward.
#5 Atswhatisaid ML 6/1
Won at this level two back in the mud, then stepped up to non winners of three and finished fifth on a late rally. He is the closer in this crowd which makes him dangerous and Joe Poole does well in claiming races with a 21% win record. So dropping back down a level might suit him today. The concern I have is that he has only won once at six furlongs in ten attempts. But then again with little speed in this race he could blow right by them if the pace doesn't grind him down. 6/1 is a fair morning line but would be more interested if we got 8/1 or better.
In the end, unless there is a real swing in the odds somewhere, I will take my chances on #6 Checksandbalances.
Showing posts with label Claiming Races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Claiming Races. Show all posts
Monday, April 23, 2012
Monday, April 9, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th at Parx Racing 4/9/2012
We got a tidy score with Race for Urga in the Wait A While Stakes at Gulfstream yesterday, she paid $6.40 for the win. I didn't expect her to go off as the favorite but at 2+/1 to win, she would have been a nice bet. Today we return to where we had our last big win, Park Racing for the 7th race. It's a claiming event for 3YO+ which have never won two races. Claiming price is $16,000 (16-14) and they are running 7 furlongs for the $26,000 purse.
There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact. The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.
This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed. There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action. Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70. I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.
It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players. Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.
There is a big field of 11 and several are nice value opportunities, almost too many in fact. The one I keep coming back to is the #11 Gusto Di Limone ML 20/1.
This lightly raced 4YO son of Lemondrop Kid broke his maiden last out and was promptly claimed. There are a ton of angles to play here, the recent claim were Auwarter hits 22% on first time claimers is the obvious one. The colt has hit the board 3 of 5 times and is on the board 2 of 2 here at Parx, so we know he can get into the action. Had a nice bump in his Beyer (50), and out of the key race angle, Dance With Bull has come back to win twice and has Beyer's over 70. I also find it interesting that Auwarter has the morning line favorite entered, Sure Got It, but he puts on his top jockey, Garcia on this one. This connection has hit 22% for a $2.62 ROI.
It'll be interesting to see where the odds end up on him, I can't fathom getting 20/1. I'm sure he will be bet down, but he is a nice play above 9/1. There are plenty of others in here too, almost a field of dreams for value players. Normally would pass on this one for that reason. However, the longer I look at the #11 the more I like him.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Play of the Day: Ist Race @ Aqueduct 4/4/2012
Last night at Mountaineer, our choice Holiday Dreaming got up for a show finish, but she went the wrong way on the tote board. Morning line of 8/1 and out of the gate at 6/1. There was no value at 6/1 so there would be no play . Today, we go to Aqueduct to play one of my horses from my virtual stable.
It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th. The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.
#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1
She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2. Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability. Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia, let her gallop around and wait for another day. I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations. Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board. Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.
It's the 1st Race on the card, a claiming race of $15,000 for fillies and mares, 3YO and upwards. The additional conditions are non winners of 3 races or 4YO that have not won since October 4th. The 8 entrants will be going 6 panels for a purse of $26,000.
#8 Time Marches On ML 6/1
She started her 4YO season by breaking her maiden going 6F and then bounced off her second effort by winning at the $15,000 Claiming level for non winners of 2. Her speed fig's are lagging to this bunch, but I think we will see an improvement as she matures. Several of the horses from her past, have gone on to win with Beyer's in the 70's and 90's, so she has the capability. Toss out that effort in February, I watched the race replay and she hopped at the start, and made no effort after that. I'm thinking Garcia, let her gallop around and wait for another day. I like the Englehart/Garcia connection, hitting 22% of the time for a nice ROI, and Englehart has an outstanding record with these types of situations. Not sure if she will win it, but do believe she can get on the board. Now the issue is can we get her into an overlay spot? I would like to see at least 9/1 to play here.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Play of the Day: 9th race @Gulfstream Park 03/29/2012
The 5th at Hawthorne yesterday was a repeat of Tuesday. Captain Jack raced well and got a third, but he never wavered off his 5/1 morning line, so he was a no play. That race was highly contentious, and the money got spread evenly among all the contenders, spoiling any chance for an overlay. Today there is no such problem, in fact, there maybe too many choices.
It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event. There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".
I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.
#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1
She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful. You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim. It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.
#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1
Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.
#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1
I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help. This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.
Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1
She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances. Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.
I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.
It's the 9th Race at Gulfstream Park for 4YO+ fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs in an Optional Claiming($62K/N2X) event. There is a field of 10, and there are four in here that look tempting. I will touch on three of them and why I don't like their spots, and then the fourth one being the "Play of the Day".
