There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet. Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland. It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass. A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one. There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.
#1 State of Play ML 3/1
First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2. He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park. He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting. The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.
#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1
This would be my price play. I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance. There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max? As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help. Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.
#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2
You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out. The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations. I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value. This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.
So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.
Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon. I would like to wish all a great Holiday weekend.
