Whoever said, “Less is more” made have been on to something, I was out of town this weekend and had little time to handicap the nine races for the Survival at the Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park. The result was four winners and one third out of nine races. That got me thinking. I have said time and again that I deny my instincts and do too much analysis, which I know believe leads to paralysis. The lessoned learned is, “less is more.”
Two examples of that would be the selection of Romacaca in the Taylor Made Matchmaker (G3) and Coil in the Haskell (G1). In regards to Romacaca, she had won five previous starts; I had her back on July 3rd when she won the Miss Liberty. I took a quick look at the field and didn’t see anyone that was in better form than her. Played the recent winner angle moving up in class and paid $13.20 to win!
In looking at the Haskell, I dumbed (me not Baffert) it down and went with Baffert. His barn is red hot, and since none of the big names being bandied about have impressed me, I took the connections angle and Coil gave one of those Animal Kingdom finishes. The result was a tidy $8.40 payoff. Now if I can just remember this every weekend. Listen to the inner voice grasshopper!
There is one great race to share from this weekend; #4 Winter Memories winning the Lake George (G2), it was exceptional. When you watch it notice at the ¾ pole, Jose Lezcano had to almost bring Winter Memories to a complete stop, after that what takes place is spectacular.
On a handicapping note, if you have not had the opportunity to attend Night School brought to you by HorseplayerNow, please do so. I attended a couple of weeks ago on the topic of 2 year olds. The panel was excellent, well versed and answered all our questions. What I found interesting was the tidbits of information you got when the panelist would talk amongst themselves. I would like to share a few things I learned. In 2 year olds it’s about pedigree, workouts and trainers. In pedigree, look for a high percentage 2YO debut sires, like Tapit. There was a discussion that the dam is now becoming just as important. With workouts, it’s not just the bullet workouts that matter, but also works with top horses and seasoned runners from the same barn. The DRF/Equibase has those workout tabs available. Finally, look for high percentage 2YO debut trainers. Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer are two examples. The DRF has trainer reports and BrisNet supplies the same information in there pp’s.
Lastly, will share one of Jeremy Plonk’s tips, “expect improvement from 1st to 2nd start, especially those who broke from the rail in their debut, or are changing distance/surface/rider or show improvement in workouts.” I would like to add equipment too, blinkers being the big one.
