Play of the Day: 5th Race at Calder 4/27/2012

In the Bewitch yesterday our selection, Woodford Belle gave us a good race finishing second to Upperline. We  also got the overlay on her but since she was less than 10/1 it would have been a $12 win bet so we lose.  Today, I let my computer pick the race since I couldn't find anything that wow'ed me and the penalty for that is we get a maiden claiming race! It's the 5th race at Calder Race Course for 3YO maidens going a mile and a sixteenth on grass, claiming price is $25,000. What's interesting about this field of ten, with the exception of two, they are lightly raced.

There are three horses that have caught my eye and the first being #4 Kurhah ML 5/1.  He is shipping in from Tampa Bay Downs for his sixth start.  His last two turf efforts weren't bad, and in fact his last one he really got after it.  He seems to be gradually improving under Chris Garrison who does well in these situations. The breeding is there and he is the only one that flashed some recent speed.  Adding Jara only helps the cause.

The next one is #6 Dreaming of Danny ML 3/1, he is another shipper but from Gulfstream Park.  He has two turf efforts and today is stretching out a bit more.  Luiz Ramirez takes over from Nick Canani and drops him down a level today.  Ramirez has an excellent record with 1st timers under his wing and keeps Saez on board.  In his last race he really bumped up going a mile and pressed the pace into the stretch before giving way. He has had a workout from the gate and ran a snappy 4F.  The problem is that he will be an underlay when it's all said and done.

The third one is #8 Goldsome ML 8/1.  This will be his second start at Calder and first time on turf and going to a route. He is a total angle play for this race.  First off we get a stretch out and surface change.  Braddy puts a hot jockey on board in Rodriguez and adds blinkers.  In his first race he got off slowly and since then had a decent workout from the gate. Braddy has a good record with Maiden second starts and the sprint to route play. The pedigree is solid and we should see a big improvement today.  Of the three, he is the one I would take the shot on, a long shot play if you will.  He has to go off at 12/1 or higher to warrant the risk. If not then I would take a look at #4 at 5/1 or better.

Like a maiden claiming races, you just never know who will wake up and take the winners circle!

Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012

We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne.  The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play.  Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it.  I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.

So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off.  There are no listed scratches at this time.

The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace.  We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass.  When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1.  She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events.  Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3).  She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now.  I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price.  Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.

Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012

We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification.  There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically.  With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race.  In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him.  What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable.  Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5.  With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense.   Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race.  We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day.  So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.

Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24^th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf.  Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse.   In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat.  He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth.   Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today.  She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group.   The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money.  So the final question is to play or lay?

So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa?  There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1.  In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck.  She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile.  I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses.  If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.

Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1.  She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style.  Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs.  The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price.  She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass.  The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse.  He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.

Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher. 

Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/13/2012

Yesterday in the Madison, Home Sweet Aspen totally tanked after the start and Ariana D finished strong for show. The odds were right for both of them so would have played $2 win, $4 place on Home Sweet Aspen and $6 show on Ariana D. So for our $12 play we would have gotten back $18.60 (Ariana D paid $6.20 to show) for a profit of $6.60.

Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000.  Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it.  If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.

He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida.  Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on.  It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise.  At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.

Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/12/2012

Our choice yesterday, Silent Thunder went off at 6 1/2/1, not quite where we would have liked but close enough if the show pool was good enough for a decent payout. Regardless, he finished 7th after a good start and was in the hunt till the stretch and then faded badly.  So we are off the board this week so far and today's race is no easy one either.  Today we go to Keeneland for the 8th Race, the Madison (G1) for fillies and mares 4YO+ going 7 furlongs on the synthetic.  The purse is $300,000 and we have a field of 10 sprinting for it.

I'll say it right off, this is a field that every entrant has a legitimate shot at winning this race. In fact, I would pass on this race and enjoy watching it for the sport of it.  We know Musical Romance will go off as the favorite with Groupie Doll and La Reine Lionne right behind her, but there are others here I do like, so today I will offer up three choices.  The tote board will be the deciding factor on two, the other is the one that I would play on a straight win bet.

My choice to win the race is #1 Home Sweet Aspen ML 6/1.