I will go right down the list in numerical order, I got lucky and it worked out that way.
#2 Beso Grande ML 12/1
She is the class of the field, but after winning two stakes races at Calder in the summer, the last three have been awful. You could play the key race angle here, jockey switch to Prado and might be an interesting play. What I don't like is DiMauro is ice cold, Prado has been quiet, and why is she being put for a claim. She is a proven stakes winner, with over $200K in earnings and now after one race as a 4YO the put her for claim. It doesn't feel right to me, so pass.
#4 Daddy's Honor ML 6/1
Shipping in from Tampa, Jorge Navarro is solid trainer, but the big challenges for her, is this group is faster than her best times. Jurado is 1 for 41 over 30 days and 1 for 11 in the last 10. Does see any angles here.
#5 Donna Getyourgun ML 12/1
I gave this 5YO a long look and I do like Ian Wilkes, her trainer. He has an excellent 2OFF record of winning 20% but overall he has had a cold meet at GP. She showed some good Beyer's (80's) back in mid summer, and Bravo takes over. What worries me though is most of her good days have been on turf and not convinced coming back on the dirt is going to help. This is the one I could be wrong about, but not sure it will be her day.
Now to the one I do like, #10 Henny's Hurricance ML 12/1
She will be making her first start as a 4YO, after winning four out of 11 as a 3YO. She showed she can win anywhere, over different surfaces and distances. Ken McPeek, who has a 20% win rate, has been working her well. He puts Leparoux back in the irons, were he has ridden her for 3 of her 5 wins. Her running style versatile and has shown flashes of competitive speed. I normally shy away from long layoff types, but she has shown she can win, and that freshener might be the tonic.
I think the #2 and #4 will be bet heavily, so no value. It get's down to the #5 or #10. It's a tough one, but I lean to Henny's Hurricane. I will go with the solid trainer and hot jockey angle, and toss in the layoff play, and we will get some value on her. She should float up over 12/1.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012
So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way. Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race. It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile. At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it. I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better. The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.
The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.
This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all. The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.
If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?
The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.
This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all. The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.
If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?
Monday, March 19, 2012
Play of the Day: 2nd Race at Mountaineer Park
Today we start the week with some night racing at Mountaineer Park. Our play of the day comes from the 2nd race going 6 furlongs, $5000 claiming for fillies and mares, 3YO and upward. Straight claimer, no conditions.
#3 Magnificent Mile ML 8/1
This 4YO is shipping from Beulah and is 2 for 3 in 2012. Improving Beyer's and looks to be in the middle of a nice form cycle. The place horse in his last went on to win next outing with a 56 Beyer. Melvin Davis takes over and has an excellent claimer record and puts the Mountaineer best jockey on board, Parker. 8/1 is a square price and if we can get 10/1 then he would be a stack bet.
#3 Magnificent Mile ML 8/1
This 4YO is shipping from Beulah and is 2 for 3 in 2012. Improving Beyer's and looks to be in the middle of a nice form cycle. The place horse in his last went on to win next outing with a 56 Beyer. Melvin Davis takes over and has an excellent claimer record and puts the Mountaineer best jockey on board, Parker. 8/1 is a square price and if we can get 10/1 then he would be a stack bet.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Play(s) of the Day: 9th race @Fair Grounds
What a week! Wednesday we get the right price but the wrong result, then yesterday at Aqueduct we get the right result but the wrong price. The #3 scratches out and he would have been the favorite, and that opens the door for our selection to go from 7/2 morning line to 4/5 at post time. Needless to say, there would have been no bet, but it's still nice to pick a winner, even if it's chalk.
Today, we will run down to the Fair Grounds and play the 9th Race. It's a $5000 claimer for 4YO and upwards going a mile and sixteenth. The conditions of this race allow for some real salty entries. I admit, I don't handicap low level claimers because the form cycle is so hard to spot. However, if you can figure it out these type of races bring the best value. In this one, there are two of interest, and like always the tote will dictate the action.
From a pure angle play, the #11 Random Move ML 9/2 fits the bill. This 5YO gelding is shipping in from Delta Downs, were he had three tough races, the last won he held on to third. He get's the hot jockey in Rosie Napravnik and his trainer, Jonas Gibson has done well at the Fair Grounds with his limited barn. I know Smashin Thru has handled twice in those three races, and his speed sits in the mid 50 low 60's, but looking at the past, he seems to find something extra here at the FG. If he goes to 8/1 or higher he would be an intriguing play.
