Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Play of the Day: 9th Race at Mountaineer Park

I complained about getting no action last week, so what happens? We get two live ones yesterday at Turf Paradise. Southern Sculptor, has a morning line of 5/1 goes off at 11/1 and Pharo's Gold, our second choice starts at 6/1 and goes out of the gate at 16/1.  I hope you played Southern Sculptor for the  payoff was outstanding, maybe you split the bet between them? Still a good result, or if you followed my advice and took Pharo's Gold because of the higher odds, you still made out okay, $12 stack bet gets you a $25.80 return for a $13.80 profit.  Bottom line we got them in the money and off to a good start for the week.

Today, we head to Mountaineer Park, and will look at the 9th race, for 3YO fillies going 6 furlongs. It's an Allowance race for non winners of 2, and no other conditions apply, purse of $20,200.

The value play here will be the #6 Holiday Dreaming ML 8/1.  She broke her maiden last out, and I know that it's a big risk playing her right back again. Several angles to play here,  she is shipping in from Laurel, moving right into an Allowance race of N2 and they put Pereira in the irons.  There is also a minor key race angle, the race on Feb24th, the 7th and 8th place horses have since won. The 8th place finisher has actually won two in a row with an improved Beyer of 41.  The last angle is Susan Clooney , she does well in Allowance/sprint races. This fillies only bad race was at a mile, and believe with the change of scenery she will make a big improvement tonight.  Big test for her, but like her hitting the board if not winning it outright.  Now let's see if we can get value for her over 8/1, would like her at 12/1+.