John Sadler brings in this 4YO filly from Santa Anita were she won the G1 Santa Monica back in January.  She has won 4 of 10 starts and has been on the board 7 times total.  Her last outing was a step back and not sure if it was just an off day or is she starting to decline in form, but you can't overlook her in this spot.  There is really no front end speed in this race but her, so it would look like a perfect set up to go wire to wire. Sadler brings Rosario with him so you know they mean business and that connection hits 25% on over 300 starts.  Asking to get 6/1 might be too rich but even at 5/2 she would is a nice selection.

The next selection is one of my favorites, so I will admit I'm a bit blind by her and that is #9 Ariana D ML 6/1.  We know she likes the synthetic, winning 8 of 24 on it.  She has won 2 of 2 tries here at Keeneland and handles the 7 furlong distance easily.  The angle here is she is shipping in from Woodbine, coming off a 5 month layoff, new trainer in Andy McKeever and pick ups Lezcano today.  Those elements make her an interesting play.  The challenge is that in her past, she has done okay off a layoff but never won, and she has not won a graded race (plenty of 2nd's).  So the question you have to ask yourself, why a G1 race coming off the bench? It would appear to be a bit aggressive based on her past, but then you have to wonder is she ready to fire?  On a final note, of those 8 wins only one was as the favorite, she usually wins with a price.  Anything over 6/1 will pull money from my wallet.

The price play is #3 Whipsaw City(FR) ML 12/1.  This filly is a dangerous one shipping in from GP. Back to back turf wins down there and now steps into a G1 event. She has won on the synthetic in France and should have not trouble with it here. A cut back in distance will only help and she could take off and challenge Home Sweet Aspen on the front end.  Finally Chad Brown (28% on 2nd off layoff) is one tough trainer in these situations and Leparoux stays on board.  No doubt this is a big step up the class ladder, but she has all the makings to win it.

Play of the Day: Transylvania G3 @Keeneland 4/6/2012

There isn't much to say about our race at Santa Anita yesterday. Lovestealer scratched and then Clodhopper(IRE) never made the odds we needed for the risk and came in 7th. We had our one good race on Monday, and like last week it's been quiet.  Today we get a treat, a Graded Race on the opening day at Keeneland.  It's the Grade 3, Transylvania for 3YO going a mile and sixteenth on the grass.  A field of 7 has entered for a purse of $100,000, and it's a good group in this one.  There are 3 I like, and it will depend where the tote takes us which one we play.

#1 State of Play ML 3/1

First problem is getting our price of 3/1 or even 5/2.  He is 3 of 5 overall, and 2 of 3 on Turf, including a G2 win as a 2YO. His last 2 efforts have been on dirt, losing in the Davis at Tampa and then a nice bounce back in the Battaglia at Turfway Park.  He has beaten some good 3YO in the past, has the right pace for this one, and Motion/Velazquez connection is frosting.  The issue is we would like to dream that we will see our ML hold, but sadly he will be bet down to nothing.

#2 Wayward Sailor ML 12/1

This would be my price play.  I'm going to toss out his last at the FG over a yielding course and a shorter distance.  There is no doubt he will go out with Silver Max and try to set the pace, the question is how fast is Silver Max?  As most know reading this blog, I'm a Michael Maker fan and think he found a nice spot for this colt. I expect this 3YO to return to his routing form, and adding Garcia to the saddle should help.  Anything above 9/1 would still hold my attention.

#7 Icon Ike ML 7/2

You got the classic horse for course at the Fair Grounds. Won 3 in a row in turf sprints there and now stretching out.  The play here is Larry Jones, he is one sharp trainer, and is solid in these situations.  I like the switch to Menae, good recent workout and at 7/2 would be a decent value.  This is one you have to watch the board, anything at ML or higher I would take it.

So at the end when they are at the gate, we'll be looking at two plays. Wayward Sailor for our price of 9/1 or better and a tighter pick with Icon Mike at 7/2 or better. If both work up the tote board, consider a split bet, or go with your gut.

Tomorrow will be blogging over at horseplayersassociation.org. and will be posting a Saturday Night Special in the afternoon.  I would like to wish all  a great Holiday weekend.