Next one is the #8 Pharme Legend ML 10/1. Out of the gate the price is there and suspect it will go higher by post time. What makes him attractive is we have a lightly race 4YO, who has done well for himself. Won 3 of 13 and in the money 7 times. That record is from Texas at Retama, and his first two spins at the Fair Grounds have been lackluster. So why today? I like the jockey switch to Shane Sellers, his last work out here at FG was a bullet, he raced better at the first two calls last out. I know it doesn't seem much to go on, and he might not like this surface, but Danny Pish is a steady trainer, and he might have this one ready to go. The key is, does the #11 get the 8/1 or better? if so go there, if not take a small shot on Pharme Legend.
Tomorrow, I'll be blogging over a www.horseplayersassociation.org, and will do a weekly recap in the afternoon.
Today, we will run down to the Fair Grounds and play the 9th Race. It's a $5000 claimer for 4YO and upwards going a mile and sixteenth. The conditions of this race allow for some real salty entries. I admit, I don't handicap low level claimers because the form cycle is so hard to spot. However, if you can figure it out these type of races bring the best value. In this one, there are two of interest, and like always the tote will dictate the action.
From a pure angle play, the #11 Random Move ML 9/2 fits the bill. This 5YO gelding is shipping in from Delta Downs, were he had three tough races, the last won he held on to third. He get's the hot jockey in Rosie Napravnik and his trainer, Jonas Gibson has done well at the Fair Grounds with his limited barn. I know Smashin Thru has handled twice in those three races, and his speed sits in the mid 50 low 60's, but looking at the past, he seems to find something extra here at the FG. If he goes to 8/1 or higher he would be an intriguing play.
Next one is the #8 Pharme Legend ML 10/1. Out of the gate the price is there and suspect it will go higher by post time. What makes him attractive is we have a lightly race 4YO, who has done well for himself. Won 3 of 13 and in the money 7 times. That record is from Texas at Retama, and his first two spins at the Fair Grounds have been lackluster. So why today? I like the jockey switch to Shane Sellers, his last work out here at FG was a bullet, he raced better at the first two calls last out. I know it doesn't seem much to go on, and he might not like this surface, but Danny Pish is a steady trainer, and he might have this one ready to go. The key is, does the #11 get the 8/1 or better? if so go there, if not take a small shot on Pharme Legend.
Tomorrow, I'll be blogging over a www.horseplayersassociation.org, and will do a weekly recap in the afternoon.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Play of the Day: 7th @Aqueduct 3/15/12
We got the price on Precision Farming at Gulfstream yesterday, 15/1, sadly we didn't get the result. I'm not sure how I would have played it, she had shown issues in the past, and felt lukewarm all the way around, maybe one unit to win and let it go at that. Today is Thursday, so it must be Aqueduct! It feels like every Thursday the DRF tosses us a race from there and today is no exception.
It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc. I will refrain writing out the conditions today. It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough. There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.
If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2. This is a straight angle play. He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot). There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow. There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.
It's the 7th race, a Optional Claimer for $75,000 non winners of one etc. I will refrain writing out the conditions today. It's for 3YO going 6F on the inner track. A nice field of 8 lightly raced 3YO's have entered and this group is tough. There are several I like in here, especially the #3 and #4, either one show they can handle this one, and if we could a decent value I would take #3 Copy My Swagger ML 3/1 in a flash, but I don't think it will be there. So where do we go to get some value in this bunch.
If the tote plays out right and the money falls on the #3 and #4, and we can assume money will land on #8 Behemoth ML 5/1, Pletcher's horse, we might get some play on the #6 Sportswriter ML 5/2. This is a straight angle play. He won two back at this distance on the inner track, cutting back today, improving Beyer's, Rudy Rodriquez is having a great meet, and he puts Dominquez on board (who is red hot). There is no doubt he will need a strong effort today, for he mainly has faced state breds, but there are times you have to go with the flow. There is an old saying, the trend is your friend and when you find a hot trainer/jockey combo, you foresake form and go with it. Let's see how the tote treats us, but he will be a good play if he can bust over 5/1.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Price Play: 6th Race at Gulfstream Park 3/14/12
Last night in the 8th race at Charles Town we hit the board with Omara Devil coming in second at 15/1. As expected, Silver Heart won the race, but was surprising is Bahia Beach going off as the favorite. With Omara Devil with a morning line of 5/1 and getting a nice overlay at 15/1, I would have stacked my wagers. One unit win, two to place and three to show. That would mean at $2 per unit a $12 investment and returned $25.80.
Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500. So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.
It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders. So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing. She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event. The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today. Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.
