Today we have a fun race on opening day at Del Mar. 8th race, one mile on Turf, the Oceanside $100K. 3 y/o non winners of a sweepstakes of $50,000.
Right off the bat, the favorite will be John Shirreffs, Mr. Commons. He is returning from a 60 day layoff after running 8th in the Preakness. He did have a solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), being the show horse. He has only raced once on turf, a 6.5f affair in January and ran a with it by 5.5 lengths, hitting a 92 Beyer. Breeding suggests that he should be solid on grass and Mike Smith is back in the irons. I guess what makes me believe he is vulnerable is that he hasn’t raced a mile or longer on turf. Winning routes on dirt is one thing, but now moving back to grass and in a route, I’m not sold and especially at a short price. There are others that could threaten, and while their forms are not conclusive you could make a strong case for Burns, Extensive and reaching out there maybe Moment of Weakness(IRE).
In that vein, the one that has captured my interest is Temple Door. It’s had three races, winning two and a third. Speed is in the 80’s and rates just of the front runners. Even though this contest doesn’t exhibit much front speed, he could end up taking off. He has won at this distance and longer, good works and is trained by Carla Gaines who has a good record with stake turf horses. Add Chantal Sutherland on board and could be an interesting play. Morning line is a handsome 6-1 and anything close would play it.
I've had a tough run in the stakes races of late, so let's see if Temple Door can break it open for me and get back on track in the States.
