Saturday Night Special: 6th Race Penn National 4/21/12

At Aqueduct yesterday, Shakeira,  our choice hit the board with a win and paid $8.20.  This time I didn't get greedy and put the whole $12 on the nose and the return was $49.20!  So we have three winners in a row and thought tonight I would toss out a longshot at Penn National.   It's the 6th Race, an Allowance $40,000N1X for 4YO+ Pennsylvania state breds going six furlongs on dirt.

I originally liked Blue Tick Hound but he has scratched, that leaves me to go outside and I keep coming back to #1 Sleeping Tiger ML 3/1.  This will be his third start as a 4YO and fifth lifetime.  He broke his maiden as a 2YO, the next race was a disaster in an allowance race for non winners of two.  Took a year off and fired a 66 Beyer in his first outing then right back to win a claiming race ($13-15KN2L) with a Beyer of 76.  We also have to like how Bernard Houghton bring in horses in these situations and win 21% with short layoffs.  He also is putting Dana Whitney on board who scores 23% on Houghton mounts.  Final thoughts, he has won twice here at Penn National, a 5f workout suggest he is ready.  There are several that will go out to the front and with his pressing style he should be right there to jump them.  If we can get 9/1 then the risk is worth the reward.  No matter is should be an interesting race.

Play of the Day:7th Race @ Aqueduct 4/11/2012

Last night at Charles Town, American Spice got up for show paying $4.20.  The morning line was 15/1 and she went off at 6/1. Not the price we were looking for, but the show pool was decent so if you were inclined a $12 show bet would have worked out nicely.  You would have gotten $25.20 for a profit of $13.20.  Some say play the show pool is a losing proposition, but with right odds and a good pool, you can sometimes salvage a play. I've told my friends many times, what's the difference if I make $25.20 to win or show, it's still $25.20 returned. That is all predicated if you like the horse too, lukewarm on the pony then pass the race.

Today we head back to Aqueduct and look at the 7th Race, an Allowance for non winners of one, 3YO+ state breds going a mile.  The purse is $67,000 (sALW67000N1X).

There are several in this one that are possibles if you can figure out their form cycle.  Overall, none of them wow me but I do like the #3 Silent Thunder ML 5/1.

He is a lightly raced 3YO making his second start as one. Got off to an excellent 2YO season, winning his maiden second out and then a solid place finish in the Golden Roses ($75) at Saratoga.  His owners then switched trainers and the next efforts were way off.  His last race was on the inner track, in the mud so hard to tell what is going on, except his Beyer perked up. Schettino is a solid trainer and maybe he did need the lay off and is getting back into form.  He won his second out last season and thinking he is ready to fire again today.  The stretch out shouldn't be a problem based on breeding, on the main track today could be considered a surface change and Ortiz should have him figured out now.  5/1 is a touch short for this one, would be interested if we could see him a 8/1 or higher.

Play of the Day: 9th Race at Mountaineer Park

I complained about getting no action last week, so what happens? We get two live ones yesterday at Turf Paradise. Southern Sculptor, has a morning line of 5/1 goes off at 11/1 and Pharo's Gold, our second choice starts at 6/1 and goes out of the gate at 16/1.  I hope you played Southern Sculptor for the  payoff was outstanding, maybe you split the bet between them? Still a good result, or if you followed my advice and took Pharo's Gold because of the higher odds, you still made out okay, $12 stack bet gets you a $25.80 return for a $13.80 profit.  Bottom line we got them in the money and off to a good start for the week.

Today, we head to Mountaineer Park, and will look at the 9th race, for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs. It's an Allowance race for non winners of 2, and no other conditions apply, purse of $20,200.

The value play here will be the #6 Holiday Dreaming ML 8/1.  She broke her maiden last out, and I know that it's a big risk playing her right back again. Several angles to play here,  she is shipping in from Laurel, moving right into an Allowance race of N2 and they put Pereira in the irons.  There is also a minor key race angle, the race on Feb24th, the 7th and 8th place horses have since won. The 8th place finisher has actually won two in a row with an improved Beyer of 41.  The last angle is Susan Clooney , she does well in Allowance/sprint races. This fillies only bad race was at a mile, and believe with the change of scenery she will make a big improvement tonight.  Big test for her, but like her hitting the board if not winning it outright.  Now let's see if we can get value for her over 8/1, would like her at 12/1+.

Saturday Night Special: Penn Natl 4th Race

I was scanning the entries this afternoon and found an interesting spot play.  It's the 4th race at Penn National, an Allowance race($36,000N1X) for 4YO+ fillies and mares, going a mile on the dirt.  Most like the #1 for the live longshot play, and she is interesting, however when I look deeper into the lineup I found the ...

