We all know that Bob Baffert is a great trainer, and has a marvelous stable of 2YO’s. Even though, I believed Brigand would continue to show us another Baffert winner, I was happy for Mike Harrington to bring us a great looking horse in Creative Cause. He is everything his first race showed, and Bejarano set him up perfectly. Well done to the connections and we can expect great things from this 2YO going forward. (The race replay is below). Race analysis at HANA
In looking at the rest of the field, my choice, I’ll Have Another went off at a nice price of 6-1 and raced well. Took the lead and really didn’t relent to the better horse till near the end. I expect we will see big things of him too. The big surprise was Mighty Monsoon (Bombs Away choice). He got off to a terrible start, lagged the field and down the stretch kicked into gear. Not sure if a better start would have helped him in catching Creative Cause, but he was flying at the end. Look for him to show up in routes and grass events.
Brigand and Galex were disappointments. Both pressed early and seemed to vanish on the turn for home and Night Tide showed nothing. I mentioned in the analysis a concern about Night Tide grittiness and he showed again no fire. Not sure how I see him going forward. I do expect to see Brigand come back and do well, thinking this might have been a race regression from last out effort. He’ll be back.
Enjoy the race replay and see you later in the week.
Showing posts with label Baffert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baffert. Show all posts
Monday, August 8, 2011
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Tale of Two Races -7th at DelMar
Before I dive into the 7th race at Del Mar, wanted to share a gimmick angle from Marc Cramer. It is really simple and requires no handicapping. Simply look at the handicapper grid from the DRF and look for the one horse that is selected to win that no other handicapper mentions at all. Today in the 6th at Del Mar, the horse, Memphis qualifies. Hermes selected him to win, the other selectors didn’t not even mention him. Per Marc Cramer be prepared for long losing streaks with this angle but when they hit the mutual’s are large!
One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.
Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.
When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:
1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?
2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.
3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.
That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.
Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.
1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.
2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.
3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.
I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.
One other notation, would highly recommend that you place Meistersinger (3C) in your virtual stable. This lightly raced 3 YO trained by Graham Motion raced last week at Delaware in an Optional Claiming event against older horses and handled the field easily. Keep an eye out for him to start hitting the stakes circuit soon.
Now the 7th race at Del Mar. I have had people ask me how I choose my races during the week to handicap. My process is rather simple; I take the race of the day at the DRF. I will admit I focus on some more than others, but I’ve found the variety is a challenge and get exposed to various tracks. So today they chose the Optional Claiming race for Non-Winners of 2, 3YO+ fillies/mares.
When I looked at this race, what made it attractive was that it had a little bit of everything. Two lightly raced 3 YO’s, one 5 YO that was finding herself, and three 4YO’s that have shown they are definite contenders on any given day. Breaking the race down further, it became apparent there was two races within it. There are three horses that were ready to win and others that could wake up and find their old form. So here is a quick rundown:
The three Amigas:
1. Awesomemunda (#5), trained by Baffert. This filly is making its fifth start as a 3 YO and has shown that she will have an outstanding career. Broke her maiden on third asking by 4 ½ lengths and comes right back to win OC62Kn1x. Both wins were at 1 1/16 so distance is no issue. Her Beyer’s have improved over the four races (66-71-76-82). The question I have is has she reached her peak in this cycle? I profess not to be a form cycle expert, but I do know that 3 YO’s usually put in a strong number before regression. Was that 82 it? Or does she hit 90 today and then regress?
2. Elives Lane( #6), trained by Hollendorfer. She cracked her maiden second out as a 2 YO at GG as a sprinter. When she turned three they brought her to HOL and it looks like they were trying to figure out was she a dirt of turf horse? The last two races she has been in routes and her Beyer’s improved to 82-83 and raced cleaner. She has had good works and Rosario takes over. If she holds her form she could find the wire.
3. Toro Bonito(#4), another Baffert entry. She is a 5YO with 22 races, and only 2 wins. Her last win was her last outing clearing the OC40K/N1x. It took her quite a while to clear this condition but this is another horse where it appears they couldn’t define if she was a router or sprinter. Resulting in a miserable 2010 campaign as a 4 YO with a 0 for 9 record. As a 5YO they have settled her in 1 1/16 and she improved dramatically with one win and two seconds. Her Beyer’s have been consistent (81-81-81), and that is what you look for in a 5YO. This race she gets Bajarano who hits 35% with Baffert and blinkers off. At 3-1 ML she is an attractive choice.
That takes care of the first race. Three strong ladies, and I lean to Toro Bonito getting the best of the youngsters. Especially if she holds 3-1 or higher.
Now the second race. Three 4YO fillies. Each one knows how to win, have hit high Beyer’s but the challenge is where are they now in their form cycle. Here is a quick look, starting from the outside working in on chances to upset.
1. Catchy Tune(#3) at 6-1. Cleared her maiden at third asking last year and then won right back in an AllowanceN1x with strong Beyers (81-84). The next two races at SA were strong performances in a stakes and a non winner of 2x with better Beyers (84-88), then she regressed and was laid off. Returned this June in a turf sprint and finished 3rd in a non winners of 2. The big concern for her is all her races have been on turf, and not a big fan of the one sprint to route angle.
