Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20. The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely. You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20. Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.
Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile. The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).
There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle. Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.
He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga. His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off. His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form. He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today. The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now. 5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.