#9 For Real Too ML 8/1

The attraction is this 4YO filly, is  lightly raced, has won 3 of 11 starts, those being 3 in a row.  She is shipping in from Parx, where she started her 4YO season, and it was a vast improvement from her last effort at Monmouth.  You'll notice she improved on each point of the call, her Beyer popped up to a 66.  Today, Bruce Levine cuts her back in distance (1 win in three attempts, with 2 seconds) and he puts on Cora, who is having a great meet with 21% wins.  What adds to this is Bruce Levine having an excellent record with 2OFF (26%) and 24% win record in Allowance races.  In summary, the angle is a top trainer, shipping in off a good first start and adding a top jockey.  Now if we can get better than 8/1 it would be a Saturday Night Special!

Play of the Day: 6th Race at Turf Paradise 3/26/2012

So we start another week trying to find value propositions using the daily race that the DRF tosses our way.  Today we are at Turf Paradise for the 6th race.  It's an Optional Claimer ($20K/N3L) for 3YO and upward going a mile.  At first pass, it's a tough group and I can see several taking it.  I like the #5 Holy Saint at 5/1, but I don't see us getting 6/1 or better.  The #6 Relatorre is an interesting situation, but again not sure we can get the value we need.

The one that struck my eye was the #4 King of the Sky ML 6/1.

This colt is a lightly raced 4YO, who won his first start after a year off. Going a mile here at TP finishing with a credible Beyer. Next outing, they try the grass and he fell, a short break and back on the dirt going a mile again, and bounces back nicely. Finishes 3rd, even with being bumped and all.  The winner of that race came back to win and posted a 75 Beyer. Valorie Lund has a decent record here at TP, and really does well in Allowance races. He had a nice workout recently and can see him improving. With the contention in this race, we need at least 9/1 to make him attractive to play.

If #5 Holy Saint drifts up over 8/1, I might be inclined to go in that direction. I just don't think we will get that price. Difficult race to start the week, but then again, they are all difficult aren't they?  

Play of the Day: 7th Race at Santa Anita 3/23/2012

Yesterday at Gulfstream turned out to be no picnic. Grouse didn't meet the tote requirement, then looked like he had a shot but got cut off, not sure if he would have made it, but he was in the hunt. Act of War(IRE) looked strong even though he was wide into the stretch, but he unraveled. So at the end, Grouse was a no play, but Act of War(IRE) went off at 15/1 vs the ML of 10/1, so a $6 to show would have been played. No return on that one. Today we will take the DRF race of the day at Santa Anita.

It's the 7th race, The Pasadena Stakes for 3YO going a mile on the turf. We have 10 entries gunning for the $70,000 purse.  This is a tough field and no glaring angles are showing, meaning we would normally pass on this race. But this is the race dealt so we make the best of it.  I pulled three out of this stew for value play consideration, none are dead on plays, so the tote will dictate if a play goes down.

The first one to consider is #3 Captain Obvious(IRE) ML 8/1. This will be his second trip today, and first on grass.  Cecil puts blinkers on, always an interesting angle and cuts back a smidgen on distance. His first outing was against Laison and he did seem to recover from a slow start. The trouble I have with him, and it's not the horse, it's Gutierrez. He is a fine jockey and all, but he is 0-15 on grass.  Plus Cecil doesn't have the greatest layoff record. Could be wrong.

Next one is #7 Vibrato Jazz ML 8/1.  We had this John Sadler trained 3YO back in January at 12/1 and scored nicely as a place finisher.  He brings him back and he wins his maiden going longer, and I believe cutting back today on this closer is no help.  Sadler also move Rosario down to the #10 and puts Mike Smith on board. Not a bad thing but it speaks of Sadler's intention with this one.  It will be a good test for him but is Sadler serious about winning this one?   His Beyer's have improved every race and Sadler has a solid record here, feeling this might be a prep race, or trying to find class level.

Last one, #9 Buffalo Billy(IRE) ML 8/1.  Making his NA debut and in the hands of Patrick Gallagher.  The angle here is thin but GB/IRE first time starters do score their fair share.  So we go with first time Lasix, good numbers in Ireland, Gallagher has a strong record with his first time starters under his training, and does well with the synthetic to turf switch.  Breeding is good, works have been steady, but the clincher is Bejarano. He is a 20% on grass, and is doing well this meet overall.  I will also take the Irish connection, being it's St.Paddy's month and all. Not saying he will win, but thinking he will in the  mix.

So where does that leave us. If the #8 can get better than 9/1 then $2 Win and $4 to place. The #9 goes higher than 10/1, we drop $6 to show. If these two bust out on the tote, then the #3 Captain Obvious would be the choice but at 12/1 or higher and it would be $10 to show only. Not a super action race, but you have to measure risk versus the reward and there is too much risk to go deep on any of them.

Have a great weekend, will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org this weekend, and will post recap on Sunday.