2. Downhill Diva (#2). This is the dangerous filly. Has won 4 out of 15, shows a consistent form pattern and has hit the highest Beyer’s of this group (last cycle: 81-82-91-87). She took a five month breather and has had two sprints (May/June), one on turf but improving form and good workouts at DelMar. If she rises above her 6-1 ML, she could be the value play.
3. Pure Class (#1), a recent claim off of John Sadler. Mark Glatt brought her right back in a stakes race at PLN and finished a good 3rd against a tough field. The DFR states that the winner of that stakes race came back to win another one, and the second place horse just missed in the Osunitas at Del Mar. Two interesting points with this filly, is that since she turned four, her Beyers spiked up into the 80’s and Glatt is staying with Sanguinettia in the irons. I know nothing about this jockey, but a lot of good riders are sitting in the jockey room for this race. Last item, she beat Toro Bonito back in May at HOL by 3 ¾. Interesting play if she escapes above her 4-1 ML.
I’m leaning towards Toro Bonito if the price is square, if not then it will be tough to decide between Downhill Diva or Pure Class. Then again, I won’t be disappointed if the two youngsters run off and duel for the win! Good luck it will be a fun race.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Instinctual Winner At Monmouth and gotta love 2YO's
Whoever said, “Less is more” made have been on to something, I was out of town this weekend and had little time to handicap the nine races for the Survival at the Shore Tournament at Monmouth Park. The result was four winners and one third out of nine races. That got me thinking. I have said time and again that I deny my instincts and do too much analysis, which I know believe leads to paralysis. The lessoned learned is, “less is more.”
Two examples of that would be the selection of Romacaca in the Taylor Made Matchmaker (G3) and Coil in the Haskell (G1). In regards to Romacaca, she had won five previous starts; I had her back on July 3rd when she won the Miss Liberty. I took a quick look at the field and didn’t see anyone that was in better form than her. Played the recent winner angle moving up in class and paid $13.20 to win!
In looking at the Haskell, I dumbed (me not Baffert) it down and went with Baffert. His barn is red hot, and since none of the big names being bandied about have impressed me, I took the connections angle and Coil gave one of those Animal Kingdom finishes. The result was a tidy $8.40 payoff. Now if I can just remember this every weekend. Listen to the inner voice grasshopper!
There is one great race to share from this weekend; #4 Winter Memories winning the Lake George (G2), it was exceptional. When you watch it notice at the ¾ pole, Jose Lezcano had to almost bring Winter Memories to a complete stop, after that what takes place is spectacular.
On a handicapping note, if you have not had the opportunity to attend Night School brought to you by HorseplayerNow, please do so. I attended a couple of weeks ago on the topic of 2 year olds. The panel was excellent, well versed and answered all our questions. What I found interesting was the tidbits of information you got when the panelist would talk amongst themselves. I would like to share a few things I learned. In 2 year olds it’s about pedigree, workouts and trainers. In pedigree, look for a high percentage 2YO debut sires, like Tapit. There was a discussion that the dam is now becoming just as important. With workouts, it’s not just the bullet workouts that matter, but also works with top horses and seasoned runners from the same barn. The DRF/Equibase has those workout tabs available. Finally, look for high percentage 2YO debut trainers. Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer are two examples. The DRF has trainer reports and BrisNet supplies the same information in there pp’s.
Lastly, will share one of Jeremy Plonk’s tips, “expect improvement from 1st to 2nd start, especially those who broke from the rail in their debut, or are changing distance/surface/rider or show improvement in workouts.” I would like to add equipment too, blinkers being the big one.
Two examples of that would be the selection of Romacaca in the Taylor Made Matchmaker (G3) and Coil in the Haskell (G1). In regards to Romacaca, she had won five previous starts; I had her back on July 3rd when she won the Miss Liberty. I took a quick look at the field and didn’t see anyone that was in better form than her. Played the recent winner angle moving up in class and paid $13.20 to win!
In looking at the Haskell, I dumbed (me not Baffert) it down and went with Baffert. His barn is red hot, and since none of the big names being bandied about have impressed me, I took the connections angle and Coil gave one of those Animal Kingdom finishes. The result was a tidy $8.40 payoff. Now if I can just remember this every weekend. Listen to the inner voice grasshopper!
There is one great race to share from this weekend; #4 Winter Memories winning the Lake George (G2), it was exceptional. When you watch it notice at the ¾ pole, Jose Lezcano had to almost bring Winter Memories to a complete stop, after that what takes place is spectacular.
On a handicapping note, if you have not had the opportunity to attend Night School brought to you by HorseplayerNow, please do so. I attended a couple of weeks ago on the topic of 2 year olds. The panel was excellent, well versed and answered all our questions. What I found interesting was the tidbits of information you got when the panelist would talk amongst themselves. I would like to share a few things I learned. In 2 year olds it’s about pedigree, workouts and trainers. In pedigree, look for a high percentage 2YO debut sires, like Tapit. There was a discussion that the dam is now becoming just as important. With workouts, it’s not just the bullet workouts that matter, but also works with top horses and seasoned runners from the same barn. The DRF/Equibase has those workout tabs available. Finally, look for high percentage 2YO debut trainers. Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer are two examples. The DRF has trainer reports and BrisNet supplies the same information in there pp’s.
Lastly, will share one of Jeremy Plonk’s tips, “expect improvement from 1st to 2nd start, especially those who broke from the rail in their debut, or are changing distance/surface/rider or show improvement in workouts.” I would like to add equipment too, blinkers being the big one.
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