Play of the Day: 8th Race at Keeneland, The Bewitch (G3) 4/26/2012

We got a nice a run from Lefty's Legacy yesterday at Hawthorne.  The filly almost held on to go wire to wire, too bad the odds went haywire. She was a morning line 10/1 and went off at almost even money, so we had no play.  Interesting that Prima Donna Pirate that was 2/1 morning line went off at 3/1, a slight overlay and she did win it.  I was also happy to see Live Today have a good effort, she finished sixth, but ran forwardly and was in the hunt until the deep stretch, good for her, and Christine Janks.

So today it's Thursday and we head over to Keeneland to look at another turf race, the 51st running of The Grey Goose Bewtich(G3) for fillies and mares 4YO and upwards going a marathon mile and a half. The purse is $150,000 and we have eight going off.  There are no listed scratches at this time.

The challenge with this race is not the distance but there is no front end pace.  We have a lot of talented ladies but most are closer's or stalkers which without some pace can gum up their day, especially on grass.  When it's all said and done the one I like the most is, #4 Woodford Belle ML 3/1.  She has had four turf races under her belt since coming over from Great Britain and the last two in G3 events.  Each race she has improved and just missed in the Orchid (G3).  She will be facing the #1 Here to Win(BRZ) again but I believe Michelle Nihei has her dialed in now.  I also like that she has won at this distance on grass and picking Leparoux only helps. At 3/1 that is a bit aggressive, thinking #3 Senada should be at that price.  Anything over 4/1 on Woodford Belle would make her playable. It's a highly competitive race and again without any real pace it's anyone's game, but I will take the improving mare any day.

Play of the Day: 8th at Keeneland 4/19/2012

We finally hit the winners circle yesterday at Penn National with Becca’s Run winning through disqualification.  There were three scratches, with Charge being the one that would change the odds dramatically.  With that 5/1 off the table it only increased the chances for Window Boy and Becca’s Run to win the race.  In the end, Window Boy left the gate at even money, and that was way too low for the reservations I had about him.  What we did learn is he can win at a mile, and that he was the class of the field, will add him to the virtual stable.  Now in regards to Becca’s Run, I had him at 5/2 and he went off at 8/5.  With the scratch of Charge, the odds would have to be reduced and 8/5 would make sense.   Our longshot play, Behemoth went off at 5/1 which would be a no play, and sadly he ran a rank race.  We will have to label him a child prodigy and just hope he can find a level to win at one day.  So the play was $12 to win on Becca’s Run and she paid $5.20 which gave us a return of $31.20 for a net profit of $19.20.

Today, we get a Grade 3 race at Keeneland, the 24^th running of The Appalachian. It’s for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf.  Nine have entered for the $100,000 purse.   In looking over the field it’s pretty clear that the #1 Dayatthespa ML 8/5 is clearly the one to beat.  He has won three of five, the last one being a G3 event at GP over the turf going a mile and eighth.   Chad Brown excels in situations like this and I see no reason for this filly to have any problems today.  She has been working out consistently, has the running style to get out front and never look back with this group.   The only issue is what is a fair price? 8/5 is too high for her, she should be at 6/5 for openers, but I think when the gate opens she will be below even money.  So the final question is to play or lay?

So is there anyone in the field that can take a run at Dayatthespa?  There are three with potential and each would need a big effort to pull it off. The first one, would the #8 Regalo Mia ML 5/1.  In her last outing she finished second to Dayatthespa in a G3 race, missing by a neck.  She is cutting back in distance and not sure if her stalking style fits a mile.  I do respect Michelle Nihei and she does bring in ready to run horses.  If Castanon pushes her up towards to front she might get there this time.

Next up is #4 Somali Lemonade ML 9/5 and should be opening at 3/1.  She will be making her 3YO debut in this event and she has one G3 win under her belt at Keeneland on turf. Granted it was on a yielding course that day and it fit her closing style.  Her speed is competitive and would expect to see a big improvement as a 3YO. Her works have been strong and you can’t ignore Michael Matz wining 25% on layoffs.  The last one is, #6 Firehouse Red ML 12/1 and that is a fair price.  She won two of four at the Fair Grounds both going a mile on grass.  The speed fig’s are paltry compared to the other contenders, but you can’t turn your nose up at a Larry Jones horse.  He might have entered her to see what her ceiling level is but with a switch to Albarado coupled with Jones winning 32% in stakes race makes her a nice longshot opportunity.

Our play is to bet Dayatthespa to $6 win if she goes at 6/5 or better and drop $6 to show on Firehouse Red if she is at 12/1 or higher. 

Play of the Day: 8th race @Keeneland 4/13/2012

Yesterday in the Madison, Home Sweet Aspen totally tanked after the start and Ariana D finished strong for show. The odds were right for both of them so would have played $2 win, $4 place on Home Sweet Aspen and $6 show on Ariana D. So for our $12 play we would have gotten back $18.60 (Ariana D paid $6.20 to show) for a profit of $6.60.

Today we stay at Keeneland and will again go for the 8th Race, another G1 event but this time for the boys 4YO+. It's the Makers 46 Mile on turf for a purse of $300,000.  Right off the bat we know Get Stormy and Turallure will garner the action and are super strong entries to win it.  If you want to go outside and look for the upset factor I like the #4 Big Blue Kitten.

He had a great 3YO season winning 5 of 7, all 5 in a row and capped that run winning the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga. With every race his speed fig's improved even with a so so performance down in Florida.  Today will be a cut back in distance after a short layoff which is an attractive play, he gets Johnny V back and of course Chad Brown is excellent in these situations, with 25% win on turf and the work out patterns are spot on.  It's a big step today but he has never missed the board yet, and has all the ability to surprise.  At 8/1 or higher I would jump on him, if he drifts down to say 6/1 then I would take the show action if the pool warrants it.