We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.
Today, we go to Gulfstream Park for the 6th race, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass. It's an Optional claiming event for 4YO+, fillies and mares that have never won $7500 twice other than maiden, claiming starter of state bred or which have never won 3 races or claiming price $62,500. So those broad conditions bring us a field of 10, and several good horses.
It's easy to see the #5, 6, and 7 are the top ones and you could toss in the #1 and #10 as outsiders. So I went to find a price play in this event and found the #8 Precision Farming ML 12/1 to be intriguing. She made her 6YO debut here last month at this level and was closing down on some these in that event. The place horse two back went on to win at this level with a Beyer in the mid 80's, and Linda Rice is bringing her back promptly. No doubt there has been issues of some kind in the past, seeing she has raced only 15 times in 4 years, but she has won 5, and has shown speed to beat these ladies. I do like Linda Rice horses, and Lezcano is back on board. He is having a good meet, and that might signal she is ready to go today. Also, she is getting an extra 1/2 furlong today, and she has won at this distance and at 6F, this small stretch out might be just the tonic.
We need 12/1 or higher, and not sure how to wager as I would have to see the odds at post time. Good luck and will see you all tomorrow.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Play of the Day: 1st Race @ Turf Paradise
Yesterday, I dropped in a price play in the 1st Race at Gulstream, Wildcat Sierra. The morning line was 12/1 and she went off at 10/1, since she went off less than the morning line, there would have been no play. The key to the price play is that the odds have to be at or higher than the morning line, or the horse becomes an over bet.
Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise, it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs. It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult. The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach. Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers. The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group? I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.
Today, we will take a look at the 1st Race at Turf Paradise, it's a $8,000 claimer for 3YO fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs. It's a small field so getting a value play will be difficult. The #2 January Miss ML 7/2 looks like the likely favorite in this one. She won two back at this level and then moved up a notch where she ran well but weakened at the end. After the #2 you have many options to go, and for me it would be the #6 Hay Gear ML 5/1. She won her maiden three back, then moved to a $3500 claimer and won. Her last outing was in an OC$25K which we can see that was an overreach. Her speed Beyer's have flashed in the 50's, she likes to run to the front and her trainer, Lorefice has a good record with the sprint/claimers. The question is, will 5/1 be of any value with this group? I like to see 8/1 or higher to attract my money.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
7th Race @Gulfstream Park onTurf
Yesterday at Aqueduct we got served up the triple whammy. First the track was muddy, Matt Carothers at TVG selected Notell, and the kiss of death on Elusive Rumour is when Simon Bray selected her. I like Simon and his thoughts, especially on breeding, but when he handicaps, I usually go the other way. Likewise, I do like Matt Carothers selections, and usually feel comfortable when he and I agree. I will say I was pleased with Elusive Rumour's effort. She went forward, settled and hung tough for a show finish. I would watch for her next time out, she is ready to break her maiden.
So today we go south to Gulfstream for the 7th race on turf going a mile and sixteenth. It's a $40,000 claiming event for 4YO+ fillies and mares. A field of 11 have entered and it's a competitive group. The #10 Brampton looks like the favorite and did have a good run last out, but for the price play I will go with ...
#9 Deputy Darling ML 5/1
She had won three in a row before she lost in an allowance race here at GP. She shows consistent speed over the grass, and even bumps into the low to mid 80's. I like the connections of Maker and Leparoux, and she has won at this level here and at Churchill. She has had four workouts since her last effort, nothing special but it shows she is fit and ready. Lastly, she has hit the board at GP three of five times, including two wins. My only issue is she is a closer, but I do like how Leparoux has ridden her. Anything close to 5/1 she is a play.
Record:
Starts: 2
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
So today we go south to Gulfstream for the 7th race on turf going a mile and sixteenth. It's a $40,000 claiming event for 4YO+ fillies and mares. A field of 11 have entered and it's a competitive group. The #10 Brampton looks like the favorite and did have a good run last out, but for the price play I will go with ...
#9 Deputy Darling ML 5/1
She had won three in a row before she lost in an allowance race here at GP. She shows consistent speed over the grass, and even bumps into the low to mid 80's. I like the connections of Maker and Leparoux, and she has won at this level here and at Churchill. She has had four workouts since her last effort, nothing special but it shows she is fit and ready. Lastly, she has hit the board at GP three of five times, including two wins. My only issue is she is a closer, but I do like how Leparoux has ridden her. Anything close to 5/1 she is a play.
Record:
Starts: 2
Wins: 0
Place: 0
Show: 1
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