Play of the Day: 3rd at Santa Anita 4/5/2012

We hit a dud at Aqueduct yesterday with Time Marches On.  First, we didn't get our price and then he ran up the track. I read the race overview and it said he broke late and seemed out of it all the way around. Not sure what the story was, but that is racing as they say.  Today, we'll head over to Santa Anita and look at the 3rd race.  It's an Allowance affair for $58,000N1X for 3YO fillies going 61/2 furlongs on the grass.  It'll be run on the downhill course, which can be tricky for some horses.

The one that sticks out is Art Sherman's #9 Lovestealer ML 6/1.  She broke her maiden last out, over this turf course. She has shown consistent Beyer's on the lawn and is cutting back in distance today.  Sherman sports an excellent record across the board in all the angles (route/sprint/ layoff/won last/allowance).  Also, in her maiden win, the second place finisher along with the eighth place horse have come back to win their maidens on turf with 70+ Beyer's. I like that Sherman made a change in the saddle to Pedroza, that should help. Our problem is getting our value, 6/1 would be a good price for her, and if we got that or higher, then she is the play. However, I have a feeling she is going to slip down on the odds, then we go with  ...

#4 Clodhopper(IRE) ML 8/1

She will be making her debut for Doug O'Neill and had a respectable record in Great Britain. Won 3 of 4 as a 3YO and has shown improving Racing Post Ratings.  Those wins came over synthetic but her breeding shows the lawn will be no problem for her.  Two other factors to help her will be first time lasix and a weight drop. Lastly, Eswan Flores will ride and has done well riding for O'Neill.  The angle here is that imports do very well their first time on USA grass, and if we get a good price she is worth a look.  I think she can get 10/1 or higher in this event.  She is a proven winner, likes to rate of the pace and see no reason to sneak in to win it.

It'll come down to the tale of the tote, and I see the #4 becoming the overlay.  

Play of the Day: 6st Race @ Turf Paradise 04/02/2012

We hit a nice one yesterday with Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap at the Fair Grounds. He went off at 10/1 and paid $20.60.  Since I blogged that pick over at horseplayersassociation.org I don't count it as part of this blog, but still an nice pick. Coupled with Hit It Rich winning the Orchid on Saturday, it was a real good weekend.

Now back to reality, today we are catching some rays down at Turf Paradise. This is an interesting condition. Maiden Optional Claiming ($30,000) going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass for 3YO and upwards. There are two possibles here, but the challenge is do we get the value we need? Last week we didn't get too much action, and I fear in this race we might get shut out, but let's take a shot.

#5  Southern Sculptor ML 5/1

The angle here is shipping in from Santa Anita, with three consecutive hammerings in his 4YO season.  Jeff Metz takes over as trainer, were he scores 16% on 1st timers, not a bad stat. A jockey switch and cut back in distance.  His running style says this won't help, but Metz may throw a curve and have Medina take him out. His second and third back showed a bit of speed and toss in two decent works he might be ready to fire.  To get any value here he would have to float up to 9/1, otherwise I would move to the next one.

#6 Pharo's Gold ML 6/1

This will be the fourth start for this 5YO colt. This will be his second try under Whitehouse's tutelage, and Wilton's record is zero for 14.  What I do like is that Whitehouse is razor sharp with dirt to turf and turf races.  The angle here is that he improved in his last, gets a bit more distance that might help and the Whitehouse/Lopez connection hits 29% of the time for  $4.05 ROI.  If the tote takes him to 9/1 or better I would play him over the #5.

Play of the Day: 7th at Santa Anita 03/30/2012

We are having a tough week getting any action going.  Yesterday Henney's Hurricane, opened at 12/1 and went off at 10/1, so there would have been no play. I think what hurt our chances at the tote was Beso Grande scratching, he would have pulled action, and we might have seen our value. Now to the race itself, she lagged all the way around and then woke up and finished 5th. She might be worth putting in your virtual stable and see where she shows up next.

Today, we go to the west coast and play the 7th at Santa Anita.  It's allowance race going 61/2 furlongs on the downhill  turf for 4YO+.  Purse is $63,000 for horses which have never won $10,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred or which have never won four races.  I have to say, it has become an art form for the people that write conditions for the tracks! Okay, there are two in here I like, one I would play as a straight win bet, even though I don't think he will old his morning line. The other is is a long shot play.

#8  Red Defense ML 3/1

There will be no value here, it would be nice to think this lightly raced 5YO would hold 3/1 or higher but I don't think so.  He has won 5 of 9, with only won bad race to his record.  His Beyer's have improved nicely since starting out his 5YO season. Workouts have been good, Carla Gaines is a super good trainer and Rosario (21% on turf) is back on board.  I like the cut back in distance  and coming right back, shows he is ready to go. The one thing I do find interesting is, he won his first 4 with blinkers on, since taking them off he is one of five. If we can get 3/1 or higher I would put $10 win, less than 3/1 just watch him race.

The long shot today is the #1 Yankee Saratoga ML 15/1

What is this our third layoff in a row?   After winning his maiden as a 3YO, he ripped off 3 wins in 6 starts, then he skipped is 4YO season. Today he returns to the grass where he has won 2 of 3 lifetime, Jerry Hollendorfer has taken over the training. Hollendorfer's record with first timers is 24% and he hits 21% on sprints so a nice angle here. Workouts have been solid and you could stretch the key race angle as well. He gets Mike Smith who has a 17% win record on the turf and crafty in his own right. We know the issues here, the one hole on the downhill course is not easy, what are Hollendorfers intentions today, but he did win coming off a six month lay off in the past. So I would risk a stack bet if we get 15/1 or higher.  

Quick Call from Saratoga left me hanging

Well, I said it would be a tough race and even with three scratches, the best my choice can do is come in dead last. I haven't seen the video replay but in looking at the fractions, it would appear the pace was brutally fast, and with his best Beyer being 81, he may have been just to slow for this group.

I would suggest you put these three finishers in your virtual stable, am sure we will hear from them again.

Congrats to Great Mills and the Asmussen/Leparoux connection. He went off as the co favorite with Royal Currier and paid a nice $7.20 mutual.

Conditions: Quick Call S. , Stakes, $78,000, Open 3 yo, 5 1/2F, Turf.
Off Time: 4:23 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm (Rail at 12 ft) Weather: Clear 80o
Pedigree: 8 - Great Mills, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 3, by War Front - Oriental Glitter by Glitterman

Fractions: :211, :434, :551, 1:011 (:21.34, :43.80, :55.25, 1:01.31)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Great Mills Leparoux Julien R. 118 7.20 4.30 3.60
10 Fudgesicle Rocco, Jr. Joseph 116 7.10 4.90
3 Bug Juice Castellano Javier 118 5.90

Owner: Millennium Farms
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Breeder: Millennium Farms (KY)
Also Ran: 1 - Nutmegcuveeroyale, 7 - Longhunter (GB), 2 - Fastest Magician, 9 - Shmooz Talker, 6 - Royal Currier
Scratched: Run Arnie Run, Philippe, Higher Court