Thursday, July 28, 2011

Quick Call from Saratoga left me hanging

Well, I said it would be a tough race and even with three scratches, the best my choice can do is come in dead last. I haven't seen the video replay but in looking at the fractions, it would appear the pace was brutally fast, and with his best Beyer being 81, he may have been just to slow for this group.

I would suggest you put these three finishers in your virtual stable, am sure we will hear from them again.

Congrats to Great Mills and the Asmussen/Leparoux connection. He went off as the co favorite with Royal Currier and paid a nice $7.20 mutual.

Conditions: Quick Call S. , Stakes, $78,000, Open 3 yo, 5 1/2F, Turf.
Off Time: 4:23 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm (Rail at 12 ft) Weather: Clear 80o
Pedigree: 8 - Great Mills, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 3, by War Front - Oriental Glitter by Glitterman

Fractions: :211, :434, :551, 1:011 (:21.34, :43.80, :55.25, 1:01.31)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Great Mills Leparoux Julien R. 118 7.20 4.30 3.60
10 Fudgesicle Rocco, Jr. Joseph 116 7.10 4.90
3 Bug Juice Castellano Javier 118 5.90

Owner: Millennium Farms
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Breeder: Millennium Farms (KY)
Also Ran: 1 - Nutmegcuveeroyale, 7 - Longhunter (GB), 2 - Fastest Magician, 9 - Shmooz Talker, 6 - Royal Currier
Scratched: Run Arnie Run, Philippe, Higher Court

Saratoga Quick Call

Today at Saratoga we have the Quick Call Stakes with a Purse of $75,000 for 3 y/o’s going 5.5f on Turf. This field is loaded with great up and coming 3 y/o turf sprinters. Of the 11 entrants, seven are speed burners; all have great Beyers and solid pedigrees. When you look at the connections for this race, it reads like a who’s who of thoroughbred racing. There are a lot of angles you can play here, you could eliminate a few based on pole position. Most statistics show the one hole to be a deathtrap at Saratoga, so maybe question mark Nutmegcuveeroyale and Fastest Magician. That feels strange to discount horses from Linda Rice and Barclay Tagg!

You could look at the class factor and scratch off: Higher Court, Run Arnie Run, Schmooz Talker and Fudgesicle, based on them not winning anything more than allowance or maiden races. That leaves us with five contenders. Now the challenge is which one can get to the front and hold up on the Saratoga turf? What if it rains? The grass goes to good or off the turf? This is one of those races you might think to pass on, watch for the ones that are improving and place them in your stable. But then, what fun is that? So here goes my selection …

Royal Currier is where I am headed. He has 12 races under his belt, winning six of them. Last out at Monmouth was his first turf sprint and won 1 ¼ lengths. The Beyer for that first turf race was pedestrian in relation to this group, but going to stick with some intangibles this time. They are as follows:

• Patricia Farro is an excellent turf sprint trainer (21 for 52 with a ROI over $4.00). She scratched him out of a $150K stakes race back on July 3rd and now he is in Saratoga. Not sure if she brought a string or not, but she has no other entries today. I didn’t have time to check my Saratoga sources to find out.
• Shipping in from Monmouth, why? Tomorrow at Monmouth there is a $65k Stakes race, but she brings him up to Saratoga for $75K race. She could have stayed home, and it is Haskell weekend at Monmouth. Was this a targeted race for him?
• In 11 of his 12 races, one of the top three has gone on to win again. I do like the key race factor.
• Bravo comes with him and it’s his only mount for the day. At Monmouth he is one of the best on turf. He is on the Monmouth card tomorrow, so one and done at Saratoga.
• Royal Currier is versatile; he can go to the front or just sit off the pace. He also draws a nice post position coming out of the sixth slot. With a morning line of 5/1, he should get a nice price maybe slip to an overlay.

Today, I go with instincts in a very tough race. Like his experience, knows how to win, raced against winners, and excellent connections. Lastly, have to ask myself, what is Farro up to? She’s not here for a vacation that I do know.